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adaseb
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Postby adaseb » Tue Jun 07, 2011 11:51 am

oh, im not familiar with MO's closing over a line method. maybe somebody else can answer.

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newscalper
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Postby newscalper » Tue Jun 07, 2011 1:13 pm

Looks purdy now with some different lines
Image

I didn't take it, see black lines. Same thing over and over. Whenever I see short I'm seeing reasons not to take, when I see long I see reasons not to take. Recently, when I go 'what the hell' and take it anyway, I lose.

What's going on?

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Postby mook » Fri Jun 10, 2011 2:45 am

Hi New,



1. I've drawn two yellow lines on various areas of your chart to represent areas of inflection.
2. Remember, I view these areas as points where there is indicision in the market.
3. Typically the setup is MOMO, Zline, and TP. However I believe it is more prudent to understand these areas as a range rather than just a line. Price closing below or above this range will give you a better idea of where price will be going.
4. You already have the insights. Your black lines and higher tf zlines already identify this range. Now combine them and see how you do.
5. Please remember, as I have said many times before, that I'm in it for the scalp. I like taking my 5-10 pips many time during the day. Sometimes I get lucky and take a bunch more.

6.I believe that this 'range' method, or some kinda blind mouse method, works for longer term trades on higher tf's.

** I hate marking up an existing chart, as anyone can appear to be an expert trader. Look at what i've done here, and compare it to my live trade charts i've posted on this thread. There is enough of a corelation that you can judge that this method works. Remember that if you give yourself room (range) to determine future p.a; I think you are being discreationary.
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mook
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Postby mook » Fri Jun 10, 2011 11:48 am

*** You don't know where price is going.

1. Draw lines to indicate the inflection area
2. When price breaks the range up or down, go in that direction. Ride for as long as you can hold out.
Last edited by mook on Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby mook » Fri Jun 10, 2011 12:04 pm

price closes over your range, go in. Simple.

1. Keep drawing your range lines. If price stalls or crosses. Get out, or stay in.
Last edited by mook on Thu Jun 16, 2011 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby newscalper » Fri Jun 10, 2011 2:34 pm

Hehe, thanks. My issue I guess is that I see so many lines of inflection, especially if I view other time frames as well that I can't anything. My issue with seeing charts on the net is that they never show the whole story - on my chart there are lines and lines and lines all the way up and down and there are new lines being created as price moves also, I simplify them for posting after the fact as I'm sure most people do: you just have to look even further to the left to see the dozens of lines. If you start adding fibs it gets worse. It's also very easy to draw lines after it's happened too :shock: and it's very easy to say 'price did this because of this line'. Well there's so many of them that it's bound to react to one of them. Or is it?

If all the lines are so close together that the distance between them is less than average range for n bar they become meaningless in that firstly it becomes no better than drawing random lines (someone used to do that didn't they ;) ) as you don't know which price will go through and which it will bounce off and if the range is small and price appears to 'stall' and you get out you have no chance of holding for any profit? I know lines are just an 'idea' of where price turned in the past and we don't even know what the next tick will do..maybe we just kid ourselves with lines, I don't know.

On a 5min chart (only an example), contrary to some ideas you have to capture more than 1 green candle to even break even. I had a trade on the other night to prove this to myself, scalping over night which I don't normally do as the range isn't there. Anyway, I took a rat entry and it then had to move 9 candles + to make 10 pips, so that's 1 red candle against = loss and a very quick loss, or almost an hour of waiting to make 10 pips (inc spread))) and you may go through one line only to bounce off the next.

Yeah, I know, no-one said trading was easy :lol:

As I've tried to say in another thread and I apologise for cross posting, I'm also looking at CC and 3CC close over/under. The charts are always nice when captured but in real time, if you're buying the pullback to the line, once that candle has closed against you the viewpoint changes dramatically because you then have a close over/under in the opposite direction and it becomes obvious it's a no trade. Using 3CC gets even 'dafter' as the first CC closing over the line is usually going to be the first timeframe bar or the second one, if it's 'get out if ANY CC closes across the line'.

Trading breakout retracements and 'two bar' reversals are in direct conflict with each other in a way. Retracement: we see momo and want get in on the pullback, the ideal 'setup' is price coming quickly down to the stops i.e. it's momo the other way guys. If it whips up and makes a wick it looks great....I'm not even sure if MO said, when he put the zline forward that he looks to get wicked in, body in direction of profit, wick in direction of loss, there's no wick in direction of loss until after it's made the wick. I'm not certain if getting in at the zline wasn't what everyone on the forum understood it to mean (which on the chart is getting in back at the breakout point). Now if you were trying to get wicked in and that bar closes against, which is going to happen very quickly indeed, some will continue to hold in case it goes 'their way'. Others will fold, others will see the two bar reversal they were waiting for and go for the trade in the opposite direction. At S/R there are so may orders placed in opposite directions because everyone trades the same levels that it ends up being a crapshoot.

The obvious thing might then be to trade it the other way BUT I then see all theses lines going the other way too, plus changing the mindset in an instance from trading a reversal to a breakout or from a breakout to a reversal is not easy...lines lines lines...is it just fooling me and I was right on initial direction and it's just going to whipsaw me again in the other direction if I get in again. After all, supply/demand are zones, not just a price. So at the moment if the first trade loses I stay out as my plan is invalidated.

I don't know what's going on in my head, I used to be able to capture 200 pip moves albeit with a wider get out, now I can't even get 10, so there's no chance of pressing winners as my first entry is getting slaughtered every time.

