HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

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The_Snowman
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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby The_Snowman » Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:31 am

some thoughts about HOLO, in the posted rules, it ends with this:

WARNING

When price breaks through yesterday's high or low or makes a new high or low today, that is a breakout! Trade the reversal with caution.

Now, sure I agree with being cautious, but find it ironic that as HOLO is basically a reversal, top / bottom picking strategy, this seems at odds with the goal of actually catching a price reversal

Surely we all know the chart pattern of Railroad? And how often have you seen price totally reverse at New York close on a daily candle?

If you cannot find any example, please let me know, I will post for you.

Even on the weekly, price often goes some pips above or below last week range, and boom, that's the weekly high or low, totally opposite direction.

As a trend / breakout trader, I've lost count of the number of times that I've been told, don't go long there, it's resistance, price will reverse!

Traders should fully embrace this method as they are always looking to sell highs and buy lows, well, that's what I see usually.

I will explore this on 4 Hour charts in the next few posts, if I don't get banned by TRO :D

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby The_Snowman » Sun Apr 21, 2019 4:52 am

I'm curious if anyone has looked at this as an entry for swing trading strategy?

I'm thinking 4 Hour candles during the week, nothing longer, grab some pips and out by Friday, but not this 5 pips stuff!

It might be slower, but people might be able to handle it better than trying to figure out stuff every hour, from what I see on FF anyway.

Let's have a look at current situation of GBPCAD for the past week.

Blue, horizontal lines are the previous weeks' High and Low, obviously, and vertical, dotted lines are the start of the week

So, at the Highest Open line, price did trade 1 pip above but who could see that, and enter there?

Now, 14 hours later, price did trade above and I put RED down arrow there. This is a case of, is the warning in the rules warranted?

WARNING

When price breaks through last week's high or low or makes a new high or low today, that is a breakout! Trade the reversal with caution.

Smaller time frames will reveal more later.

2019-04-21_14-37-19.jpg
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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby The_Snowman » Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:12 am

Drop to the 1 hour chart, here we can easily see where price did indeed, as per the rules, go up through and comes back down!

In fact, the first 1 hour candle closed above the 4 Hour Highest Open, so plenty of time to analyze and prepare proper trade risk management

That would be calculating the Stop Loss at the current weekly high, plus a few pips to round to 25 pips.

We know the entry, all ready to go. Next candle goes down, entry is made, third candle shows rejection of higher price.

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby The_Snowman » Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:19 am

Down to the 30 minutes chart, this gets interesting as session time shows this is right at London Open

How good is that? Talk about a low risk entry, never threatened the stop loss, at New York open, it is already 2 to 1 R:R

All that is needed is a Profit Target :shock:

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby The_Snowman » Sun Apr 21, 2019 5:30 am

Back to the 4 Hour to see what could have been with 100% hindsight of course

When price goes lower than the weekly open, green dotted line, there is a new lowest open 4H at the arrow

Do we exit and try to enter long?

Do we read price action? Or stick with some trailing stop? How far away?

Price runs for 200 pips from entry, it's a bigger range than the previous week, how awesome to exit there

Good luck all :mrgreen:

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby LeMercenaire » Sun Apr 21, 2019 7:59 pm

The_Snowman wrote:some thoughts about HOLO, in the posted rules, it ends with this:

[b]WARNING


When price breaks through yesterday's high or low or makes a new high or low today, that is a breakout! Trade the reversal with caution.

Now, sure I agree with being cautious, but find it ironic that as HOLO is basically a reversal, top / bottom picking strategy, this seems at odds with the goal of actually catching a price reversal

Surely we all know the chart pattern of Railroad? And how often have you seen price totally reverse at New York close on a daily candle?

If you cannot find any example, please let me know, I will post for you.

Even on the weekly, price often goes some pips above or below last week range, and boom, that's the weekly high or low, totally opposite direction.

As a trend / breakout trader, I've lost count of the number of times that I've been told, don't go long there, it's resistance, price will reverse!

