Never Lose Again

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11397
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Apr 29, 2009 12:17 am

rowdy wrote:TRO,
I have been following the James16 thread on FF. It is extremely long so I am just getting started. Are you a member of the PF? What are your thoughts on James16? He seems to be a good guy and I was considering joining the PF. What is your opinion of him and/or his methods?


Not a member of the PF.

I don't have any opinion about James16. He does his thing, and I do mine.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11397
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Apr 29, 2009 7:14 pm

Image
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Toronto Trading Group

Postby razorboy » Thu Apr 30, 2009 1:54 pm

I just posted an ad on CL looking to start a small trading group in Toronto. If by chance any of you know anyone one up here, let me know

http://toronto.en.craigslist.ca/tor/act/1147324412.html





PS - That last high "1" was the key :)

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11397
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Apr 30, 2009 6:00 pm

Q: Well, maybe you need to tweak your style. Have you ever thought about altering your trading style by (names a variety of "tweaks")?
A: Nope, and never will.

Q: Why not?
A: As I've said, focus is the only thing that will ever keep me from making money. I have no interest, desire, plan to change how I trade ... ever ... and I turn a deaf ear to anyone who suggests I tweak my approach. Frankly, it gets mentally filtered out the moment I see or hear the suggestion. Let's never forget Seve Ballesteros. It's all and only about focus and execution. Always has been and always will. Said another way, why buy another lock when you know the combination???

http://donmillerjournal.blogspot.com/20 ... ction.html
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
eudamonia
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 536
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:50 pm
Reputation: 0
Location: Rocklin, CA
Real name: Edward Heming
Gender: Male
Contact:

Postby eudamonia » Thu Apr 30, 2009 8:12 pm

Avery,

Don't you just love Don's blog? His videos are like a window view of the disciplined trader.

Edward
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11397
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Apr 30, 2009 10:06 pm

Hey Ed:

Thanks for sharing that. Don has some good info.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5247
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

Postby MightyOne » Fri May 01, 2009 3:44 am

Those numbers are just every day gains :lol:

TheRumpledOne wrote:Check THIS out.

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5247
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

Re: A Support And Res Question for MO

Postby MightyOne » Fri May 01, 2009 5:04 am

"...I was expecting..." -Razorboy

The only thing you use analysis for is entering so that more often than not you are in profit by at least 1/3 of your risk almost immediately.

I take profit quickly to reduce or eliminate risk and then hold for large gains based on the time frame that I am considering:

If I am up 9 pips and I exit 1/3 of my position then price must fall 13.4 pips for me to break even (9 / 0.67).

Lets look at the same 9 pip gain and different exit amounts:

1/4: 12 pips to BE
1/2: 18 pips to BE
3/5: 22.5 pips to BE
2/3: 27.2 pips to BE
3/4: 36 pips to BE
4/5: 45 pips to BE

If 9 pips = 1% then the distance to BE now = 1%:

If you exit 1/4 of your position then every 12 pips is a 1% gain.
If you exit 3/4 of your position then every 36 pips is a 1% gain.
(Zero risk and unlimited potential gain if you are one to not count chickens before they hatch)

If my initial risk is 9 pips and 70% of the time my risk is moved to zero then my average risk is 2.7 pips per trade.
If 9 pips is 1% then 2.7 pips is 0.3% risk.
If I make 5% on my remaining position then my ratio is 16.6 to 1.


Now if my risk is zero AND my SL is LARGER (not in profit, not at the point of my entry, but LARGER than my initial SL) then the probability of a longer term gain is increased dramatically.

------------------------------------------

Price moved up 9 pips, but it has to reverse a greater number of pips to zero me out at which time I am ready to try again.

If the market is offering you 5 or more pips then reduce your position and expand your SL.
(Imagine if price spiked 18 or 23 pips!)

You can exit the majority of your position and move you attn. to other pairs or you can exit a small amount and focus on a single pair.

The majority of your success will come from: low initial risk, taking profits quickly, & taking profits slowly.

Master all 3 and nothing will be able to stop you from being successful.


razorboy wrote:MO,

Was playing the ej today - the day after a what i thought - major support line was broken.

