Never Lose Again

[TheRumpledOne]

I always thought probability was in regards to the future, but in language, would it be "there's a 45% statistical probability to close green" or "45% statistical chance it will close green"

or how would you word it?

Over the last N Bars, the price closed green 45% of the time.

[TheRumpledOne]

TRO_001.png (43.37 KiB) Viewed 6952 times

TRO_002.png (51.66 KiB) Viewed 6952 times

DO YOU SEE AN EDGE?

WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU TO DO?

HOW WOULD YOU TRADE THIS?

WHEN TO ENTER? EXIT?

[BambinoFlex]

TRO_001.png

TRO_002.png

DO YOU SEE AN EDGE?

WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU TO DO?

HOW WOULD YOU TRADE THIS?

WHEN TO ENTER? EXIT?

Stop Loss at previous High or Low, Entry at daily open, or cross of daily open (since price will most likely create a wick on both sides of the bar indicated a low/high, cross of the open, then high/low and close.) TP would be close of day?? Not 100% but that's what I'm seeing

[BambinoFlex]

TRO_001.png

TRO_002.png

DO YOU SEE AN EDGE?

WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU TO DO?

HOW WOULD YOU TRADE THIS?

WHEN TO ENTER? EXIT?

Going back to this. I still can't wrap my head around the data. With the first picture. In the past 100 days, price opened higher than prev. low and lower than prev. high. - This itself would mean that there is an opportunity to trade off the High/Low before the new day begins. Not taking into account other variables.

Second part, if today's High is Higher than Prev. High, 33 days out of 57 was the close higher than previous high. This would be to trade at the break of previous high and take your 5 pips. Stop loss can be anything really. Ideally treat it as a 1:1 and put stop loss at 5 pips and target 5 pips. Or us the minute chart and place at previous swing low only if 1:1 or better.

This is what I see, but my view is limited since there are other variables at play. What if price activates and retraces below previous high? Do you re-enter?

[BambinoFlex]

So I've chosen my poison, I was struggling with trading the daily range vs the weekly range. Took some time off to get my head cleared out and I've decided to trade the weekly range. My arsenal has also gotten slightly bigger and I want to share my new findings. All dealing with pivots of course. Also, I've started to understand some MO stuff, all through the lens of pivots and hopefully I can explain my ideas correctly. Maybe it can help someone out.

[TheRumpledOne]

This is what I see, but my view is limited since there are other variables at play. What if price activates and retraces below previous high? Do you re-enter?

Why wouldn't you re-enter?

Why would you re-enter?

[BambinoFlex]

I mainly use pivots for RANGE purposes. My targets are.

1. Pivot Point (Pivot Fade)
2. S1 OR R1

Here's a picture. I should cut the price analyzer out but the main focus is that from the open, price will travel up or down, but certain levels are more likely to be crossed than others. For example. If I open 1 trade a day, and my goal is to be flat at the end of day, I will NOT place my targets at R3 or S3. Those lines do not get crossed as often. I have opted for the S1 or R1, depending on my bias.

The reason I treat pivots to help me know what's "likely" and what's "less likely" is because pivots are DYNAMIC. They are dependent on the previous day/hour/15minute (whatever pivot tf you're using). This is important because no matter market conditions, the pivots will reflect current market conditions.

Using the likely vs less likely idea, I've come to understand MO's explanation of how he views ranges. He did actual candle range studies, but I have gravitated toward pivots as my range study.

Quick note, the example is for day pivots, but you can use 4hr pivots, 1hr pivots, weekly pivots, etc... I focus on Weekly, Daily and the 4hr pivots.

[BambinoFlex]

This is what I see, but my view is limited since there are other variables at play. What if price activates and retraces below previous high? Do you re-enter?

Why wouldn't you re-enter?

Why would you re-enter?

I wouldn't re enter at the break of the high because the losses might add up for the day. Meaning that price would kiss/cross the prev high only to return back into the wick zone either hitting a stop loss, or never returning back to break past that high for the day.

I would re enter because I want to make sure I make the most of "edge" and after 100 days, come out with a profit.

The unknown variable is: How many times in the last 57 days has price reverted back into the wick zone BEFORE closing greater than the previous high. I've seen it happen back when I was trading the wick zone with the previous high as the entry line. I just can't say how often.

[TheRumpledOne]

The analyzer can test for open below pivot and high above pivot, too. HINT!

[BambinoFlex]

The analyzer can test for open below pivot and high above pivot, too. HINT!

Ah! Yes, adding the Open above/below pivot then filtering breaks of previous high/low, give a similar, yet different story. The story is, price is more likely to make a new high greater than prev high if open is above pivot and a new low less than previous low if open is below pivot.

30 days out of the 44 with an open above pivot break previous high.

37 days out of the 56 with an open below pivot break previous low.

Closing filter added as well.