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razorboy
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Postby razorboy » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:48 pm

I actually have a lot of interest in this as it is pretty relevant to the way i I enter trades. I basically go long and short off of 3 hour lows and highs - in the direction of the h1

Once in a while I get hit by a statistical fluke that takes me out of a "good" trade set up . Resizing should help
razorboy wrote:much thanks.



MightyOne wrote:"How do you figure that 90% the time wont stopped out of a trade - Does that range, all in one direction, occur less than 10% of the time? The amount you suggest for the EuroUSD is about 10 pips or so less than its hourly range? If you are going to keep your SL's that large so you increase your change of getting out of bad trades at minimal damage, aren't you just better off taking your losses fast with a tight SL to begin with?

waiting that sort of time for a trade to go your way would suggest that it was a bad entry. No?"


If you enter and a candle has not closed against you then there is a greater than 90% chance that THE NEXT CANDLE will not stop you out if you use a 2.5x stop size.
The stops are not large at all and they ensure consistent returns as apposed to highly leveraged plays.

The only thing that tells me that my entry was less than perfect is the CLOSE OF A CANDLE while I am sitting with a loss.

There is a very big difference between losing 4% a number of times and avoiding the full extent of such losses so that new profit can be continually compounded at the highest rate.

PS: If you feel that you can get away with using 1x then go for it. I am just saying that the multiple you use for one pair use for the others.

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Postby razorboy » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:57 pm

here is "fluke" that should have gone my way


razorboy wrote:I actually have a lot of interest in this as it is pretty relevant to the way i I enter trades. I basically go long and short off of 3 hour lows and highs - in the direction of the h1

Once in a while I get hit by a statistical fluke that takes me out of a "good" trade set up . Resizing should help
razorboy wrote:much thanks.



MightyOne wrote:"How do you figure that 90% the time wont stopped out of a trade - Does that range, all in one direction, occur less than 10% of the time? The amount you suggest for the EuroUSD is about 10 pips or so less than its hourly range? If you are going to keep your SL's that large so you increase your change of getting out of bad trades at minimal damage, aren't you just better off taking your losses fast with a tight SL to begin with?

waiting that sort of time for a trade to go your way would suggest that it was a bad entry. No?"


If you enter and a candle has not closed against you then there is a greater than 90% chance that THE NEXT CANDLE will not stop you out if you use a 2.5x stop size.
The stops are not large at all and they ensure consistent returns as apposed to highly leveraged plays.

The only thing that tells me that my entry was less than perfect is the CLOSE OF A CANDLE while I am sitting with a loss.

There is a very big difference between losing 4% a number of times and avoiding the full extent of such losses so that new profit can be continually compounded at the highest rate.

PS: If you feel that you can get away with using 1x then go for it. I am just saying that the multiple you use for one pair use for the others.
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Postby razorboy » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:59 pm

MO- I think I might love you - will let you know tomorrow for sure
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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Re: Good trade

Postby razorboy » Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:11 am

one more stupid question - when you say candle closing against you, which candle are you talking about - 5 min, 30 min, 60 min........etc

thanks

MightyOne wrote:
PeterD wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
PeterD wrote:I love your posts MightyOne, keep them coming, I learned a lot from you, as days went by, I think I am getting better and better at seeing your Zero Lines, they are everywhere at different timeframes.

So far I am still learning since this is my first forex trading experience, I have been able to double my account, and of course it's just a demo, not real money, I am sure it will be a different story when I trade with real money, I am sure I don't have so much guts...

So far, things I have learned:
- Get out as soon as you feel you are going the wrong direction, the less pips you loss the better.
- It's a matter of finding a good method of entry with the lowest risk and highest reward.

I don't know, it's sounds simple, but I think that's all there's to it?

I have been trying to trade with longer timeframe, less stress...

Attached is my last trade I just made with demo account, I got 80 pips.
I wish I would be able to do the same thing with my real account in the future!

Thanks again MightyOne and Avery, for making everything looks easy (trading without indicators).

Peter.


Your trade was so well done that it looks like it came from my own hands.

Just keep letting the chart talk to you and teach you how to trade.
Don't become attached to any one method of doing some thing.
Be flexible and always look for new information.


Never think about how much money is in your account;
it is just a number that lets you know when to increase your lot size and nothing more.


Hi MightyOne,

The trade that was done last night was definitely came from your ZL perspective, you opened my eyes, really,

When I look at charts, I would flip back and forth between timeframes, to see where the ZLs, as I would expect some support/resistance.
And I was always wondering if there are some crowd lurking in timeframes that I don't see? May be there are crowd that use 8-minute chart or 20-minute chart? (or whatever number that people don't normally use?).

I still need to learn how to properly manage trailing stops and lot size, any insight on these ones? (sometimes, you feel like you don't want to give back some inital profit where profitable trade turns into a loss).

Much appreciated,
Peter


The exotic time frames are used to create a chart where conditions look more favorable than the other time frames.

(EDITED TO AVOID CONFUSION)

My advise on trailing stops is NEVER USE THEM!
Try using the Minimum Move Trader's Trick...

My method for SL is to treat every pair the same based on the 5m range.

The EURUSD 5m 288 is sitting at 15.5.
The minimum stop I would use is a 1.5x or 23.2 pip stop
and the maximum stop I would use is a 2.5x or 38.7 pip stop.

A 1.5x stop is used for scalping a single candle and you have around a 75% chance of being able to mitigate your loss.

A 2.5x stop insures that over 90% of the time you will not get
wicked out of a trade and you will have room to exit at a smaller
loss and some times no loss at all.

If you started with $400 and are risking 4% or $16 a trade then
you would divide 16 by 38.7 and trade 4 micro lots. ($0.41 per pip)
If you were using a 23.2 pip stop then divide 16 by 23.2 and trade
6 micro lots ($0.68 per pip)
Continue to risk the same $16 per trade even if you lose 1 or 2 trades.
when you can add more micro lots then add them, but never reduce your trade size.

All this is made simple by using TRO DRAGON MONEY MGMT and saving your template when ever you lot size has increased.

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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:45 am

razorboy wrote:MO- I think I might love you - will let you know tomorrow for sure


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIuKtp3y ... re=related

lol :roll:

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Postby razorboy » Thu Jan 08, 2009 12:50 am

better than this trader's anthem - listen to the lyrics - opening line - if you are familiar with little feat, you wont even have to listen to the song (starts 2 minutes in)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8V1olWt8I0
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:04 am

When the 5m candle closes against me that is when I start to get worried because my SL is based on the 5m chart.
If my SL was based on a different time frame then I would use a candle from that chart.

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Trade in Action

Postby razorboy » Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:26 am

any input is welcome - aiming for the top of the most recent red - there was a prior support line- not in picture that was not reached - so a ZL was not reached - this is the bounce - i hope
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trade continued

Postby razorboy » Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:37 am

hanging out for a bit..............

and then pop -

I actually closed this out by mistake before the high - meant to move my stop loss up

a whopping 5 pips - better than hemorrhoids............when would you have bailed
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Postby prochargedmopar » Thu Jan 08, 2009 1:45 am

Mighty one, I really like your idea of candle overlays. It really opens my eyes to be able to see what's going on with the H1 candle. Takes the mysterious properties from it. Even makes me feel like I could scalp in the middle, wicks, ect. Sure helps for the setup going to the line also. Now I see what you were talking about when you said to get the price you wanted.
Thanks a bunch. Had some fun today with TRO and gang in paltalk. It was my first losing day but learned a lot for 2morrow. Overconfident and out of control on the stops. -104 for two sessions.
Pro
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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