As per my pictures, I was expecting a new res line to be formed at the 126.20 region - yellow line

Things didnt pan out that way and price kept rising - almost exactly to the point of zeroing out the first "big move down"

looking back at the charts, i suspect my problem was that i didnt let the market define it at the 126.20 region ( should have waited for a lower low before I shorted)

Anyway, I suspect I am probably answering my own question here (or this could just be total gibberish), but when using the idea of Zeroing out other large moves, do you find that longer term S/R lines usually form at the origin of a big move (rather than an old support line automatically turning into a res line), or do you just wait for the market to define itself over a certain range that could be considered support ---------------ok i obviously just answered my own question, but have put all this time in so I will just throw up some pics

Image
Image
Image

User avatar
prochargedmopar
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5544
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 6:07 am
Reputation: 8
Location: Granbury, TX
Gender: Male
Contact:

Postby prochargedmopar » Fri May 01, 2009 6:40 am

MightyOne wrote:Those numbers are just every day gains :lol:

TheRumpledOne wrote:Check THIS out.


That's what I was thinking.
I better kick it in.
WEAK.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Re: A Support And Res Question for MO

Postby razorboy » Fri May 01, 2009 11:04 am

The less i expect - the better I do...........the better i do, the more all of your stuff makes sense - well except for the risk management stuff, which is just basic math.....

What you saw there was my thinking when I expected something to happen...........silly isnt it.

Now that I think i have a semi-ok-not-a-total-fool-handle-on-price-action-as-I-am-up-200-or-so-pips-for-the-week-and-see-the-interaction-between-different-time-periods, I can start focusing more on position management.

Are you scaling in and out of your positions over and over again? (like start with three units, take two off as price pops, keep one on that falls against you for a bit, then build on it again when price turns)

MightyOne wrote:"...I was expecting..." -Razorboy

The only thing you use analysis for is entering so that more often than not you are in profit by at least 1/3 of your risk almost immediately.

I take profit quickly to reduce or eliminate risk and then hold for large gains based on the time frame that I am considering:

If I am up 9 pips and I exit 1/3 of my position then price must fall 13.4 pips for me to break even (9 / 0.67).

Lets look at the same 9 pip gain and different exit amounts:

1/4: 12 pips to BE
1/2: 18 pips to BE
3/5: 22.5 pips to BE
2/3: 27.2 pips to BE
3/4: 36 pips to BE
4/5: 45 pips to BE

If 9 pips = 1% then the distance to BE now = 1%:

If you exit 1/4 of your position then every 12 pips is a 1% gain.
If you exit 3/4 of your position then every 36 pips is a 1% gain.
(Zero risk and unlimited potential gain if you are one to not count chickens before they hatch)

If my initial risk is 9 pips and 70% of the time my risk is moved to zero then my average risk is 2.7 pips per trade.
If 9 pips is 1% then 2.7 pips is 0.3% risk.
If I make 5% on my remaining position then my ratio is 16.6 to 1.


Now if my risk is zero AND my SL is LARGER (not in profit, not at the point of my entry, but LARGER than my initial SL) then the probability of a longer term gain is increased dramatically.

------------------------------------------

Price moved up 9 pips, but it has to reverse a greater number of pips to zero me out at which time I am ready to try again.

If the market is offering you 5 or more pips then reduce your position and expand your SL.
(Imagine if price spiked 18 or 23 pips!)

You can exit the majority of your position and move you attn. to other pairs or you can exit a small amount and focus on a single pair.

The majority of your success will come from: low initial risk, taking profits quickly, & taking profits slowly.

Master all 3 and nothing will be able to stop you from being successful.


razorboy wrote:MO,

Was playing the ej today - the day after a what i thought - major support line was broken.

As per my pictures, I was expecting a new res line to be formed at the 126.20 region - yellow line

Things didnt pan out that way and price kept rising - almost exactly to the point of zeroing out the first "big move down"

looking back at the charts, i suspect my problem was that i didnt let the market define it at the 126.20 region ( should have waited for a lower low before I shorted)

Anyway, I suspect I am probably answering my own question here (or this could just be total gibberish), but when using the idea of Zeroing out other large moves, do you find that longer term S/R lines usually form at the origin of a big move (rather than an old support line automatically turning into a res line), or do you just wait for the market to define itself over a certain range that could be considered support ---------------ok i obviously just answered my own question, but have put all this time in so I will just throw up some pics

Image
Image
Image
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “TheRumpledOne”