DAILY WICK ZONE TRADING

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MightyOne
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Re: DAILY WICK ZONE TRADING

Postby MightyOne » Wed Jul 22, 2015 3:34 pm

Goonslinger wrote:It looks like it was a break in on the weekly chart.


I didn't even bother to check :oops:

For those of you who don't know, a "breakin" is when a candle closes over an extreme and the next candle bends
backwards and touches said extreme; the result is nearly always a move in the direction of the previous candle.

There are exceptions, the strength of the closed candle does matter...

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Re: DAILY WICK ZONE TRADING

Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:02 pm

MightyOne wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:
MightyOne wrote:Silly me, I just found the shift function :oops:

This is probably unacceptable but I'll post it to see what you have to say :lol:



Glad to have you posting here.


Wick Zone is probably the best thing that you have ever thought of, just saying :wink:


Yes, the Wick Zone proves over 70%. The Rat Zone hovers around 66%

However, the Buy Zone is over 95% You have to remember one wick zone will always contain the Buy Zone with the exception of Sunday if the gap is large.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Re: DAILY WICK ZONE TRADING

Postby MightyOne » Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:36 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:
Yes, the Wick Zone proves over 70%. The Rat Zone hovers around 66%

However, the Buy Zone is over 95% You have to remember one wick zone will always contain the Buy Zone with the exception of Sunday if the gap is large.


The Buy Zone from what open? Is it 95% no matter which open we choose?

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Re: DAILY WICK ZONE TRADING

Postby MightyOne » Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:50 pm

Good enough, time to go make myself some eggs.

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Re: DAILY WICK ZONE TRADING

Postby MightyOne » Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:15 pm

I think that I prefer the Wick Zone because it is so close to what I already do; initiating a trade from a long term extreme within a 'space'/zone of acceptable risk.

I am not saying that the BZ is not good, it is just an odd flavor to me :|

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Re: DAILY WICK ZONE TRADING

Postby Goonslinger » Wed Jul 22, 2015 5:54 pm

Recently found a pdf that may be of some interest. It's too big to attach on the forum. Here's a bit of what it says:

EDIT: found the link. https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCEQFjAAahUKEwjtkLyFqO_GAhUEWxQKHX41DwY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forexfactory.com%2Fattachment.php%3Fattachmentid%3D1690233%26d%3D1433578830&ei=gtmvVe3HHIS2Uf7qvDA&usg=AFQjCNEwxmTwohoQGuuCo5gQknh_C3z_jw&bvm=bv.98197061,d.d24&cad=rja
It shows the probabilities of price moving x amount after it moves +-10 pips from the open - exactly what TRO shows

The Forex Report – DATA BRIEF
NOVEMBER 2004
Predicting Price Action
By Scott Owens with Omer Lizotte

Price action is the foundation of all technical indicators, yet most traders do little to understand it. Within trades, price action creates the most important element of context, defining inflection points that affect market entry and exit. The sophisticated investor understands price action and uses it to frame every trading decision.

ANALYSIS

• How likely is a price move continuation given varying conditions?
DATA

• See the probability of price move continuation in assorted tables.
ACTION

• Use breakouts to incorporate price action probabilities.
• Implement price action informed strategies in your trade exits.
RELATED MATERIAL

Test-drive FX Engines for free online at http://www.fxengines.com to see the power of system building, system testing, and system automation.

ABOUT THIS REPORT
The Forex Report is a periodic publication that investigates advanced strategies for superior trading performance in the foreign exchange markets. These reports utilize advanced statistical and econometric modeling techniques to create new insight into the trading strategy of the average trader. This Data Brief, Predicting Price Action, is intended for traders with moderate forex trading experience and technical analysis understanding.

To learn more about The Forex Report or to register for delivery of all future reports by email, including Case Studies & Data Briefs, please visit http://www.fxengines.com.
The Forex Report November 2004

ANALYSIS

What happens when one of the major currency pairs moves 10 pips? 25 pips? 50 pips? How likely is it that it will continue for 10 more pips? 20 more? 50 more?

To find out, we took tic data for the four majors and analyzed it by trading interval and breakout level to see what the probability of these price move continuations would be.

The results of this study are insightful, but they do not substantiate any particular trading strategy specifically. Although we believe the price action of a particular currency is a major element of every trade, we leave it to each trader to determine how, if at all, these results are to be integrated with his/her trading strategy.

The goal of this study is to arm the trader with more information about price action than is currently available. When a trade has moved 10 pips in your favor, what is the general probability that it will continue to another level? We believe this is valuable information for all traders.

However, there are a number of caveats that we feel compelled to state:
• These probabilities are by no means hard and fast rules for trading. They represent a snapshot of data, some longer than others, and employ a very specific entry strategy which may be difficult to replicate in live manual trading.
• These probabilities are affected by seasonality and many other statistical conditions that may render them inaccurate in specific trading situations. In general, the shorter the interval, the greater the chance for these anomalies to occur.
• No representation is made regarding the accuracy of the prices used in this study or the probability values that result. We reiterate: this report is intended to enlighten the trader’s “sense” of the market, not inform any specific trading application.
© 2004. FX Engines, Inc. Reproduction or modification prohibited. For more information or a free subscription visit http://www.fxengines.com.
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Re: DAILY WICK ZONE TRADING

Postby Goonslinger » Thu Jul 23, 2015 8:39 am

No more weekly charts for me. #-o

And from now on, I'm going to go all in when MO posts a chart :D
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Re: DAILY WICK ZONE TRADING

Postby dchappy » Thu Jul 23, 2015 12:27 pm

MightyOne wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:
Yes, the Wick Zone proves over 70%. The Rat Zone hovers around 66%

However, the Buy Zone is over 95% You have to remember one wick zone will always contain the Buy Zone with the exception of Sunday if the gap is large.


The Buy Zone from what open? Is it 95% no matter which open we choose?

EURGBPM5.png

The quick & dirty stats that I have done show that the most profitable bz opens are those which match the pair . ie: Euro,Pound etc = London open ...Kiwi , Aussie etc = Sidney and so on .Which is what you would expect . The US majors however appear to move better from the NY pit open (9:30 est rather than th FOREX session open 8:30 est .) Again this is just what I have noticed , I'm sure Tro has more oncrete data ....

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Re: DAILY WICK ZONE TRADING

Postby MightyOne » Thu Jul 23, 2015 12:48 pm

Goonslinger wrote:No more weekly charts for me. #-o

And from now on, I'm going to go all in when MO posts a chart :D


...the result is nearly always a move in the direction of the previous candle.


I really don't like posting my charts, I just sort of felt obligated to anyone who may have taken a trade based on my post to
guide them into profit.

I most certainly will not post if no one else is posting; I am not here to be a teacher, I am here for discussion and mutual progress :lol:

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Re: DAILY WICK ZONE TRADING

Postby MightyOne » Thu Jul 23, 2015 12:49 pm

dchappy wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:
Yes, the Wick Zone proves over 70%. The Rat Zone hovers around 66%

However, the Buy Zone is over 95% You have to remember one wick zone will always contain the Buy Zone with the exception of Sunday if the gap is large.


The Buy Zone from what open? Is it 95% no matter which open we choose?

EURGBPM5.png

The quick & dirty stats that I have done show that the most profitable bz opens are those which match the pair . ie: Euro,Pound etc = London open ...Kiwi , Aussie etc = Sidney and so on .Which is what you would expect . The US majors however appear to move better from the NY pit open (9:30 est rather than th FOREX session open 8:30 est .) Again this is just what I have noticed , I'm sure Tro has more oncrete data ....


Thanks DC, I'll check it out.

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