Never Lose Again

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5251
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

Postby MightyOne » Sat Jan 17, 2009 6:17 am

In this pic the observation is the open price of a gap move and price later bouncing off this line later (shown as thumbs up) for whatever reason.
I then show you an example of how I would ask for a lower price.
I might start with a price level on the 5's and then when I can't get that price I'll go 5 pips higher.
If I think there is I good chance that price is just goint to take off then I'll move up 10 pips at a time instead of 5.

Please don't ask,"but how do you know," because it is totally by feel...I know nothing aside from price did not close against me :shock:

Image

PS: If you want to get technical you could say that 3240 closed against me...and it did.
But since the candle was less than average and the next candle was bullish I made an exception...how convenient i know :roll:

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5251
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

Postby MightyOne » Sat Jan 17, 2009 6:43 am

Image

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Jan 17, 2009 12:29 pm

And what I am try to do is figure out how and why you feel what you feel.........and I think I have. I think this also explains why sometimes people say that if they had done the exact opposite of whatever their indicators (price, leading, lagging, etc), they would have kicked ass

On any chart, you can draw and upwards obvious trend line and an obvious downward trendline (I know the issues about trend lines some people have, this isnt the point of the argument) and at some point they meet - an equilibrium point - price either goes up or down from there (it may consolidate for a bit, but again, not the point of the argument)

The goal is trying to figure out who controls the market, below the equilibrium point - regardless if price is rising or falling, the buyers are controlling price - they drive it up or down. If price falls after the intersection of two trendlines, it is because buyers are offering less - demand is falling. if price rises after the intersection of two lines, it is because the sellers are reducing supply - driving price up - controlling the market

What I noticed is that when prices were below the equilibrium point of two trendlines - the way interpreted price relative to resistance and support was correct - when price was demand driven. When price was above it - supplier driven - price would often do exactly the opposite of what I thought it would do - because the market was being driven by sellers. For example, demand would raise price to a certain point, but then the sellers would take over control of the rising prices - and make them go up more.

I'll post a pic later to clarify


MightyOne wrote:In this pic the observation is the open price of a gap move and price later bouncing off this line later (shown as thumbs up) for whatever reason.
I then show you an example of how I would ask for a lower price.
I might start with a price level on the 5's and then when I can't get that price I'll go 5 pips higher.
If I think there is I good chance that price is just goint to take off then I'll move up 10 pips at a time instead of 5.

Please don't ask,"but how do you know," because it is totally by feel...I know nothing aside from price did not close against me :shock:

Image

PS: If you want to get technical you could say that 3240 closed against me...and it did.
But since the candle was less than average and the next candle was bullish I made an exception...how convenient i know :roll:

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11440
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Jan 17, 2009 4:06 pm

Image

KEEP IT SIMPLE... BACK TO BASICS.

Look at the open lines for the 4 market sessions.

Look at what happens to price when price crosses those HORIZONTAL LINES.

Buyers/Sellers.

Supply/Demand.

Up/Down.

There is NOTHING to figure out.

Price goes one way or the other.

Which way is it going?

LOOK AND SEE!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Jan 17, 2009 4:45 pm

Tro,

Quite frankly, i disagree with you. You (not you specifically) need to be able to figure it out, otherwise you are just mimicking. It isn't look and see, it is look, see and understand

Take a look at this chart - why did price pop - what drove it up - demand or supply? How were the forces acting?

Have you ever noticed that sometimes price will come down from say a 21 or 30 period high, consolidate a bit, establish a new 21 or 30 (or whatever period low), give some slight upward movement, maybe even hit the 11% retracement and then fall like a stone, when you may have been expecting a long

My sense is that when price is below the equilibrium point of any two strong trend lines (relative to the particular time frame) - it is demand that drives price. When price is above the equilibrium, it is supply that drives price.

When I use the dynamic fibs, they often generate a go short and go long sign at the exact right time but often the exact wrong time - like to go short in a surging market. Putting support and resistance together with trendlines really improves accuracy and may help someone understand why they were right or wrong



razorboy wrote:And what I am try to do is figure out how and why you feel what you feel.........and I think I have. I think this also explains why sometimes people say that if they had done the exact opposite of whatever their indicators (price, leading, lagging, etc), they would have kicked ass

On any chart, you can draw and upwards obvious trend line and an obvious downward trendline (I know the issues about trend lines some people have, this isnt the point of the argument) and at some point they meet - an equilibrium point - price either goes up or down from there (it may consolidate for a bit, but again, not the point of the argument)

The goal is trying to figure out who controls the market, below the equilibrium point - regardless if price is rising or falling, the buyers are controlling price - they drive it up or down. If price falls after the intersection of two trendlines, it is because buyers are offering less - demand is falling. if price rises after the intersection of two lines, it is because the sellers are reducing supply - driving price up - controlling the market

What I noticed is that when prices were below the equilibrium point of two trendlines - the way interpreted price relative to resistance and support was correct - when price was demand driven. When price was above it - supplier driven - price would often do exactly the opposite of what I thought it would do - because the market was being driven by sellers. For example, demand would raise price to a certain point, but then the sellers would take over control of the rising prices - and make them go up more.

I'll post a pic later to clarify


MightyOne wrote:In this pic the observation is the open price of a gap move and price later bouncing off this line later (shown as thumbs up) for whatever reason.
I then show you an example of how I would ask for a lower price.
I might start with a price level on the 5's and then when I can't get that price I'll go 5 pips higher.
If I think there is I good chance that price is just goint to take off then I'll move up 10 pips at a time instead of 5.

