lukx zline trading log + cfabian p.35 + adaseb p.48

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lukx
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Postby lukx » Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:21 pm

Thanks PTG, so if I shouldn't sell into demand zone I basically shouldn't also look at moving average?

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Postby PTG » Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:42 pm

Yes you should. The moving average tells something about the general direction.

If the general direction is down, and you just hit a demand zone, as we did on GU, and considering that you want to have the odds in your favor, you want to

a) wait until the general direction has turned and find an entry for a long (the earlier in the move the better), and/or
b) look for an entry to go short while the general direction is short.

In case of b), it is not a high probability/low risk trade to do so at the end of a run. You have to think of this in terms of buyers and sellers. At the end of the run down, sellers are exhausted, that's why price goes up: more buyers than sellers. At the end of a run, chances are that the trend turns around.

You want to look for high probability/low risk trades. Selling when the sign says "sold out" might mean you're selling at the lowest point. Just like in real life, who wants to do that ? Not a good idea, is it.

Watch Sam Seiden again and again. You have to see this in terms of buyers and sellers of two sorts: people who know (institutions and retailers who act like those) and people who don't know (the 95% of the retailers that TRO refers to). It is so simple, really. Took me quite a while to realize that. I'm thinking too much at times #-o
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Postby lukx » Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:45 pm

SL got hit:
Image

I got the feeling 1h and 4h doesn't match my personality. Too much waiting, while on 5m I could grab something I guess.

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Postby PTG » Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:49 pm

Alternatively, you can omit the general direction and just see what happens after finding momo up on an H1 after a H4 reversal. I mean right now you could have had some nice pips if you would have gone long against the trend..

Anything can happen, really. Main thing is that one learns to understand the market dynamics: what drives it. The other thing is to have a plan with an edge and trade accordingly. The plan should be suitable to you, and only you. You don't want to imitate others. The plan needs to be simple and applicable to all timeframes.

Hope this helps.
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Postby PTG » Mon Oct 26, 2009 1:57 pm

lukx wrote:SL got hit:

I got the feeling 1h and 4h doesn't match my personality. Too much waiting, while on 5m I could grab something I guess.


I'm not you, I can only tell you my opinion. I think your issue right now is that you don't quite understand the market dynamics, what is underneath. If you don't see them longer term, then it is of no use going shorter term because you will still have that same issue. You need to work on that understanding, as per my previous posts. That's what I think.

Furthermore I think you are on the right track by putting down some rules for yourself. Do not punish yourself by thinking 'oh no, not another loss'. It is simply because you don't quite see what is behind all this. Just continue your path, and you will learn :wink:
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Postby es/pip » Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:25 pm

lukx wrote:SL got hit:
Image

I got the feeling 1h and 4h doesn't match my personality. Too much waiting, while on 5m I could grab something I guess.



i will follow along and try and help

the first time you are negative or start whining i am gone.


1. pick one market to start with

2. trade a size that has no positive or neg effect on your account size

you are looking at that zl as an automatic short and took a position

you cant just take the zl's bec they are there. If you were to look inside and try and take a short and then get out when it is not working i could understand that.

but blindly putting that trade on and especially letting it go to your full stop is a no no.

Now, i do things the way i do them and i am not saying you should do the same things i do.

But

my "20 pip" stop is a disaster stop that rarely ever gets hit. As soon as things dont look like they are going my way i get out at b/e or at a small loss. I dont just let my stop get hit bec it is going against me and i am hoping it turns around. If it doesn't go my way immediately then odds are i may not be right

you should have been trading long bec that is the way the market is going

you have to look at what is happening---not what you think is going to happen---how the bars are forming and what they mean


do you see why?

Image
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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Postby lukx » Mon Oct 26, 2009 3:48 pm

Thank you very much for all the help PTG and es/pip
.
No whining from now on, only winning ;)

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Postby PTG » Mon Oct 26, 2009 6:07 pm

My pleasure.

This might also help to put things in perspective: http://www.tradingacademy.com/lessons/2 ... mevans.htm
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Postby PTG » Mon Oct 26, 2009 10:05 pm

lukx wrote:Thanks PTG, so if I shouldn't sell into demand zone I basically shouldn't also look at moving average?


Your question got me thinking once more, after reading the es/pip above.

A moving average is a lagging indicator. The bigger the number of bars
that are averaged, the more it lags. You cannot win with lagging indicators
alone, simply because that's what the herds do and that's why they lose.

I suppose it is better to use your eyes: higher highs, higher lows (trend
up) and lower highs, lower lows (trend down).

As for the zones:

BUY at demand zone,
SELL at supply zone.

Momo's are a sign of big imbalances between buyers/sellers at the origin
of that momo. If and when price revisits that area, you want to enter into
a trade in the direction of that originating momo, simply because there are
more buyers/sellers that want to buy/sell but didn't get their orders filled.
That's what the institutions do, they wait until price comes back to the
level at which their customers have told them to buy/sell.

So: don't sell into a demand zone (or sell into a support zone) unless you
can see a profit margin that suits you (3:1), the profit margin being the
distance between the supply/demand zone you want to trade in between.

If you look at the targets that es/pip indicated in his picture, you can see
that price stayed only little time at the bars left of the top two target
lines;this is because of the imbalance in supply/demand and the exact
reason why that momo formed. Price will get back there (unfinished
business).
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Postby dieselboy101 » Mon Oct 26, 2009 11:12 pm

I have opened my own log for trading zlines a few days ago and I will be watching your log to see how you progress along, I know you have had a lot of trouble trading zlines but keep thinking positive thoughts bro and never give up...You are surrounded by great minds (im not one of them lol) and they all be here to help.

Much respect bro,
Dieselboy
STAY HUNGRY

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