Never Lose Again

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

User avatar
kaybee123
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 3
Joined: Thu Oct 30, 2008 8:24 pm
Reputation: 0
Location: Frankfurt am Main
Real name: Kevin Bryan
Gender: Male

TRO BUZZARD FOR DUMMIES

Postby kaybee123 » Sat Dec 06, 2008 4:58 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

THE DRAINING CONTINUES...


Hi TRO, I am having fun learning with the indicators you sent me. Btw, in the !!!!_BZ_MT4_20081124 pack, what is the name of the Tro Buzzard for Dummies indicator.
Thanks

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

msforex
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2008 1:35 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby msforex » Sat Dec 06, 2008 5:00 pm

razorboy wrote:is the ea programmed to take the first reversal entry after a 3 hour trend or does it just take every reversal opportunity.

If you just take every reversal opportunity, then yes, it is at best a zero sum game. If you actually look at previous price trend, much different story.

I can't program EA but I have played both ways - taking every entry I see regardless of the previous 3 hour trend and then using the previous 3 hour trend to determine if I should take a trade. My entries were based off of TRO's dynamic Fib Lines and the buy and sell signals they generate.

There is a huge difference in the success ratio of you only enter a reversal trade at the end of a 3 hour (or more ) trend. There is almost always a profit opportunity.

I have taken enough statistics course to know what you are getting at and agree with you if you take every trade. If you swing at every pitch, you are going to strike out a lot - with a lot of home runs (and a lot of commissions). I've done the numbers myself on a spreadsheet for over 3000 minutes for various currency pairs and yes over all, you will fail

If you are more discriminating, you get a lot of singles and doubles. But unless you have programmed you EA to include TRO's logic - not just his entry and exit points based on price reversal, yes, you will lose - but you are only using half of his rules - its like driving a car that randomly, without any warnings, loses its brakes or its reverse gear - good luck with that.

But I would rather you think that this doesn't work....so keep with that thought


The EA only places a reversal trade after 3 same colored candles!

Basically I agree with you that after a long trend there will almost certainly be a reversal. However, the market doesn't swing in a H1 frequency (or multiples)! The up and down frequencies change almost all the times, and to make things worse, there is interference between multiple waves! So to find a 6PIP reverse on a H1 timeframe is like searching for a needling in a haystack. Or - according to Sampling Theorem - when trying to read an x second signal with a H1 frequency we will only get "noise".

To really be able to detect a reversal we would need to analyze on much lower timeframes and try to "detect" the main "frequency" of the current market move and try to predict the timing of its reversal swing.

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Dec 06, 2008 5:14 pm

That is exactly the point..........entry is based on a 5 minute chart.............. set up is on the 1 hour chart........im sure you could use the 30 minute chart as well

msforex wrote:
razorboy wrote:is the ea programmed to take the first reversal entry after a 3 hour trend or does it just take every reversal opportunity.

If you just take every reversal opportunity, then yes, it is at best a zero sum game. If you actually look at previous price trend, much different story.

I can't program EA but I have played both ways - taking every entry I see regardless of the previous 3 hour trend and then using the previous 3 hour trend to determine if I should take a trade. My entries were based off of TRO's dynamic Fib Lines and the buy and sell signals they generate.

There is a huge difference in the success ratio of you only enter a reversal trade at the end of a 3 hour (or more ) trend. There is almost always a profit opportunity.

I have taken enough statistics course to know what you are getting at and agree with you if you take every trade. If you swing at every pitch, you are going to strike out a lot - with a lot of home runs (and a lot of commissions). I've done the numbers myself on a spreadsheet for over 3000 minutes for various currency pairs and yes over all, you will fail

If you are more discriminating, you get a lot of singles and doubles. But unless you have programmed you EA to include TRO's logic - not just his entry and exit points based on price reversal, yes, you will lose - but you are only using half of his rules - its like driving a car that randomly, without any warnings, loses its brakes or its reverse gear - good luck with that.

But I would rather you think that this doesn't work....so keep with that thought


The EA only places a reversal trade after 3 same colored candles!

Basically I agree with you that after a long trend there will almost certainly be a reversal. However, the market doesn't swing in a H1 frequency (or multiples)! The up and down frequencies change almost all the times, and to make things worse, there is interference between multiple waves! So to find a 6PIP reverse on a H1 timeframe is like searching for a needling in a haystack. Or - according to Sampling Theorem - when trying to read an x second signal with a H1 frequency we will only get "noise".