Please don't ask,"but how do you know," because it is totally by feel...I know nothing aside from price did not close against me :shock:

Image

PS: If you want to get technical you could say that 3240 closed against me...and it did.
But since the candle was less than average and the next candle was bullish I made an exception...how convenient i know :roll:
Attachments
demandandsupply.jpg
demandandsupply.jpg (129.73 KiB) Viewed 2264 times

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5251
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

Postby MightyOne » Sat Jan 17, 2009 7:37 pm

razorboy wrote:Tro,

Quite frankly, i disagree with you. You (not you specifically) need to be able to figure it out, otherwise you are just mimicking. It isn't look and see, it is look, see and understand

Take a look at this chart - why did price pop - what drove it up - demand or supply? How were the forces acting?

Have you ever noticed that sometimes price will come down from say a 21 or 30 period high, consolidate a bit, establish a new 21 or 30 (or whatever period low), give some slight upward movement, maybe even hit the 11% retracement and then fall like a stone, when you may have been expecting a long

My sense is that when price is below the equilibrium point of any two strong trend lines (relative to the particular time frame) - it is demand that drives price. When price is above the equilibrium, it is supply that drives price.

When I use the dynamic fibs, they often generate a go short and go long sign at the exact right time but often the exact wrong time - like to go short in a surging market. Putting support and resistance together with trendlines really improves accuracy and may help someone understand why they were right or wrong



razorboy wrote:And what I am try to do is figure out how and why you feel what you feel.........and I think I have. I think this also explains why sometimes people say that if they had done the exact opposite of whatever their indicators (price, leading, lagging, etc), they would have kicked ass

On any chart, you can draw and upwards obvious trend line and an obvious downward trendline (I know the issues about trend lines some people have, this isnt the point of the argument) and at some point they meet - an equilibrium point - price either goes up or down from there (it may consolidate for a bit, but again, not the point of the argument)

The goal is trying to figure out who controls the market, below the equilibrium point - regardless if price is rising or falling, the buyers are controlling price - they drive it up or down. If price falls after the intersection of two trendlines, it is because buyers are offering less - demand is falling. if price rises after the intersection of two lines, it is because the sellers are reducing supply - driving price up - controlling the market

What I noticed is that when prices were below the equilibrium point of two trendlines - the way interpreted price relative to resistance and support was correct - when price was demand driven. When price was above it - supplier driven - price would often do exactly the opposite of what I thought it would do - because the market was being driven by sellers. For example, demand would raise price to a certain point, but then the sellers would take over control of the rising prices - and make them go up more.

I'll post a pic later to clarify


MightyOne wrote:In this pic the observation is the open price of a gap move and price later bouncing off this line later (shown as thumbs up) for whatever reason.
I then show you an example of how I would ask for a lower price.
I might start with a price level on the 5's and then when I can't get that price I'll go 5 pips higher.
If I think there is I good chance that price is just goint to take off then I'll move up 10 pips at a time instead of 5.

Please don't ask,"but how do you know," because it is totally by feel...I know nothing aside from price did not close against me :shock:

Image

PS: If you want to get technical you could say that 3240 closed against me...and it did.
But since the candle was less than average and the next candle was bullish I made an exception...how convenient i know :roll:


The less you know the more money you make.

The only thing that matters is that price is continually closing in the direction you are looking to trade based on a point of reference.

Wicks reject areas and bodies explore them.

By looking at different time frame charts you can figure out how far into the forest traders are exploring before turning back to the reference line.

All I am saying is don't get overly technical because there are only two choices and one of them makes money :roll:

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5251
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

Postby MightyOne » Sat Jan 17, 2009 7:58 pm

Chart is 5m condensed with NO WICKS!

Bodies show the way...


Image

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Jan 17, 2009 8:10 pm

no, the more competent you are at trading (MO and TRO), the more money you make. - whether or not anyone can spit out their "rules" or "approach" to trading is more an issue of transfering and codifying wet knowledge to dry knowledge. What the two of you do has become natural and reflexive to you - I kinda like that in a professional, the same way I like my surgeon not to look at a text book during surgery - it has become elevated to an art form

And actually there are three choice - long, short and out.

90% of traders lose money, (that is the statistic that is thrown around.) - so its obviously not that easy - simple maybe, but not easy

Understanding the forces of supply and demand (how and when they act) is hardly technical. I'm not suggesting that one needs some advanced mathematical formula based on advanced calculus, algebra, sunspots and tidal currents - just an idea of why prices are moving where - and actually overlaps well with the ZL idea

I've entered trades many times using TRO's horizontal line approach and probably won just as mine times as I have lost. Why? Because I was entering at the wrong time - despite a perfect set up - I probably entered at what turned out to be the intersection of two strong trends - one up and one down - one of them snapped. The third dot rule often works because it make sure you enters with a trendline - TRO's approach works if your entrance coincides with a trendline going in the right direction - sometimes (which is quite often).

All I'm suggesting is that adding an understanding of basic supply and demand factors will help you picking the right entrance for a trade. Also for my own piece of mind, if I want to start putting down larger bets, I had better be able to figure out why a trade should work (and didnt work).

"Go long on a green H1 candle" (most of the time) now makes perfect sense to me and I can explain it to myself - as in when I should and should not do it. The same goes with how support becomes resistance.

I like to see and know

I'm just trying to improve my tape reading skills :)

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Jan 17, 2009 8:24 pm

PS..........how did anyone ever think the random walk theory was valid...............
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11440
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Jan 17, 2009 10:52 pm

There is NOTHING to understand.

Either you are in profit, in loss, or waiting to enter.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “TheRumpledOne”