Traders should fully embrace this method as they are always looking to sell highs and buy lows, well, that's what I see usually.

I will explore this on 4 Hour charts in the next few posts, if I don't get banned by TRO
[/b] :D


I nearly missed this as it's been so long since a new post appeared!

One thing to bear in mind re ''the rules'', is where this variant of the method is being posted. The standard of trader...no, that's too harsh...the level of trader there is at an average, much lower, as there are a vastly larger number of rookies.

The warning you mention is only a heads-up for those who know what they are doing and that those who possibly don't quite know what they are doing, the logic is that if price is trading above / below yesterday's extremes, then there is a possibility that you could be looking at a freight train trend move. (TooSLow's words, not mine).

The thing with HOLO is, that it actually works best in a ranging market, where price will bounce between that upper and lower mark all day long.

One of the easiest ways to play it is to look for a (TS) 1-2-3 move first and then once that has established itself (whether you take it as a stand alone trade or not), you can then feel more confident in any HOLO set ups that you find.

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby LeMercenaire » Sun Apr 21, 2019 8:04 pm

The_Snowman wrote:I'm curious if anyone has looked at this as an entry for swing trading strategy?

I'm thinking 4 Hour candles during the week, nothing longer, grab some pips and out by Friday, but not this 5 pips stuff!

It might be slower, but people might be able to handle it better than trying to figure out stuff every hour, from what I see on FF anyway.


Let's have a look at current situation of GBPCAD for the past week.

Blue, horizontal lines are the previous weeks' High and Low, obviously, and vertical, dotted lines are the start of the week

So, at the Highest Open line, price did trade 1 pip above but who could see that, and enter there?

Now, 14 hours later, price did trade above and I put RED down arrow there. This is a case of, is the warning in the rules warranted?

WARNING

When price breaks through last week's high or low or makes a new high or low today, that is a breakout! Trade the reversal with caution.

Smaller time frames will reveal more later.

2019-04-21_14-37-19.jpg



I have mentioned before that I latched on to TS' stuff because it closely mirrored the long tf trades I used to run out in the world.

What you are doing here is pretty much what I was doing then (I also had some nifty Secret-Squirrel software and brains bigger than mine doing a chunk of the heavy lifting) but as I say, pretty damn close.

Have fun :lol:

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby The_Snowman » Mon Apr 22, 2019 11:42 pm

LeMercenaire wrote:
The_Snowman wrote:some thoughts about HOLO, in the posted rules, it ends with this:

[b]WARNING


When price breaks through yesterday's high or low or makes a new high or low today, that is a breakout! Trade the reversal with caution.

Now, sure I agree with being cautious, but find it ironic that as HOLO is basically a reversal, top / bottom picking strategy, this seems at odds with the goal of actually catching a price reversal

Surely we all know the chart pattern of Railroad? And how often have you seen price totally reverse at New York close on a daily candle?

If you cannot find any example, please let me know, I will post for you.

Even on the weekly, price often goes some pips above or below last week range, and boom, that's the weekly high or low, totally opposite direction.

As a trend / breakout trader, I've lost count of the number of times that I've been told, don't go long there, it's resistance, price will reverse!

Traders should fully embrace this method as they are always looking to sell highs and buy lows, well, that's what I see usually.

I will explore this on 4 Hour charts in the next few posts, if I don't get banned by TRO
[/b] :D


I nearly missed this as it's been so long since a new post appeared!

One thing to bear in mind re ''the rules'', is where this variant of the method is being posted. The standard of trader...no, that's too harsh...the level of trader there is at an average, much lower, as there are a vastly larger number of rookies.

The warning you mention is only a heads-up for those who know what they are doing and that those who possibly don't quite know what they are doing, the logic is that if price is trading above / below yesterday's extremes, then there is a possibility that you could be looking at a freight train trend move. (TooSLow's words, not mine).

The thing with HOLO is, that it actually works best in a ranging market, where price will bounce between that upper and lower mark all day long.

