davrobs trades

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davrob
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davrobs trades

Postby davrob » Tue Sep 27, 2011 9:24 pm

Hi,

So I'm just learning this game and posting a few example trades, here's my first:



This was a very easy trade with almost no move against my direction.

I entered on a buzzard. My target was 6 pips or more (the 5min average range), and my stop was 10 pips, inline within 90% of a 5 minutes bar move. I exited using MO's Minimum Move trader's trick, described elsewhere as this forum:

1. Determine the smallest profit you are willing to take.
2. Let price "spike" past that profit level.
3. If price pulls away and doesn't make a new extreme in 5 ticks then place your exit order on the extreme.


I got my pips but felt I might have missed something else, by being too eager to cash in on my gains. This is what happened:



Comments Welcome. I only get to post once a day, so apologies if I don't get back to you immediately.

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:01 am

Notice that that red candle that closed over your entry was the first time that you could honestly say that price closed lower than "something"

If, during the decline, you asked yourself what price closed higher than then you would still be short from the looks of that chart.

That said...

You should make a trading plan and stick to it.

davrob
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Postby davrob » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:24 pm

MightyOne wrote:Notice that that red candle that closed over your entry was the first time that you could honestly say that price closed lower than "something"

If, during the decline, you asked yourself what price closed higher than then you would still be short from the looks of that chart.

That said...

You should make a trading plan and stick to it.


Thanks for the feedback MO. This is what I get from what you said:



That the candle that I entered on was the first one to make a breakout at the point where the yellow arrow is. The green candle did not interrupt this trend because it didn't close higher at the second yellow line, so the down trend was still in tact.

davrob
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Postby davrob » Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:52 pm

This is my latest trade using TRO's zz semaphore and dynamic fibs, my minimum target was 5 pips, the average 5 minute range. My stop was 10 pips, which contains 90% of all 5 minute ranges.



The multi-pair zz semaphore was showing a "2" on the H1.

This was my exit:



Although the green 15 minute candle closed against me, it did not break resistance, so I thought it ok to stay in the trade.

Again using MO's min move trader's trick I let price pass my target to see if momentum took it much further, and then once it pulled back on me I set my target as my minimum.

Price spiked down the next bar very quickly but then began to pull back quickly, so I exited as quick as I could.


My understanding around semaphores and dynamic fibs is not great. My understanding of the Semaphore is that it is a bet on extremes, once price reaches extremes it will pull back.

I'm really not sure how the dynamic fib lines are calculated or the "dummies" advice of "ok to go short" or "wait". Any advice anyone can give on the underlying basis of this setup would be greatly appreciated.

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Postby Humble » Thu Sep 29, 2011 1:02 am

There is more wisdom in MO's words than you'll ever need. It's just you need to be wise to understand the power of some of it.

The only indi I would wish to learn is one that helps you to see what MO sees.

I would love to know how many trades are now profitable as a result of only understanding half of what he said ;)
Is price closing higher or lower than something? Simple yet powerful question. ..MO

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davrob
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Postby davrob » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:09 pm

Not a great day, first off I missed about 6 buzzards that kicked off at 3pm NY. Then I tried to play off the retracement of one of those buzzard breakouts using zero lines ( see below, my attempts at ZLs in yellow) - I think one big mistake may have been trading after 4pm New York time, the market seemed dead flat after 4.




I exited after any downward momentum seemed to disappear, which turned out to be the right decision and a small loss.

At the same time (! - probably not a good idea to trade twice at the same time for a beginner), I decided to take a buzzard on the 4pm because I'd missed all the ones at 3pm (again, probably a really bad idea), this is how it turned out:


davrob
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Postby davrob » Thu Oct 06, 2011 8:22 pm

This was my latest trade, using ZLs only. Not any great theory of ZLs, just that ZLs are areas where price has changed previously - so where price has broken out or where price has stalled.

The only other thing I can remember from what MO said is that wicks show weakness and bodies strength - very often I see a ZL being wicked once or twice and then price taking off in the opposite direction. My entry used a standard target and SL of the average range and 90% of the maximum range respectively:

Image

I think maybe I should have waited for more confirmation, rather than just the "wick", but wicks seem to be a good reversal guide.

I exited after the H1 EUR/USD showed a 3ZZ fib and price crashed back towards the top ZL, after initally breaking through it.

Image

davrob
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Postby davrob » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:00 pm

Well the more I seem to be getting "a feel" for what ZLs are in the NLA post, the worse I seem to be trading.

Entry
====
Image

Exit
====
Image

The entry was made on MO's advice "if it makes little attempt to move to the ZL" the go with the direction away from the ZL. Conditions seemed right I was going in the direction of the H1 and the D1, but it turned out to be quite a big loss.

davrob
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Postby davrob » Mon Oct 17, 2011 8:10 pm

This one was also a small lose:

Entry
====
Image

Exit
====
Image

My entry was made, because the wicks were bouncing off the first ZL after a strong downward move - seemed to be an example of "bodies in the direction of profit, wicks of loss". I got out once a green body broke through the ZL destroying the set up. Actually price bounced around that ZL right until the end of the session.

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