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pierre23
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Postby pierre23 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 12:35 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:Hey pierre:

Sounds like you are using the PSYCHOLOGICAL TRADES and Ed is using the Buy Zone.

Either way, you can make a profit.

It's up to the trader to find and use what works for them.

Remember, it's not good/bad or right/wrong when it comes to trading....

IT IS PROFITABLE/UNPROFITABLE!!


Right, I use Psychological lines and your dynamic Fibs. And if I make a buzzard trade, trade at the line. There were quite a few nice buzzards this hour.. and a few set up for next.

USD/JPY went great this hour for a trade on the phsyco line.. had the opportunity for +25pips

EUR/JPY even better.. too bad I missed it

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razorboy
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Trouble with the Buzzard

Postby razorboy » Thu Dec 11, 2008 12:39 am

cfabian,

Not sure if you just jumped in to the buzzard trades right away or you have some experience "seeing price". I was running into similar issue that you were - and I have been staring at these lines for a long two months....

So here is what I did - I ignored the hour candle and the day candle and just watched price and resistance - price does not know time. Not having done any statistical analysis, I can't argue that the relation between the color of the hour candle, the direction of your trade and the out come are simply an illusionary correlation, but that is my suspicion - what matters is support and resistance and that is about it.

So before you get into buzzard trades, buy zone trades or a triple back flip with a twist of lime half short half long Fibonacci special, spend some time just taking long trades. What does price do to make you go long (a successful long trade that is)? is it when it passes a pivot point? Is it when it passes a certain retracement level? is it when price makes a new 5 period high. Keep a record of what works for you. Also look at what sort of market was it - was there a strong trend, a solid trading range or tight and flat.

By just getting good at going one direction at first, chances are you will make half as many mistakes and probably end up profitable :)

At the end of the day, I would rather know why I was a making certain mistakes than think I was a good trader because I was just getting lucky.

Just my two pips worth

pierre23
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Postby pierre23 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 12:56 am

"triple back flip with a twist of lime half short half long Fibonacci special"

LOL, that reminded me of the other week, we went out on a boat for my bosses birthday. Naturally, we had a drink or two... or more like too many.

A mate and I were around the bar on the boat, so we decided to make our own drink. My name is Pierre, so we named the drink the 'perfect pair'. (Hey it sounded cool because its close to my name haha)

So the drink was:
A Splash of vodka
A Hint of Taquila
A Drop of Jagar
A Twist of Lime
A Dropplet of Lemonade (literally a dropplet...)
A Plop of Ice (Plop? Don't ask..)

Warning: Please, do NOT try this at home.. I'm serious don't ever, in your life, make this drink.

Anyway when you said that line it made me laugh, so I thought I'd share =]

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Postby pierre23 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:00 am

My Trades today:

[GBP/JPY]
Entered Short: 137.20
SL: NONE YET

Notes:
I did have a healthy pip gain just before (it went down to 136.77), but price has come back up. The spread also has jumped up, it was around 4ish now its 9+.. stupid spread =[ If it seems like price will continue falling I'll stay in the trade. By late afternoon, spread will come down to 3-4 again (as it normally always does in the arvo AEST). But I'm confident it will break previous support (136.77), but as always, this is forex, price may come back to bite me in the ass. Only time will tell.

---------------------------------------------------------

[EUR/USD]
Entered Long: 1.3019
SL: NONE

Notes:
I'm looking for price to break resistance today at 1.3070. I'll just keep an eye out and either close the trade by the time I leave work, or put a trailing SL or TP above current resistance. Have to see how it goes in a few hours.

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Postby pierre23 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:16 am

http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pick-of-t ... sd_50.html

Babypips pick of the day, exact opposite of my EUR/USD trade. If you're reading this now/time of post, what are your comments on this? Long or Short?

I still think LONG. We'll see how we go. So far I'm +20pips up and they're -36.

He does have a pretty convincing chart there over at bp.com though.. Perhaps I should take my profit and exit?

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Turtle Rules

Postby razorboy » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:20 am

Is anyone familiar with the Turtle rules and have any experience with them in Forex? Specifically their entry and exit points?

Entries

The Turtles were given rules for two different but related breakout systems we called
System 1 and System 2. We were given full discretion to allocate as much of our equity
to either system as we wanted. Some of us chose to trade all our equity using System 2,
some chose to use a 50% System 1, 50% System 2 split, while others chose different
mixes.
System 1 ? A shorter-term system based on a 20-day breakout
System 2 ? A simpler long-term system based on a 55-day breakout.
Breakouts
A breakout is defined as the price exceeding the high or low of a particular number of
days. Thus a 20-day breakout would be defined as exceeding the high or low of the
preceding 20 days.
Turtles always traded at the breakout when it was exceeded during the day, and did not
wait until the daily close or the open of the following day. In the case of opening gaps,
the Turtles would enter positions on the open if a market opened through the price of
the breakout.
S ystem 1 Entry - Turtles entered positions when the price exceeded by a single tick the
high or low of the preceding 20 days. If the price exceeded the 20-day high, then the
Turtles would buy one Unit to initiate a long position in the corresponding
commodity. If the price dropped one tick below the low of the last 20-days, the Turtles
would sell one Unit to initiate a short position.
System 1 breakout entry signals would be ignored if the last breakout would have
resulted in a winning trade. NOTE: For the purposes of this test, the last breakout was
considered the last breakout in the particular commodity irrespective of whether or not
that particular breakout was actually taken, or was skipped because of this rule. This
breakout would be considered a losing breakout if the price subsequent to the date of
the breakout moved 2N against the position before a profitable 10-day exit occurred.
The direction of the last breakout was irrelevant to this rule. Thus, a losing long
breakout or a losing short breakout would enable the subsequent new breakout to be
taken as a valid entry, regardless of its direction (long or short).
However, in the event that a System 1 entry breakout was skipped because the
previous trade had been a winner, an entry would be made at the 55-day breakout to
avoid missing major moves. This 55-day breakout was considered the Failsafe
Breakout point.
At any given point, if you were out of the market, there would always be some price
which would trigger a short entry and another different and higher price which would
trigger a long entry. If the last breakout was a loser, then the entry signal would be
closer to the current price (i.e. the 20 day breakout), than if it had been a winner, in
which case the entry signal would likely be farther away, at the 55 day breakout.
System 2 Entry - Entered when the price exceeded by a single tick the high or low of
the preceding 55 days. If the price exceeded the 55 day high, then the Turtles would
buy one Unit to initiate a long position in the corresponding commodity. If the price
dropped one tick below the low of the last 55 days, the Turtles would sell one Unit to
initiate a short position.
All breakouts for System 2 would be taken whether the previous breakout had been a
winner or not.