One of the easiest ways to play it is to look for a (TS) 1-2-3 move first and then once that has established itself (whether you take it as a stand alone trade or not), you can then feel more confident in any HOLO set ups that you find.


Yes, best in ranging markets, or at support / resistance levels I reckon. So the warning is not so much relevant in my opinion.

The thing with the 10 trade challenge and using 1 pair, I can understand why; it is very hard to determine so quickly on a 1 Hour candle when the price goes beyond and comes back, there is no confirmation. Sure, easy to say, just take the trade, but really, needs to define this as a pure scalping method.

Even on 4 Hour candles, it can be hard to determine. I intend to use as a guide only, with other price action and trend confirmation before entry. For example, nearly every candle has wicks, so there must be entry, right? But in those hours after New York close and London open, I'm not around, there are plenty of entry against trend but they don't go far.

Anyway, I shall see what develops during this short week, good luck

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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby Leoheart » Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:16 am

The_Snowman wrote:
LeMercenaire wrote:
The_Snowman wrote:some thoughts about HOLO, in the posted rules, it ends with this:

[b]WARNING


When price breaks through yesterday's high or low or makes a new high or low today, that is a breakout! Trade the reversal with caution.

Now, sure I agree with being cautious, but find it ironic that as HOLO is basically a reversal, top / bottom picking strategy, this seems at odds with the goal of actually catching a price reversal

Surely we all know the chart pattern of Railroad? And how often have you seen price totally reverse at New York close on a daily candle?

If you cannot find any example, please let me know, I will post for you.

Even on the weekly, price often goes some pips above or below last week range, and boom, that's the weekly high or low, totally opposite direction.

As a trend / breakout trader, I've lost count of the number of times that I've been told, don't go long there, it's resistance, price will reverse!

Traders should fully embrace this method as they are always looking to sell highs and buy lows, well, that's what I see usually.

I will explore this on 4 Hour charts in the next few posts, if I don't get banned by TRO
[/b] :D


I nearly missed this as it's been so long since a new post appeared!

One thing to bear in mind re ''the rules'', is where this variant of the method is being posted. The standard of trader...no, that's too harsh...the level of trader there is at an average, much lower, as there are a vastly larger number of rookies.

The warning you mention is only a heads-up for those who know what they are doing and that those who possibly don't quite know what they are doing, the logic is that if price is trading above / below yesterday's extremes, then there is a possibility that you could be looking at a freight train trend move. (TooSLow's words, not mine).

The thing with HOLO is, that it actually works best in a ranging market, where price will bounce between that upper and lower mark all day long.

One of the easiest ways to play it is to look for a (TS) 1-2-3 move first and then once that has established itself (whether you take it as a stand alone trade or not), you can then feel more confident in any HOLO set ups that you find.


Yes, best in ranging markets, or at support / resistance levels I reckon. So the warning is not so much relevant in my opinion.

The thing with the 10 trade challenge and using 1 pair, I can understand why; it is very hard to determine so quickly on a 1 Hour candle when the price goes beyond and comes back, there is no confirmation. Sure, easy to say, just take the trade, but really, needs to define this as a pure scalping method.

Even on 4 Hour candles, it can be hard to determine. I intend to use as a guide only, with other price action and trend confirmation before entry. For example, nearly every candle has wicks, so there must be entry, right? But in those hours after New York close and London open, I'm not around, there are plenty of entry against trend but they don't go far.

Anyway, I shall see what develops during this short week, good luck


Hey man, I like your form of thought. Following along. Thanks.
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Re: HOLO - Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade

Postby IgazI » Tue Apr 23, 2019 2:15 am

The_Snowman wrote:
...nearly every candle has wicks, so there must be entry, right? But in those hours after New York close and London open, I'm not around,...


It is extremely easy to write a strategy in Pine Script that can place and modify orders for you; you can even limit the number of entries during a trading window so it doesn't go crazy while you're away.

You can get your PDF
HERE

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