I'm typing to much and I don't want to appear too negative about trading, I'm quite up-beat actually, sorry.:arrow:


Argh my head is mashed :arrow: :arrow: :arrow: :arrow: :arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

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Postby aliassmith » Fri Jun 10, 2011 3:13 pm

newscalper wrote:Hehe, thanks. My issue I guess is that I see so many lines of inflection, especially if I view other time frames as well that I can't anything. My issue with seeing charts on the net is that they never show the whole story - on my chart there are lines and lines and lines all the way up and down and there are new lines being created as price moves also, I simplify them for posting after the fact as I'm sure most people do: you just have to look even further to the left to see the dozens of lines. If you start adding fibs it gets worse. It's also very easy to draw lines after it's happened too :shock: and it's very easy to say 'price did this because of this line'. Well there's so many of them that it's bound to react to one of them. Or is it?

If all the lines are so close together that the distance between them is less than average range for n bar they become meaningless in that firstly it becomes no better than drawing random lines (someone used to do that didn't they ;) ) as you don't know which price will go through and which it will bounce off and if the range is small and price appears to 'stall' and you get out you have no chance of holding for any profit? I know lines are just an 'idea' of where price turned in the past and we don't even know what the next tick will do..maybe we just kid ourselves with lines, I don't know.

On a 5min chart (only an example), contrary to some ideas you have to capture more than 1 green candle to even break even. I had a trade on the other night to prove this to myself, scalping over night which I don't normally do as the range isn't there. Anyway, I took a rat entry and it then had to move 9 candles + to make 10 pips, so that's 1 red candle against = loss and a very quick loss, or almost an hour of waiting to make 10 pips (inc spread))) and you may go through one line only to bounce off the next.

Yeah, I know, no-one said trading was easy :lol:

As I've tried to say in another thread and I apologise for cross posting, I'm also looking at CC and 3CC close over/under. The charts are always nice when captured but in real time, if you're buying the pullback to the line, once that candle has closed against you the viewpoint changes dramatically because you then have a close over/under in the opposite direction and it becomes obvious it's a no trade. Using 3CC gets even 'dafter' as the first CC closing over the line is usually going to be the first timeframe bar or the second one, if it's 'get out if ANY CC closes across the line'.

Trading breakout retracements and 'two bar' reversals are in direct conflict with each other in a way. Retracement: we see momo and want get in on the pullback, the ideal 'setup' is price coming quickly down to the stops i.e. it's momo the other way guys. If it whips up and makes a wick it looks great....I'm not even sure if MO said, when he put the zline forward that he looks to get wicked in, body in direction of profit, wick in direction of loss, there's no wick in direction of loss until after it's made the wick. I'm not certain if getting in at the zline wasn't what everyone on the forum understood it to mean (which on the chart is getting in back at the breakout point). Now if you were trying to get wicked in and that bar closes against, which is going to happen very quickly indeed, some will continue to hold in case it goes 'their way'. Others will fold, others will see the two bar reversal they were waiting for and go for the trade in the opposite direction. At S/R there are so may orders placed in opposite directions because everyone trades the same levels that it ends up being a crapshoot.

The obvious thing might then be to trade it the other way BUT I then see all theses lines going the other way too, plus changing the mindset in an instance from trading a reversal to a breakout or from a breakout to a reversal is not easy...lines lines lines...is it just fooling me and I was right on initial direction and it's just going to whipsaw me again in the other direction if I get in again. After all, supply/demand are zones, not just a price. So at the moment if the first trade loses I stay out as my plan is invalidated.

I don't know what's going on in my head, I used to be able to capture 200 pip moves albeit with a wider get out, now I can't even get 10, so there's no chance of pressing winners as my first entry is getting slaughtered every time.

I'm typing to much and I don't want to appear too negative about trading, I'm quite up-beat actually, sorry.:arrow:


Argh my head is mashed :arrow: :arrow: :arrow: :arrow: :arrow: :arrow: :arrow:


:lol:
Does your brain hurt yet?

You try to hard.

Watch live charts, make trades at low risk until you SEE!

The low risk will take away the aggravation.

Look at higher timeframes for direction and lower timeframes for timing.

zlines work, s/d works, breakouts work, range/correction works, S/R works,
but none of them work all of the time.

Pick one method and focus only on how to make money with it. There
are too many ways to trade and only one you so focus not diversify.

Get your mind right. Even though MightyOne, es/pip, dragon, AJay etc. make
"stupid" gains you are not them. When I came to grips with 10% in a month
being a good return my trading actually became better because I don't need
100% a day. Don't get me wrong I would like to do it at least one time. 8)
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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newscalper
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Postby newscalper » Fri Jun 10, 2011 4:19 pm

Well there's a thing you see - 'pick a method', I see them all as the same method really. it's all the same thing depending on which chart you look at. What looks like a zline on a larger TF chart looks like a supply demand trade on a smaller chart. Close over a line, take the pullback, same thing again.

Same thing, different viewpoint.

:cry:
















:lol:

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Postby newscalper » Fri Jun 10, 2011 4:25 pm

Mook - so are you playing range breakouts then?

aliassmith
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Postby aliassmith » Fri Jun 10, 2011 5:02 pm

newscalper wrote:Well there's a thing you see - 'pick a method', I see them all as the same method really. it's all the same thing depending on which chart you look at. What looks like a zline on a larger TF chart looks like a supply demand trade on a smaller chart. Close over a line, take the pullback, same thing again.

Same thing, different viewpoint.

:cry:
















:lol:


Right it is all about the same thing. The thing is if you have too much going on in your head how will u ever focus.
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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