PA, S/R, ZL, EXTREMES & MOMO

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cfabian
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Postby cfabian » Tue Mar 15, 2011 6:54 pm

Here's a loser from today.
I had other 2 as well.

Some days I feel this is simple, I can see setups and stuff on the charts and images, but realtime has been ugly.

Probably I will switch to exclusively look for trades on H1- H4, wait or momo on those timeframes, retrace, and entry with smaller TF.

Geeeez, 3 yrs on this and still struggling like hell.

Image
WILL GET MY MONEY BACK FROM THOSE BASTARDS, AND I MEAN IT !!!!!
"WAIT FOR PRICE, WAIT FOR PRICE, WAIT FOR PRICE"

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adaseb
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Postby adaseb » Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:36 pm

cfabian wrote:Here's a loser from today.
I had other 2 as well.

Some days I feel this is simple, I can see setups and stuff on the charts and images, but realtime has been ugly.

Probably I will switch to exclusively look for trades on H1- H4, wait or momo on those timeframes, retrace, and entry with smaller TF.

Geeeez, 3 yrs on this and still struggling like hell.

Image


in the future don't enter a reversal trade on a strong trend just because you get some momo on the m15 chart. despite there being a h4,d1,w1 mightyzone in that area.

let price attempt to make a high/low and fail and then look to enter on a momo bar.


also in my opinion your -20 stop is too large for this type of trading.

typically when you enter, price should put you into profit, usually it goes back to your entry and tries to trick you and scare you out of your trade. observe and if you notice a strong move against you, get out and enter at a better price.

sometimes you get out and the trade works anyways, nothing you can do about that, don't go chasing it.


good luck.

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adaseb
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Postby adaseb » Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:37 pm

cfabian wrote:Here's a loser from today.
I had other 2 as well.

Some days I feel this is simple, I can see setups and stuff on the charts and images, but realtime has been ugly.

Probably I will switch to exclusively look for trades on H1- H4, wait or momo on those timeframes, retrace, and entry with smaller TF.

Geeeez, 3 yrs on this and still struggling like hell.

Image


in the future don't enter a reversal trade on a strong trend just because you get some momo on the m15 chart. despite there being a h4,d1,w1 mightyzone in that area.

let price attempt to make a high/low and fail and then look to enter on a momo bar.


also in my opinion your -20 stop is too large for this type of trading.

typically when you enter, price should put you into profit, usually it goes back to your entry and tries to trick you and scare you out of your trade. observe and if you notice a strong move against you, get out and enter at a better price.

sometimes you get out and the trade works anyways, nothing you can do about that, don't go chasing it.


good luck.

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cfabian
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Postby cfabian » Tue Mar 15, 2011 8:30 pm

Edit: Multiple post, site is screwing up.
WILL GET MY MONEY BACK FROM THOSE BASTARDS, AND I MEAN IT !!!!!

"WAIT FOR PRICE, WAIT FOR PRICE, WAIT FOR PRICE"

FXfreak
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Postby FXfreak » Wed Mar 16, 2011 7:59 am

long 65

-3
Last edited by FXfreak on Wed Mar 16, 2011 9:07 am, edited 1 time in total.

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newscalper
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Postby newscalper » Wed Mar 16, 2011 8:48 am

adaseb wrote:
cfabian wrote:Here's a loser from today.
I had other 2 as well.

Some days I feel this is simple, I can see setups and stuff on the charts and images, but realtime has been ugly.

Probably I will switch to exclusively look for trades on H1- H4, wait or momo on those timeframes, retrace, and entry with smaller TF.

Geeeez, 3 yrs on this and still struggling like hell.

Image


in the future don't enter a reversal trade on a strong trend just because you get some momo on the m15 chart. despite there being a h4,d1,w1 mightyzone in that area.

let price attempt to make a high/low and fail and then look to enter on a momo bar.


also in my opinion your -20 stop is too large for this type of trading.

typically when you enter, price should put you into profit, usually it goes back to your entry and tries to trick you and scare you out of your trade. observe and if you notice a strong move against you, get out and enter at a better price.

sometimes you get out and the trade works anyways, nothing you can do about that, don't go chasing it.


good luck.