To really be able to detect a reversal we would need to analyze on much lower timeframes and try to "detect" the main "frequency" of the current market move and try to predict the timing of its reversal swing.
Last edited by razorboy on Sat Dec 06, 2008 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Dec 06, 2008 5:19 pm

in theory, you could use this same approach using a 5 minute and 1 minute chart, but the commissions/slippage/slow reflexes may get in the way.

My partner scalps using a five minute and one minute chart......and does 30 to 60 pips a day playing one currency. It actually just hit my how and why it was working
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!

http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Dec 06, 2008 5:35 pm

I got this approach up and running across 10 currencies yesterday after noon - had ten entries across 7 or 8 currencies - 10 winners. it could be a statistical abnormality, but I don't think so. Prior to this I was just looking at once currency and taking set ups that I thought looked good with the Fib lines - sometimes it worked great, sometimes, not so much........
I have learned on once currency...........so now i am expanding my repertoire..
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Dec 06, 2008 6:45 pm

Ms Forex................you had the "duh" moment yet..............
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

User avatar
eudamonia
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 536
Joined: Thu Jun 15, 2006 9:50 pm
Reputation: 0
Location: Rocklin, CA
Real name: Edward Heming
Gender: Male
Contact:

Postby eudamonia » Sat Dec 06, 2008 10:18 pm

msforex,

See my thread about B.S. Backtesting. Your EA proves nothing. Go do some homework on the failures of MT4's EAs. Even their own programmers know that EAs are fail. Especially with free unreliable historical data.

BTW it doesn't require any money to trade the buzzard. No indicator is for sale. Can you count to 3? Gee wiz, a 3rd grader can trade this method and prove it works with real trades.

Since you have no intent of actually doing your homework (i.e. taking real trades) then please leave this thread since you have nothing of value to contribute.

Regards.

Edward
Eudaimonia (pron.: you-die-moan-e-a) (Greek: εὐδαιμονία) is a classical Greek word commonly translated as 'happiness'. The less subjective "human flourishing" is often preferred as a translation.

User avatar
razorboy
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 627
Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2008 2:06 am
Reputation: 0
Location: Toronto
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby razorboy » Sat Dec 06, 2008 10:45 pm

I would cut ms forex some slack unless she is actually being intentionally malicious. If you just run the stats using a single time frame, without dropping down to a lower frame to trade, she is probably right.

When I was trading off of the fib lines on a 5 minute chart without really checking the h1 chart, there would be times I would be doing amazing - typically a trending market - up for half an hour, down for half and hour - back and forth - traces and retraces were spot on - then the market starts trending up and I would get killed when I went in for a reversal trade. Price would retrace to say the 38% level and then bounce the wrong way. I ran a number of spread sheets using only the 5 minute charts for Eurus and USJPN - sometimes there would win, sometimes lose - pretty much a zero sum game if you were lucky. I knew i was missing the obvious

Using the higher time frame to screen trades gets rid of the noise - yes, you miss a few, but you really do get focussed in on higher risk reward trades - the idea being that after 3 consecutive hours, price has moved too far in one direction and someone in the market will at least attempt to push it back

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11405
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Dec 06, 2008 11:58 pm

msforex wrote:
razorboy wrote:That zero sum result was exactly what I was referring to

with out the knowldege of knowing where to put your sl's and tp, it is kinda like this quote from the movie better off dead

Charles De Mar: [giving skiing instructions] Go that way, really fast. If something gets in your way, turn.


Attached is a small EA which implemented the "logic" of the Buzzard Reverse (or whatever it is called). Play around with stoploss and takeprofit or even better let the optimizer run: use whatever settings you want - you will always lose!



And, if you are still not convinced set the expert parameter "Random" to true so the EA will use an Random Order-Trigger instead of the "Reverse Logic". Can you SEE any difference?



So this thread should be better named "Never win again"... this is a zero-sum pure gambling - same as if you open an order randomly. YOU will always lose - only the ONE "selling" the indicators will make a certain profit!!! :shock:

TRO - no hard feelings: You seem to have quite substantial trading and programming skills - why don't you use them to write some really profitable EA or indicators instead of wasting our time with this crap? It has been PROVEN that this is possible! http://championship.mql4.com/

Can you DO it????


I do NOT code EAs.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 11405
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 45
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Re: TRO BUZZARD FOR DUMMIES

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Dec 07, 2008 12:03 am

kaybee123 wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

THE DRAINING CONTINUES...


Hi TRO, I am having fun learning with the indicators you sent me. Btw, in the !!!!_BZ_MT4_20081124 pack, what is the name of the Tro Buzzard for Dummies indicator.
Thanks


TRO_BUZZARD.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “TheRumpledOne”