Recently found a pdf that may be of some interest. It's too big to attach on the forum. Here's a bit of what it says:
EDIT: found the link. https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCEQFjAAahUKEwjtkLyFqO_GAhUEWxQKHX41DwY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forexfactory.com%2Fattachment.php%3Fattachmentid%3D1690233%26d%3D1433578830&ei=gtmvVe3HHIS2Uf7qvDA&usg=AFQjCNEwxmTwohoQGuuCo5gQknh_C3z_jw&bvm=bv.98197061,d.d24&cad=rja
It shows the probabilities of price moving x amount after it moves +-10 pips from the open - exactly what TRO shows
The Forex Report – DATA BRIEF
Predicting Price Action
By Scott Owens with Omer Lizotte
Price action is the foundation of all technical indicators, yet most traders do little to understand it. Within trades, price action creates the most important element of context, defining inflection points that affect market entry and exit. The sophisticated investor understands price action and uses it to frame every trading decision.
• How likely is a price move continuation given varying conditions?
• See the probability of price move continuation in assorted tables.
• Use breakouts to incorporate price action probabilities.
• Implement price action informed strategies in your trade exits.
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ABOUT THIS REPORT
The Forex Report is a periodic publication that investigates advanced strategies for superior trading performance in the foreign exchange markets. These reports utilize advanced statistical and econometric modeling techniques to create new insight into the trading strategy of the average trader. This Data Brief, Predicting Price Action, is intended for traders with moderate forex trading experience and technical analysis understanding.
To learn more about The Forex Report or to register for delivery of all future reports by email, including Case Studies & Data Briefs, please visit http://www.fxengines.com
The Forex Report November 2004
What happens when one of the major currency pairs moves 10 pips? 25 pips? 50 pips? How likely is it that it will continue for 10 more pips? 20 more? 50 more?
To find out, we took tic data for the four majors and analyzed it by trading interval and breakout level to see what the probability of these price move continuations would be.
The results of this study are insightful, but they do not substantiate any particular trading strategy specifically. Although we believe the price action of a particular currency is a major element of every trade, we leave it to each trader to determine how, if at all, these results are to be integrated with his/her trading strategy.
The goal of this study is to arm the trader with more information about price action than is currently available. When a trade has moved 10 pips in your favor, what is the general probability that it will continue to another level? We believe this is valuable information for all traders.
However, there are a number of caveats that we feel compelled to state:
• These probabilities are by no means hard and fast rules for trading. They represent a snapshot of data, some longer than others, and employ a very specific entry strategy which may be difficult to replicate in live manual trading.
• These probabilities are affected by seasonality and many other statistical conditions that may render them inaccurate in specific trading situations. In general, the shorter the interval, the greater the chance for these anomalies to occur.
• No representation is made regarding the accuracy of the prices used in this study or the probability values that result. We reiterate: this report is intended to enlighten the trader’s “sense” of the market, not inform any specific trading application.
© 2004. FX Engines, Inc. Reproduction or modification prohibited. For more information or a free subscription visit http://www.fxengines.com