Middle analysis - Taking home the Pips

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khalid
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STOPS WOULD BE BETTER

Postby khalid » Mon Aug 18, 2008 7:43 am

Now that I am better acquainted with Middle buys and sells, I feel liqudating:

LONGS a tick, or X ticks, below previous low;
SHORTS a tick, or X ticks, above previous high;

should work better.

And would be more in accord with the price-only condition of the method.

Khalid
Last edited by khalid on Mon Aug 18, 2008 8:48 am, edited 1 time in total.

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RicG
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Postby RicG » Mon Aug 18, 2008 8:34 am

khalid,

The method already uses Stop Losses and Take Profit numbers. From pitboss's post July 14th:

"Have since refined with a stop loss and take profit. The stop loss is 1.65 standard deviations which represents 90% of probable senerio outcomes. The take profit is 1.96 standard deviations which represents 95% of probable senerio outcomes."

The formula used is on his spreadsheet which can be downloaded on this forum.

Ric
(Disclaimer - This post is for educational purposes only. Always consult a licensed investment professional before taking any trade. Any trade you take is at your own risk.)

khalid
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Postby khalid » Mon Aug 18, 2008 9:07 am

RicG,

Please forgive the interference.

If whatever I am trading manages to lose more than 98% of profits accumulated over a period of 10 weeks in just 3 weeks I would seek remedy.

But, of course, if it ain't broken don't mend it!

Khalid

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RicG
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Postby RicG » Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:45 pm

Khalid,

I am papertrading Pitboss's system as is outlined in this thread, so you should be addressing your concerns to him. As I understand it, he used years of data to come up with his entry/exit/stop loss/take profit system.

I am merely giving the results of my papertrading that system.

If you have some specific suggestions for stop loss/take profit numbers when trading this method I'd love to hear them.

Ric
(Disclaimer - This post is for educational purposes only. Always consult a licensed investment professional before taking any trade. Any trade you take is at your own risk.)

khalid
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Postby khalid » Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:24 am

I have great respect for pitboss. With only a small number of posts on kreslik.com, his contribution are enormous.

Pitboss has repeatedly stressed one must ensure that the 'bet' doesn't exceed the bankroll * advantage.

Please forgive me if I have got this wrong but your first post on 18 August gives the impression your paper-traded 'bet' remained constant despite the fast deteriorating bankroll * advantage.

Over that period the system went 5-18 (21.7%) losing $10,390 dollars based on 10 units each trade.


I have already posted my yet-to-be-tested suggestions regarding stops; I have no opinion on take profit.

Khalid

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RicG
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Postby RicG » Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:37 am

Khalid,

The papertrade amount did remain the same. Therefore, for the first 10 weeks the amount should've been increased as the bankroll increased.

You suggestion of "X ticks" concerning stops is not specific. I'd love to hear your specific suggestion.

If you would be so kind as to share your knowledge I'll papertrade that and share it with the board.

Ric
(Disclaimer - This post is for educational purposes only. Always consult a licensed investment professional before taking any trade. Any trade you take is at your own risk.)

khalid
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RISK CONTROL

Postby khalid » Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:46 am

Please visit

http://www.amazon.com/gp/reader/0965046 ... eader-link

and read pages 1 to 7 of Larry Connors Advanced Trading Strategies.

This is copyrighted material which I cannot reproduce here.

Khalid

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Postby khalid » Tue Aug 19, 2008 8:54 am

Ric,

The stops suggestion is yet only an idea.

Please post the losing streak O-H-L-C data in EXCEL or TXT and I shall first of all do an analysis on this small but important section of data.

Khalid

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RISK CONTROL_II

Postby khalid » Tue Aug 19, 2008 9:09 am

Attached is part of another piece on risk control by Larry Conners which I copied from the web and saved.

I read it every day.

Khalid
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riskCONTROL.pdf
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khalid
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STOPS 1 TICK OUTSIDE PREVIOUS HIGH/LOW

Postby khalid » Tue Aug 19, 2008 10:40 am

Herewith results of a quick study on EURO Futures 28 July onwards.

It remains to be seen what happens:

when the data sample is larger;
when market(s) are not trending.

Khalid

(EDIT) I hope my arithmetic is correct!
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MIDDLE buysell_EURO.xls
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