Never Lose Again

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BambinoFlex
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Mon May 10, 2021 1:59 am

LeMercenaire wrote:
BambinoFlex wrote:
xplsive wrote:Can anyone here give me a clean objective definition of what a zline is, how its drawn and how its traded. If possible in not too hard of a trader slang language. I am a newbie. Looking at all these charts posted seems like everyone´s definition is a bit different. I am also not sure who is the original source of inventing "zline".

Thank for your help.


I had written an extensive explanation. Only to have the site as me to log in again, erasing my explanation. Here's the shorten version:

Z-Line, in my understanding, is the simple breaking of Highs and Lows of the market. In other familiar terms, it's also similar to "stop hunting" and pull back trading back into the Asian range (usually).

Another thing MO stated "Buy where you see buying, sell where you see selling" it doesn't help much but look at a chart, and you'll see how on a Green day, the previous low is attacked, activating short breakout trades, only to have price revert and close Green.

With the Asia session, price will create a range. Usually, in london or a few hours before, that Asia session low or high will be attacked, creating the same effect mentioned previously. ICT calls it "institutional trading." After the attack, or the breaking of a low/high, price reverts, past the other side of the range, and continues, sometimes, coming back to the same range, taking out all the "B/E" traders (zeroed out).

In theory, it works, practice is much harder. Where do you place stop loss, where do you take profit, how do you know what low/high is being attacked???

I think Z-Line, to be traded efficiently, you need to look at ranges well past the asia range. Trading with daily bias, so if price is above open, only buys, and vice versa for sells. Trading the asia range would be difficult, but once price has traveled a good amount, then the odds would increase.

Yen and CHF pairs have good stats on that. Usually once price has travelled 20+ pips in one direction, it's most likely to continue in that direction and close (giving you 30 pips if the range is usually 50). Whereas GBP pairs would travel farther and still have a high chance of closing opposite


That's a nice observation re the Yen and Swissie.



Thanks Lem! Attached you'll see my template where you can see that data.

I attached NJ to show as an example.

1. NJ High from open is 22 pips.
2. NJ Low from open is 9 pips.

Once that is established I look at the Frequency Distribution. This is where it gets confusing, but saying it out loud helps me.

1. Since NJ Low to open is 9 pips, then we have about a 45% probability the day will close Green.
2. Since NJ Open to High is 22 pips, we have less than 26% probability that price will reverse and close Red.

Trading these stats simple requires larger stop losses but the real gold is simply understanding how price tends to move on every pair.

If you shuffle through the pairs, you'll see that GBP pairs can go 30+ pips away from open, and still reverse and close the opposite way.

This information confirms Peter Crowns statement in Forex Factory about "If you want to stop the bleeding, never buy on a down day, and never sell on an up day" (paraphrased). I don't use this to open trades, but to become familiar with every pair and how they "tend" to move.
Attachments
NJExample.JPG
NJExample.JPG (181.68 KiB) Viewed 2603 times
1DayPriceMovement.tpl
(85.2 KiB) Downloaded 108 times
Last edited by BambinoFlex on Mon May 10, 2021 3:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
Trading the TRO way

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TheRumpledOne
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon May 10, 2021 2:46 am

BambinoFlex wrote:
1. Since NJ Low to open is 9 pips, then we have about a 45% probability the day will close Green.
2. Since NJ Open to High is 22 pips, we have less than 26% probability that price will reverse and close Red.


THERE IS NO PROBABILITY.

Those are statistics.

Probability is about the future.

Statistics are about the past.

DO NOT CONFUSE STATISTICS FOR PROBABILITY!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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BambinoFlex
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Mon May 10, 2021 3:10 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:
BambinoFlex wrote:
1. Since NJ Low to open is 9 pips, then we have about a 45% probability the day will close Green.
2. Since NJ Open to High is 22 pips, we have less than 26% probability that price will reverse and close Red.


THERE IS NO PROBABILITY.

Those are statistics.

Probability is about the future.

Statistics are about the past.

DO NOT CONFUSE STATISTICS FOR PROBABILITY!!



I always thought probability was in regards to the future, but in language, would it be "there's a 45% statistical probability to close green" or "45% statistical chance it will close green"

or how would you word it?
Trading the TRO way

"If you're wrong, guess what...thats TRADING"

“Taking 15 pips and resizing your trade is vastly more profitable than holding for 100, 1000, or even 10,000 pips.” - MO

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TheRumpledOne
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon May 10, 2021 7:37 pm

BambinoFlex wrote:

I always thought probability was in regards to the future, but in language, would it be "there's a 45% statistical probability to close green" or "45% statistical chance it will close green"

or how would you word it?



Over the last N Bars, the price closed green 45% of the time.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat May 22, 2021 2:23 pm

TRO_001.png
TRO_001.png (43.37 KiB) Viewed 2285 times


TRO_002.png
TRO_002.png (51.66 KiB) Viewed 2285 times


DO YOU SEE AN EDGE?

WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU TO DO?

HOW WOULD YOU TRADE THIS?

WHEN TO ENTER? EXIT?

IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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BambinoFlex
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Sat May 22, 2021 5:48 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:TRO_001.png

TRO_002.png

DO YOU SEE AN EDGE?

WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU TO DO?

HOW WOULD YOU TRADE THIS?

WHEN TO ENTER? EXIT?





Stop Loss at previous High or Low, Entry at daily open, or cross of daily open (since price will most likely create a wick on both sides of the bar indicated a low/high, cross of the open, then high/low and close.) TP would be close of day?? Not 100% but that's what I'm seeing
Trading the TRO way

"If you're wrong, guess what...thats TRADING"

“Taking 15 pips and resizing your trade is vastly more profitable than holding for 100, 1000, or even 10,000 pips.” - MO

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