Can a pigeon beat a rat?

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TheRumpledOne
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Can a pigeon beat a rat?

Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:36 pm

IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Re: Can a pigeon beat a rat?

Postby kiwiarian » Tue Feb 14, 2023 3:48 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons

I was thinking about how this applies to trading and I guess if you took a buy, price can do one of 3 things, it can go up, it can go sideways, or it can go down, so you have 2/3 a chance of BE or in profit.
2-3-notlosemoney.png
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Re: Can a pigeon beat a rat?

Postby Don_xyZ » Tue Feb 14, 2023 4:36 am

kiwiarian wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons

I was thinking about how this applies to trading and I guess if you took a buy, price can do one of 3 things, it can go up, it can go sideways, or it can go down, so you have 2/3 a chance of BE or in profit.
2-3-notlosemoney.png


Actually 4, not 3.
Price never go sideways.

First off, price either go up or down.
And then, it's either by a lot or a little.

So the chances are:

go up a lot
go up a little
go down a lot
go down a little

The illusion that price goes sideways is because it's the element of time that goes sideways while the price is actually stuck in a small range of movement(s).

Adam Smith said economy is using as little resource to gain as much as you can. In other words, risk as little as you can and make as much profit as the market allow.

TRO's question is tricky.

There will be times when a rat will beat a pigeon and there will also be times when a pigeon will get the upper hand. If it's aerial combat, the pigeon will crush the rat but if you strip the flight advantage, like in a sewer or a maze or inside a building, the rat will win. Therefore, understand the battlefield and timing and then use the appropriate style to make the most profit.
Do you trade money for time or time for money?

All relevant links in my threads:

Patterns Observation.
post148989#p148989

BONZ. Using technical indicators to trade.
post151670#p151670

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kiwiarian
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Re: Can a pigeon beat a rat?

Postby kiwiarian » Tue Feb 14, 2023 5:29 am

Don_xyZ wrote:
kiwiarian wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons

I was thinking about how this applies to trading and I guess if you took a buy, price can do one of 3 things, it can go up, it can go sideways, or it can go down, so you have 2/3 a chance of BE or in profit.
2-3-notlosemoney.png


Actually 4, not 3.
Price never go sideways.

First off, price either go up or down.
And then, it's either by a lot or a little.

So the chances are:

go up a lot
go up a little
go down a lot
go down a little

The illusion that price goes sideways is because it's the element of time that goes sideways while the price is actually stuck in a small range of movement(s).

Adam Smith said economy is using as little resource to gain as much as you can. In other words, risk as little as you can and make as much profit as the market allow.

TRO's question is tricky.

There will be times when a rat will beat a pigeon and there will also be times when a pigeon will get the upper hand. If it's aerial combat, the pigeon will crush the rat but if you strip the flight advantage, like in a sewer or a maze or inside a building, the rat will win. Therefore, understand the battlefield and timing and then use the appropriate style to make the most profit.


The box represented an element of time and price in which price could travel, which could be a 15 min time block, trading 1 min candles.
That block of time could help increase the odds if going sideways to get out at BE.
Yes, a 1 min candle on its own is up,down,up a lot or down a lot,
So my statement is that time could give you an extra chance to stay above the waterline?

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Re: Can a pigeon beat a rat?

Postby Yirbu » Tue Feb 14, 2023 8:04 am

Don_xyZ wrote:
kiwiarian wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons

I was thinking about how this applies to trading and I guess if you took a buy, price can do one of 3 things, it can go up, it can go sideways, or it can go down, so you have 2/3 a chance of BE or in profit.
2-3-notlosemoney.png


Actually 4, not 3.
Price never go sideways.

First off, price either go up or down.
And then, it's either by a lot or a little.

So the chances are:

go up a lot
go up a little
go down a lot
go down a little

The illusion that price goes sideways is because it's the element of time that goes sideways while the price is actually stuck in a small range of movement(s).

Adam Smith said economy is using as little resource to gain as much as you can. In other words, risk as little as you can and make as much profit as the market allow.

TRO's question is tricky.

There will be times when a rat will beat a pigeon and there will also be times when a pigeon will get the upper hand. If it's aerial combat, the pigeon will crush the rat but if you strip the flight advantage, like in a sewer or a maze or inside a building, the rat will win. Therefore, understand the battlefield and timing and then use the appropriate style to make the most profit.


