Kenyuki's BuyZone Trading Blog

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Kenyuki
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Postby Kenyuki » Fri Oct 23, 2009 5:36 am

Hello lukx,

lukx wrote:Ken, you're entering long when bid or ask price hit the bz? same question for short.


I always place stop-limit orders.
You might wanna review this to understand further:
http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=28352#28352

noone22, our Maths wiz, has helped me out quite a lot ;).

Cheers,
Ken.

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Postby lukx » Fri Oct 23, 2009 5:57 am

Kan if I may ask why did you choose GBPUSD instead EURUSD which has smaller spread?

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Kenyuki
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Postby Kenyuki » Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:04 am

Hello lukx,

lukx wrote:Kan if I may ask why did you choose GBPUSD instead EURUSD which has smaller spread?


Because TRO said it works well with the Cable, that's it :lol:

Cheers,
Ken.

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Postby Kenyuki » Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:09 am

700 trade:

Image

Short @ 1.66353, exit @ 1.66422

Total pips = - 7

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Postby Horizon » Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:11 am

Same..

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Postby Kenyuki » Fri Oct 23, 2009 6:15 am

Horizon wrote:Same..


And look at where it is now Horizon, hehe - funny that.

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Postby Kenyuki » Fri Oct 23, 2009 7:05 am

800 trade:

Image

Long @ 1.66426, exit @ 1.6636


Total pips = - 6

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Postby Patch » Fri Oct 23, 2009 11:07 am

Kenyuki

Great chart, I can definitely see the numbers on the right, even the blue on black. Which of the dashed blue lines do you use, and why. What is the top and what is the bottom blue lines? It looks like you entered on the lower blue line. So you have a 3 pip entry target on an M1 chart of GBPUSD. So you have a 7 pip profit target, correct? and a 6 or 7 pip stop loss. yes?

Does your trading plan include a single reversal, close and reopen trade in opposite direction if price crosses the short target entry?

Or can you change your entry target for long and short to 2.2. I don't know what statistics Michal and TRO ran on FX BZ. Looking at the Wick, short distribution if you make the entry at 2 pips don't you have about a 9 of 10 winning trade likelihood if I am reading the distribution right. (see below attached).

Also have you considered lowing you profit target and stop loss? I wonder what would happen?

I will put the tails indi back on my chart over the weekend. I was putting some ideas together with charts and removed the tails part to lessen clutter and confusion. I miss it though.

Patch
The Pirate
In VA

ADDED PS: I've changed the wick chart below.
Horizon - This chart shows over the last "1440" bars there were (red#4) 839 or 90.41% that had wicks with a length of 0-2 pips. What does this mean to your trading? So if you have an entry target of 2.0 pips or more you have a 90% likelihood that your trade will not be stopped out by the wick going higher than 2 pips. 9 out of 10 trades will not be stopped out from losses because of what ultimately, when the candle formation is complete, is a wick formation. Remember this analysis is after all candles are complete.

Now if you add Red#3 to Red#4 906 bars have wicks from 0-4 pips in lengths, or you have a 97.63% likelihood again of not being stopped by what ultimately is a short candle when completed.

If you want higher probability than 97.63% add in the Red#2 and #1. But the added pips is more that I want to use to gain the meager increase.

So thats what I know about wick distribution. If you are a green BZ Rat, then I suggest doing a similar analysis of tail lengths by setting the "TopWick" variable in settings to False.
Attachments
wicks 2009.10.23.jpg
wicks 2009.10.23.jpg (15.98 KiB) Viewed 1342 times
Last edited by Patch on Fri Oct 23, 2009 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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Kenyuki
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Postby Kenyuki » Fri Oct 23, 2009 11:41 am

Hello Patch,

Patch wrote:Which of the dashed blue lines do you use, and why. What is the top and what is the bottom blue lines?


Please see here:
http://kreslik.com/forums/viewtopic.php?p=28800#28800

Patch wrote:It looks like you entered on the lower blue line. So you have a 3 pip entry target on an M1 chart of GBPUSD. So you have a 7 pip profit target, correct? and a 6 or 7 pip stop loss. yes?


Default target profit is 6, stop loss 7. It might change as I take the trades depending on how the orders get filled.

Patch wrote:Does your trading plan include a single reversal, close and reopen trade in opposite direction if price crosses the short target entry?


No. I only trade once per hour. If it busts, then so be it.

Patch wrote:Or can you change your entry target for long and short to 2.2.


I do not see any point in doing that for now. This method has been tried and trusted and I'm not going to mess around with it :lol:

Great traders have laid it all out already, and all I want to do is use it :).

Patch wrote: I don't know what statistics Michal and TRO ran on FX BZ. Looking at the Wick, short distribution if you make the entry at 2 pips don't you have about a 9 of 10 winning trade likelihood if I am reading the distribution right. (see below attached).


Sorry Patch, I'm not going to Yale. I'll be honest and admit I have no idea what you are talking about :lol:

Patch wrote:Also have you considered lowing you profit target and stop loss? I wonder what would happen?


I'd rather stick to the trading plan for now.

Patch wrote:I will put the tails indi back on my chart over the weekend. I was putting some ideas together with charts and removed the tails part to lessen clutter and confusion. I miss it though.


I'm sorry, I'm not the right person to chat about wicks and tails. I have no idea what they are all about :smt102 .

Thanks for your interest.

Speak soon,
Ken.

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Postby noone22 » Fri Oct 23, 2009 12:14 pm

Kenyuki wrote:600 trade:
Image
Long @ 1.66557, exit @ 1.6649
Total pips = -7


I won't be entering this trade at all.
Overall price movement (at least) will to be taken into account.
2 previous candles were red. Entry (long) candle was green for
a moment and then - continued to go down.
I don't think, that I would blindly enter Long at each & every
green candle, which happens to be green in the BuyZone.
At least, candle open must be below bottom BuyZone line
and price must go up, ideally for 1.5 candles or more.

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