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inzider
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Postby inzider » Thu Apr 23, 2009 1:57 am

Hi Mo!

I was thinking about three bars patterns, last high/low of body close.
Most of the time, when we get an inside bar, the low of the previous bar is acting as a resistance...

My question is: do you trade from those insight, do you use those to judge abour price action? - close / open position...

Let me your view about that plz.

Take care!
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Apr 23, 2009 3:07 am

Razorboy asks:

"should I gradually increase my SL as price surges upward ( by the amount of each surge - which would be my theoretical profit if i closed the position)- would have the same effect of selling, and buying back in with a large SL. Correct?"

This is not the case...

If you exit when price is 25 pips away from your stop loss and re enter after price moves up another 8 pips then you are till 25 pips away from the SL.
If you exit when price is 25 pips away from your stop loss and price moves lower by 20 pips and you re enter then you are still 25 pips away from your stop loss with a stop that is 20 pips lower than your initial SL.

If you expand your SL as price rises and do not exit then you must also contract your SL as price falls because that profit which you were using to expand your SL no longer exists.

Another option available to you is if you are in profit and exit to buy back lower then you can buy back lower using your initial SL.
The difference between your exit and your re entry reduces your risk proportionately and also adds that difference to your longer term profit potential.

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Apr 23, 2009 3:19 am

inzider wrote:Hi Mo!

I was thinking about three bars patterns, last high/low of body close.
Most of the time, when we get an inside bar, the low of the previous bar is acting as a resistance...

My question is: do you trade from those insight, do you use those to judge abour price action? - close / open position...

Let me your view about that plz.

Take care!


Analysis is only used to get the kite off the ground after which our trades are in the hands of forces beyond our ability to predict.

Either the kite comes crashing into the ground or is carried so high that we begin to run out of string.

Be comforted that as long as your kite is not destroyed by a collision into the Earth that you can simply work to get it in the air
again.

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Postby pierre23 » Thu Apr 23, 2009 3:30 am

MightyOne wrote:
inzider wrote:Hi Mo!

I was thinking about three bars patterns, last high/low of body close.
Most of the time, when we get an inside bar, the low of the previous bar is acting as a resistance...

My question is: do you trade from those insight, do you use those to judge abour price action? - close / open position...

Let me your view about that plz.

Take care!


Analysis is only used to get the kite off the ground after which our trades are in the hands of forces beyond our ability to predict.

Either the kite comes crashing into the ground or is carried so high that we begin to run out of string.

Be comforted that as long as your kite is not destroyed by a collision into the Earth that you can simply work to get it in the air
again.

lol nice analogy

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Re: Dynamic Trend Bias aka Almost Ran out of String.........

Postby razorboy » Thu Apr 23, 2009 10:24 am

Woke up this morning........up 108 pips or so - closed the trade (didn't hit target yet, but did so out of actual surprise) - i loosened up my sl last night in the price failure zone around the 127-126.80 area

in at 27.38 out at 28.46

MO, since I was playing this off of a daily chart, would you recommend using a sl equal to 2.5 times the daily range (like you were suggesting for scalping) or am i just asking for trouble. in the long run. or is this exactly what you mean about only needing to be right 10% of the time if you am to capture this sort of move on a regular basis - (in other words - let it run longer and don't bail)


Image



razorboy wrote:I was running thru MO's post and wanted to give this another shot.

As my basic set up I used a breakout from three days back to set up the dynamic trend - the pink lines are the addition of the ranges two candles previous to the downward break out bar -

Based on what I saw on the daily chart - price is above the lines - the bias is up/long - ATR for this pair is about 273

Image

4 hour shot

Image

1 hour

Image

15 minute

Image


I have 1% of capital at risk

I went long at 127.38 off of the 15 minute chart, but figured if I was looking to capture the ATR or so, the specific entry wasnt too much of an issue - SL is the at the upper most of the lower two pink lines - about 40 pips

The top pink line is the break out line - an initial target to aim for.

any input would be appreciated - was up about 30 pips, now sitting at 10 pips of profit.

Now I know MO had talked about adding profits to your SL, to increase your staying power, but if I don't plan to sell until I hit my profit target, should I gradually increase my SL as price surges upward ( by the amount of each surge - which would be my theoretical profit if i closed the position)- would have the same effect of selling, and buying back in with a large SL. Correct?

Would love some input

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Finding Failure..............

Postby razorboy » Thu Apr 23, 2009 11:30 am

MO,

not sure if this is just a coincidence or exactly what you are actually getting at with the Dynamic trend concept, but the daily dynamic trend lines i calculated and used for the EJ trade seemed to pick out the price failure area pretty accurately on the H1 chart


Image

Another D'Oh moment for me i think....................





MightyOne wrote:Next we have the No Trade or Price Failure area.

If price fails to close in the direction of profit beyond a momentum bar then you are likely looking at a possible reversal in the near future.

Again the "i bar" is the bar that you are trading in the direction of profit and after that bar closes you can consider the possibility of a price reversal.

Image

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inzider
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Postby inzider » Thu Apr 23, 2009 1:05 pm

MightyOne wrote:
inzider wrote:Hi Mo!

I was thinking about three bars patterns, last high/low of body close.
Most of the time, when we get an inside bar, the low of the previous bar is acting as a resistance...