So true, for me personally the trick is in understanding the battlefield. Yesterday I kept having loosing trades because I wasn't able to understand the battlefield. This is what happens to me ones in a while and I always am too late in realizing that I am in a situation I wil not win.
It has something to do with how price behaves, maybe the volatility I haven't figured it out yet. I will figure it out...soon :D

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kiwiarian
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Re: Can a pigeon beat a rat?

Postby kiwiarian » Tue Feb 14, 2023 8:16 am

Yirbu wrote:
Don_xyZ wrote:
kiwiarian wrote:I was thinking about how this applies to trading and I guess if you took a buy, price can do one of 3 things, it can go up, it can go sideways, or it can go down, so you have 2/3 a chance of BE or in profit.
2-3-notlosemoney.png


Actually 4, not 3.
Price never go sideways.

First off, price either go up or down.
And then, it's either by a lot or a little.

So the chances are:

go up a lot
go up a little
go down a lot
go down a little

The illusion that price goes sideways is because it's the element of time that goes sideways while the price is actually stuck in a small range of movement(s).

Adam Smith said economy is using as little resource to gain as much as you can. In other words, risk as little as you can and make as much profit as the market allow.

TRO's question is tricky.

There will be times when a rat will beat a pigeon and there will also be times when a pigeon will get the upper hand. If it's aerial combat, the pigeon will crush the rat but if you strip the flight advantage, like in a sewer or a maze or inside a building, the rat will win. Therefore, understand the battlefield and timing and then use the appropriate style to make the most profit.


So true, for me personally the trick is in understanding the battlefield. Yesterday I kept having loosing trades because I wasn't able to understand the battlefield. This is what happens to me ones in a while and I always am too late in realizing that I am in a situation I wil not win.
It has something to do with how price behaves, maybe the volatility I haven't figured it out yet. I will figure it out...soon :D


Never bring a knife to a gun fight...... Cant wait for the new Indiana Jones movie. Not sure if I can convince the kids to go.. Indiania who?


Speaking of time
carry1.jpg
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Re: Can a pigeon beat a rat?

Postby BambinoFlex » Tue Feb 14, 2023 8:54 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons


Even though we are thinking about the entries, buy or sell, as the doors, I think exiting is the real focus

On Entry, I think a large majority of people will be presented with some sort of profit.

When in profit, let it be 1 pip, 2 pip or 20 pips….

1. Do you keep position Open
2. Do you Liquidate
3. Do you move stop to break even or let price reach target

In my experience, most people choose #1 or #3. If they switch and chose #2 (even partially closing) I think they will be more successful.
"If you're wrong, guess what...thats TRADING"

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Don_xyZ
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Re: Can a pigeon beat a rat?

Postby Don_xyZ » Tue Feb 14, 2023 10:53 am

BambinoFlex wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:https://annieduke.substack.com/p/beaten-by-pigeons


Even though we are thinking about the entries, buy or sell, as the doors, I think exiting is the real focus

On Entry, I think a large majority of people will be presented with some sort of profit.

When in profit, let it be 1 pip, 2 pip or 20 pips….

1. Do you keep position Open
2. Do you Liquidate
3. Do you move stop to break even or let price reach target

In my experience, most people choose #1 or #3. If they switch and chose #2 (even partially closing) I think they will be more successful.


Like I said, understand the battlefield and timing. There are different situations and the timing for them.

The first few pages of my thread perfectly describe how to hold and even do it without a stop loss. That speaks confidence and confidence comes from understanding the battlefield and the timing. My anchor trade speaks about holding a trade for monstrous R multiples, using a stop loss. There are also times when you must cut short your profit in order to protect when things simply don't go well documented on the thread.

Pro said that Dave trained 16 hours a day for a prolonged time and because of that he knows every scenarios when things don't work and when things work. This is exactly what WIL is. It contained the various battlefields and how deal with them and what to do if things go wrong. The What Ifs List. This could side track the topic.
Do you trade money for time or time for money?

All relevant links in my threads:

Patterns Observation.
post148989#p148989

BONZ. Using technical indicators to trade.
post151670#p151670

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TheRumpledOne
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Re: Can a pigeon beat a rat?

Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Feb 14, 2023 2:53 pm

kiwiarian wrote:

Speaking of timecarry1.jpg


Find a pair that pays interest if you hold it long and play the carry trade. In the past, I played the USDCAD and AUDUSD for swap.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


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