Turtle Exits
The System 1 exit was a 10 day low for long positions and a 10 day high for short
positions. All the Units in the position would be exited if the price went against the
position for a 10 day breakout.
The System 2 exit was a 20 day low for long positions and a 20 day high for short
positions. All the Units in the position would be exited if the price went against the
position for a 20 day breakout.

I was thinking of setting up the fib lines to use as entry and exit points, but wondered if it is possible to really use a system like this with Forex because the market is trading 24 hours a day - you would have to trade all the time, otherwise you would be skewing the results of the system

Any thoughts?

The turtles themselves said that they had more winners than losers - just that the size of the winners were that much bigger, so I am not too sure that you can apply these rules

PS - these rules were copied directly from a freely available rule book

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Postby razorboy » Thu Dec 11, 2008 2:38 am

Hey, where did Msforex go?
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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Postby Ray_1 » Thu Dec 11, 2008 3:13 pm

pierre23 wrote:http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pick-of-the-day/pick_of_the_day_eurusd_50.html

Babypips pick of the day, exact opposite of my EUR/USD trade. If you're reading this now/time of post, what are your comments on this? Long or Short?

I still think LONG. We'll see how we go. So far I'm +20pips up and they're -36.

He does have a pretty convincing chart there over at bp.com though.. Perhaps I should take my profit and exit?


Well pierre,

The trade is declared at the beginning of the week. If ppl who took the trade locks in their profits at 50 pips and not be greedy, it will be a profitable trade. Like what TRO said, grab whatever you see. Greed is a great enemy of traders. :D

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Postby cfabian » Thu Dec 11, 2008 5:26 pm

pierre23 wrote:
eudamonia wrote:
cfabian wrote:Buzzard was on "get ready" for EURUSD, with 4 green candles.
Got in at next H1, at open -6 pips (red candle), it reversed and turned green again. I stoped it at -15.

Any comments on this trade?


cfabian,

A couple thoughts on this trade. The first is that it has been my observation that "good" buzzard trades should immediately show you the money. Others may disagree but if I see the first 5 min bar where I get in close in the opposite direction - I get out. I try to keep my risk under 10 pips.

Second, is that you can see that in the 3rd hour we already bounced off of resistance in a meaningful way. This might be a tip that selling is all done for the moment.

Lastly, remember that there are winning trades and there are losing trades. The key is to ride your winners and cut your losers. If you don't start making pips in the first couple minutes the odds are that this isn't an ideal trade. Why risk money on less than ideal trades? Just get out for +1, 0 or -2 or even -5. Trade like a cheetah - if that gazelle doesn't go down on the first paw swipe - why are you still chasing it?

Edward


First up, you said it went 6pips into RED, and you enetered when the hour opened? How much was the spread? Looks like there were a FEW pips to be taken if price stalled before going back up.

Second: I NEVER trade as soon as the hour opens, even if there are 3 green/red before it. You have your psychological lines plotted at the 00 25 50 75. Why not use them?

The hour opened in the middle of the 75 and 00 lines. If price went down to your 75 line its more of a confirmation that the candle wont reverse right away.

If it was me I would have even had a limit order for LONG at the 1.3000 line. I find after it hits a 00 it generally keeps going for xx pips. Not to say that it won't reverse, but it generally keeps going a bit.


Thanks Ed, Pierre and Razor for your answers.
As per Ed's, I cannot see that significant move off resistance that indicates no more downs... it was for around 25 pips.

I agree with your risk no more than 10 p. Actually, I was used to trade EURJPY, but spread is varying so much (from 4 to 9). I know... I don't have ECN broker, I'm with IBFX. Due to this, I decided to try EURUSD, which has a 2 pip fixed spread. For scalping this spread is reasonable.

Pierre, as per your's, spread was 2. I got 3 pip profit, but it picked up so fast to H1 opening price I couldn't do anything.

I was trying the buzzard, as all the idicators where there. Thus didn't trade the horizontal lines.

Razor, thanks for your words as well.

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Postby Sweet Pip » Thu Dec 11, 2008 6:31 pm

Hi TRO,
Since you're an IB for MBT, I wondered if these new regulations would affect you. Forex Savior on BP posted this:

The forex market has long been known as the Wild West of Finance due to its unregulated nature. But the frontier is being tamed and it now appears the day of the unregulated Introducing Broker is drawing to a close. While the CFTC has not yet released its new Forex Dealer rules to the public the NFA just issued a preliminary set of guidelines for all introducing brokers who are now required by law to be licensed: http://www.nfa.futures.org/compliance/f ... erview.asp National Futures Association | Compliance

Among the rules, IBs must maintain net capital of $45,000. Aside from other requirements like proficiency exams and disclosure documents the NFA is doing background checks which require finger printing
It's not always about getting what you want...it's wanting what you've got!

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