My question is: do you trade from those insight, do you use those to judge abour price action? - close / open position...

Let me your view about that plz.

Take care!


Analysis is only used to get the kite off the ground after which our trades are in the hands of forces beyond our ability to predict.

Either the kite comes crashing into the ground or is carried so high that we begin to run out of string.

Be comforted that as long as your kite is not destroyed by a collision into the Earth that you can simply work to get it in the air
again.


Fly kite fly!!!!

Thx for your answer and that funny metaphore!
Have a good one!
WB: "Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing."

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Re: Dynamic Trend Bias aka Almost Ran out of String.........

Postby MightyOne » Thu Apr 23, 2009 3:11 pm

Razorboy asks:

"MO, since I was playing this off of a daily chart, would you recommend using a sl equal to 2.5 times the daily range (like you were suggesting for scalping) or am i just asking for trouble. in the long run. or is this exactly what you mean about only needing to be right 10% of the time if you aim to capture this sort of move on a regular basis - (in other words - let it run longer and don't bail)"

If you only intend to scalp small gains, relative to the size of your SL, then it is to your benefit to use a larger SL.

If you intend on trading for larger moves and are not scalping then you are greatly benefited by smaller stops that give you greater multiples of risk
in profit.

I'll use Dynamic Fibs S&R as an example:

If I were targeting the larger move then I might use the 10 pip trigger with a 15 pip SL where 10p = 1% (the extra 5p to make sure
that the SL is at or beyond the extreme).

If I were scalping then I might use a 20 pip trigger with a 25 pip stop loss where 20p = 1%

Going even further up the time frames to scalping a daily/weekly chart I might use a 40 pip trigger with a 45 pip SL where 40p = 1%

:evil: "THAT'S NOT SCALPING!":

Like every thing else I say it doesn't make a lick of sense until you sleep on it.

If you use 10p as 1% then you should consider a 20 pip gain as a 20 pip gain.
If you use 20p as 1% then you should consider a 20 pip gain as a 10 pip gain.
If you use 40p as 1% then you should consider a 20 pip gain as a 5 pip gain.

I hope this answers your question Razorboy.

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Re: Dynamic Trend Bias aka Almost Ran out of String.........

Postby razorboy » Thu Apr 23, 2009 3:40 pm

I think so.........

on that last trade, in retropect, I should have had buy limit orders the dynamic

As I have been reading over your posting about the dynamic trend line, I read one post where you said to PRO that you draw the DT lines on an active breakout candle - I still cant get my mind around that - if a candle is active, it always has the possiblity of going higher or low - not sure what information I get from that. I can see getting some information after the break out has closed though.........

Using the idea of smaller stops, to capture the ATR - or a good chunk of it, I assume you are looking to get in at a price failure zone? I like the idea of picking up a 100 pip move off of a 10 or 15 sl, but isnt this like trying to pick tops and bottoms. - i do see the math behind it though

MightyOne wrote:Razorboy asks:

"MO, since I was playing this off of a daily chart, would you recommend using a sl equal to 2.5 times the daily range (like you were suggesting for scalping) or am i just asking for trouble. in the long run. or is this exactly what you mean about only needing to be right 10% of the time if you aim to capture this sort of move on a regular basis - (in other words - let it run longer and don't bail)"

If you only intend to scalp small gains, relative to the size of your SL, then it is to your benefit to use a larger SL.

If you intend on trading for larger moves and are not scalping then you are greatly benefited by smaller stops that give you greater multiples of risk
in profit.

I'll use Dynamic Fibs S&R as an example:

If I were targeting the larger move then I might use the 10 pip trigger with a 15 pip SL where 10p = 1% (the extra 5p to make sure
that the SL is at or beyond the extreme).

If I were scalping then I might use a 20 pip trigger with a 25 pip stop loss where 20p = 1%

Going even further up the time frames to scalping a daily/weekly chart I might use a 40 pip trigger with a 45 pip SL where 40p = 1%

:evil: "THAT'S NOT SCALPING!":

Like every thing else I say it doesn't make a lick of sense until you sleep on it.

If you use 10p as 1% then you should consider a 20 pip gain as a 20 pip gain.
If you use 20p as 1% then you should consider a 20 pip gain as a 10 pip gain.
If you use 40p as 1% then you should consider a 20 pip gain as a 5 pip gain.

I hope this answers your question Razorboy.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Apr 23, 2009 3:41 pm

Found this here:

http://traderplanet.com/forums/chatter/ ... ml#post287


04-15-2009, 06:06 PM


Uturn

1. The big money is never made buying or selling, but in the waiting.
2. Patience will achieve more than force.
3. Find setups and entries which minimise exposure.
The profits come on their own terms.
4. Lose your opinion not your money.
5. Listen to the market.
6. Concentrate on the right hand side of the chart.
7. All you need is one pattern to make a living.

Motivational:
~ I am a successful trader
~ Each day's performance is fresh
~ I identify and execute successful trades
~ I trade effortlessly and automatically
~ I Trade with confidence
~ I achieve excellent trading results
~ I am successful without being perfect
~ I am personally responsible for my trading
~ One bad trade is just that
~ My performance as a trader does not reflect my self worth
~ Trading is an ever evolving skill
~ Believing in myself and proven methodologies,
I approach each day fresh and alert to the opportunities presented.


Cheers, Uturn
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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