This all depends on the individual but how I SEE it is that initial momento and zones need to be from the large charts. A s/r, zline/whatever trade is always going to look like it is trending on the small timeframes in the 'wrong' direction when it hits these areas but the thing to take note of is on the medium term charts is whether it has had to trend to get there, the longer it takes, the riskier the play.

For your entry, using the standard timeframes the one thing I notice is that the hourly is still going up. I would wait to see a red hourly then see if there is a 15 minute momo within that hourly for a zline. I know sometimes this doesn't happen (15 minute LEADS hourly right) and you'll miss the entry but by waiting for that red hourly in the area you know price has stalled enough to consider a direction change.

For the entry, whether 20 pips is too large or not depends on current volatility on the entry timeframe. A rat/bar confirmation entry is always going to give you a larger stop too unless it is of the nature: wait for rat on (say) 15 or wait for momo on 15 then (with the rat) take a pull back on 1/3 minute timeframe or on the 15 minute momo/lzline entry just put a limit order out there at a zline and see if you catch a fish.

The non bar confirmation, limit entry will always enable you (taking average range into account) to use a smaller stop, approx one average range less, you then have 1 bar to make a decision - price will either go in your direction immediately (the zline wick) or it will close against you. If it closes against you can either get our for a couple of pips loss immediately or wait for the next bar. If the next bar closes against act accordingly - if the bar was less than average range, maybe wait. If it's a large(ish) bar with no tail maybe exit for a loss (assuming stop hasn't been hit).

But in all of this the stop is always going to be smaller than with a bar confirmation entry. Assuming you're right on direction it can take more than one attempt to catch a fish - zlines aren't perfect, within any bar there are often 3 zlines and if price is going to turn, which one is it going to turn on??

On the short timeframe momo sometimes LIES about which zline it will be.

The solution? Who can be 100% sure on this but for me, firstly look at position sizing. Reduce it to 0.5% if you're not scalping (i.e. trading in the bigger picture but with small scalp entries). That CAD trade yesterday my risk was too small, I'd made a mistake (0.3%) on a 10 pip stop, payoff 180 pips, r:r 18:1 so profit was only 3% (what about spread? spread becomes irrelevent).

If you can get 6 hour charts look at them, they are beautiful. 6 hour zlines, 15 momo, wait. Even if your exit is just a trend following one (trail a stop under each 6 hour bar (as long as it isn't a zline), SEE the pips available for the entry risk. Patience is all imo. It does not happen every day, of course!! but just doing this I've had 300 pip win off 15 pip risk entry, more than once. Sure it's not exciting and you don't get to place trades every day, and it means holding overnight. Sometimes less trades you place the more money you win.

So at 0.5% to 1% risk at entry, even if you enter three times and get stopped out on the first two you will still be massively in profit, with TINY risk. Once you get really confident then maybe up the risk to 2%. The 5% risk on entry stuff is a surefire way to mental problems and eventually the poorhouse.

All this is just how I operate and see things. I know the scalpers will think very differently.

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es/pip
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Postby es/pip » Wed Mar 16, 2011 11:33 am

cut the rest of that ej + a few

will try to post some charts today
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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Postby es/pip » Wed Mar 16, 2011 11:35 am

pretty much just been scalping yesterday and today

but looking to sell this h1 momo on gu down to .6026 ( h1 shoulder)
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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newscalper
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Postby newscalper » Wed Mar 16, 2011 11:44 am

Well today I have missed every entry I had on my charts. GU short, USDCHF short, Aussie short (although that one came nowhere near my line), GBPCHF short (same deal). :lol:

I await direction on euro, which will be short :shock:

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Postby es/pip » Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:26 pm

never took it short---- but never took it long either lol
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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