TheRumpledOne wrote:
THE DRAINING CONTINUES...
Hi TRO, I am having fun learning with the indicators you sent me. Btw, in the !!!!_BZ_MT4_20081124 pack, what is the name of the Tro Buzzard for Dummies indicator.
Thanks
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TheRumpledOne wrote:
THE DRAINING CONTINUES...
razorboy wrote:is the ea programmed to take the first reversal entry after a 3 hour trend or does it just take every reversal opportunity.
If you just take every reversal opportunity, then yes, it is at best a zero sum game. If you actually look at previous price trend, much different story.
I can't program EA but I have played both ways - taking every entry I see regardless of the previous 3 hour trend and then using the previous 3 hour trend to determine if I should take a trade. My entries were based off of TRO's dynamic Fib Lines and the buy and sell signals they generate.
There is a huge difference in the success ratio of you only enter a reversal trade at the end of a 3 hour (or more ) trend. There is almost always a profit opportunity.
I have taken enough statistics course to know what you are getting at and agree with you if you take every trade. If you swing at every pitch, you are going to strike out a lot - with a lot of home runs (and a lot of commissions). I've done the numbers myself on a spreadsheet for over 3000 minutes for various currency pairs and yes over all, you will fail
If you are more discriminating, you get a lot of singles and doubles. But unless you have programmed you EA to include TRO's logic - not just his entry and exit points based on price reversal, yes, you will lose - but you are only using half of his rules - its like driving a car that randomly, without any warnings, loses its brakes or its reverse gear - good luck with that.
But I would rather you think that this doesn't work....so keep with that thought
msforex wrote:razorboy wrote:is the ea programmed to take the first reversal entry after a 3 hour trend or does it just take every reversal opportunity.
If you just take every reversal opportunity, then yes, it is at best a zero sum game. If you actually look at previous price trend, much different story.
I can't program EA but I have played both ways - taking every entry I see regardless of the previous 3 hour trend and then using the previous 3 hour trend to determine if I should take a trade. My entries were based off of TRO's dynamic Fib Lines and the buy and sell signals they generate.
There is a huge difference in the success ratio of you only enter a reversal trade at the end of a 3 hour (or more ) trend. There is almost always a profit opportunity.
I have taken enough statistics course to know what you are getting at and agree with you if you take every trade. If you swing at every pitch, you are going to strike out a lot - with a lot of home runs (and a lot of commissions). I've done the numbers myself on a spreadsheet for over 3000 minutes for various currency pairs and yes over all, you will fail
If you are more discriminating, you get a lot of singles and doubles. But unless you have programmed you EA to include TRO's logic - not just his entry and exit points based on price reversal, yes, you will lose - but you are only using half of his rules - its like driving a car that randomly, without any warnings, loses its brakes or its reverse gear - good luck with that.
But I would rather you think that this doesn't work....so keep with that thought
The EA only places a reversal trade after 3 same colored candles!
Basically I agree with you that after a long trend there will almost certainly be a reversal. However, the market doesn't swing in a H1 frequency (or multiples)! The up and down frequencies change almost all the times, and to make things worse, there is interference between multiple waves! So to find a 6PIP reverse on a H1 timeframe is like searching for a needling in a haystack. Or - according to Sampling Theorem - when trying to read an x second signal with a H1 frequency we will only get "noise".
To really be able to detect a reversal we would need to analyze on much lower timeframes and try to "detect" the main "frequency" of the current market move and try to predict the timing of its reversal swing.
msforex wrote:razorboy wrote:That zero sum result was exactly what I was referring to
with out the knowldege of knowing where to put your sl's and tp, it is kinda like this quote from the movie better off dead
Charles De Mar: [giving skiing instructions] Go that way, really fast. If something gets in your way, turn.
Attached is a small EA which implemented the "logic" of the Buzzard Reverse (or whatever it is called). Play around with stoploss and takeprofit or even better let the optimizer run: use whatever settings you want - you will always lose!
And, if you are still not convinced set the expert parameter "Random" to true so the EA will use an Random Order-Trigger instead of the "Reverse Logic". Can you SEE any difference?
So this thread should be better named "Never win again"... this is a zero-sum pure gambling - same as if you open an order randomly. YOU will always lose - only the ONE "selling" the indicators will make a certain profit!!!
TRO - no hard feelings: You seem to have quite substantial trading and programming skills - why don't you use them to write some really profitable EA or indicators instead of wasting our time with this crap? It has been PROVEN that this is possible! http://championship.mql4.com/
Can you DO it????
kaybee123 wrote:TheRumpledOne wrote:
THE DRAINING CONTINUES...
Hi TRO, I am having fun learning with the indicators you sent me. Btw, in the !!!!_BZ_MT4_20081124 pack, what is the name of the Tro Buzzard for Dummies indicator.
Thanks