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adaseb
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Postby adaseb » Tue Nov 09, 2010 2:09 am

Oh yes I see.

Yes that's what I use.

61.8 and 38.2, i trust the most. Sometimes I might use the 50

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Postby mook » Tue Nov 09, 2010 2:22 am

Thanks, I was told that while using the standard fibs, one would expect to achieve a 70% success on trades. I've made a few trades but I still use closing CCs to determine whether or not pa will cross and zip out a range.

Ad, Please clarity. You set your fibs of a range. Lets say low 3 sema to hi 3 sema. You expect it to retrace back to 61%? I can see that by the pic I just posted. However how do you determine the whether it will retrace back up to the 38% level? Only after it crosses the 50%. This method still confounds me.
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Postby adaseb » Tue Nov 09, 2010 4:09 am

mook wrote:Thanks, I was told that while using the standard fibs, one would expect to achieve a 70% success on trades. I've made a few trades but I still use closing CCs to determine whether or not pa will cross and zip out a range.

Ad, Please clarity. You set your fibs of a range. Lets say low 3 sema to hi 3 sema. You expect it to retrace back to 61%? I can see that by the pic I just posted. However how do you determine the whether it will retrace back up to the 38% level? Only after it crosses the 50%. This method still confounds me.


I highly doubt fibs achieve a 70% success rate. They are good indicators but not that accurate.

You usually use a most recent low to a most recent high. Usually the daily low and high work great, sometimes a common resistance and support area can be used as fibs. When you plot them more often you know which range to use. Basically pick a point that you think others traders will pick also.

You don't expect it to retrace back anywhere. Just because it goes to the 61% doesnt mean it will go to the 50% or the 38%. In the pic you posted I would short at that 61% fib line back down. When it hit 61% the 3rd time I would short it there again probably because of a Head and Shoulders pattern.

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Postby adaseb » Tue Nov 09, 2010 4:14 am

By the way, the way those fibs that you plotted doesn't look right.

A better way would be to use the 3846 - 3895 range and buy off the 61.8% at 3865.

It no coincidence that it held in that area and rallied up.

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Postby mook » Tue Nov 09, 2010 4:30 am

Ad,

Yes, I fib'd a longer range (3sema to 3sema).

The pic below~Adjusted my fibs, and I can see what you've advised. I will continue to watch this. Thanks again.
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Postby mook » Tue Nov 09, 2010 4:38 am

Curious. Same pair as previous, but Dragon Fib'd 4h.
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Postby adaseb » Tue Nov 09, 2010 6:30 am

In Candlestick theory. If there is a wide spread candle, there is good support from the bottom to the middle and vice versa.

mook
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Postby mook » Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:04 pm

2 charts:

1st: Standard fibs.
2nd: Dragon 4hr.

Trying to determine which works best for the scalp. Dragon it seems allows me to TP or add units at a certain line. Standard fibs ~ herd mentaility ~ assumes that if alot of people are using standard fibs more than likely pa will hit fib line targets.
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Postby mook » Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:07 pm

Currently up 15 pips now. Price stalling~ consider closing.

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Postby mook » Tue Nov 09, 2010 1:20 pm

Holding....
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