Blind Mouse Strategy

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Wed Jun 09, 2010 4:26 pm

newark18 wrote:I was having a conversation with a buddy who worked in finance. And he assured me that pros/MMs do not move the market as I thought (i.e., to zero out held profit). I can't believe that he is right. The market seems to move in such an orderly way (from ZL to ZL).



All you have to do is read Market Wizards to answer that question...

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newark18
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Postby newark18 » Wed Jun 09, 2010 4:33 pm

So I am guessing I should buy this for his early birthday present?
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

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newark18
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Postby newark18 » Wed Jun 09, 2010 4:38 pm

MO, I am still a little unclear on when to use bodies instead of wicks as S&R lines. Do you have more examples?
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

aliassmith
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Postby aliassmith » Wed Jun 09, 2010 4:43 pm

MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:I was having a conversation with a buddy who worked in finance. And he assured me that pros/MMs do not move the market as I thought (i.e., to zero out held profit). I can't believe that he is right. The market seems to move in such an orderly way (from ZL to ZL).



All you have to do is read Market Wizards to answer that question...


OR....
Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator :shock:

The "pros" have their own plans and try to make them work to the best of
their ability. They use the "herd" to get their orders filled. It's a war out
there ladies and gentlemen :!:
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jun 10, 2010 7:45 am

newark18 wrote:MO, I am still a little unclear on when to use bodies instead of wicks as S&R lines. Do you have more examples?



Most of the time I use bodies, but if I ever think to myself that i would rather use a wick at x point in time then I will use a wick.

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Postby franck » Fri Jun 11, 2010 6:30 am

MightyOne wrote:
franck wrote:
MightyOne wrote:

How is every body doing?

Can't say the same here...

live long and prosper V.


Thank you so much MO!. Trading has been at its best level for me.

Not only the account is growing at a speed with the lowest drawdown ever, the win consistency has been awesome. since the blind mouse addition, the continuous win has been awesome, without any fear. how do you come out with all these? ingeniously powerfully simple.

For the rest, i urge everyone to study this thread carefully for here lie a (probably "THE") true wisdom of trading.

Adios.



I know THEIR strengths, weaknesses, and what strategy to build to meet them where they are.

I can see the path to success be it my path or your path.


it will be nice to get the view from the giant's shoulder. Current (many) paradigm is built from the statistical outlook, but lacking discrete grasp of behavior dynamic.

everyone (big or small, discretionary or mechanical, etc) is looking at the same PRICE. they are viewing it from different time frames with their analyses, which convince them to take the trade.

1) how does one starts breaking up the pieces?
2) how/where do i start to understand more about strength and weakness?
3) whose strength/weakness?

Thank you.
* anyOne can be prOfitable tradING ANY line. see it?

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newark18
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Postby newark18 » Tue Jun 15, 2010 11:54 am

MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:Hello all, what's up?

Well, I'll tell you what. I feel like my being successful is so close yet so far. I really haven't figured out the problem yet. Maybe I have to stick to one strategy at first and see how that plays out. I've been trying different methods (entry at daily+ extreme, blind mouse at reversal, continuation of price after prices crosses an S&R line, longer term versus short term holds, and etc). And I am getting really mixed results.

I moved my leverage down and increased my SL. I got 350 pips in my best stretch yet. I was focusing on the S&R lines on D3 CCs and playing them as continuations or reversals based on where price closes. I used the next S&R line as my potential exit. And I waited to see how price reacted to the next S&R line before I exited. So I was pumped but didn't know whether the success was due to decreased leverage or different trading method.

Then I start trading today. I didn't see many opportunities (although I noticed I missed some in hindsight). I decided to try entering off daily+ extremes but got run over a bunch of times. I definitely had less conviction today for some reason. I made some trades that I closed too early only to see it go in my direction. I think getting run over those few times got me scared.

Anyway, I just wanted to vent. I know that I will figure this out sooner or later. I am just frustrated. I am also finding trading to be a lot more stressful than I thought it was. I know, I know...wah wah, yes, please give me some cheese with my whine. But I smoked and I tend to have diarrhea of the mouth when I am high. (I didn't know how to spell diarrhea and it took me 10 mins to type that word into this message after looking it up. The word still looks like it is spelled wrong). So give me a break.

Later!



In the Google search tab type "define:wordhere" or "define wordhere" &, if it is wrong, it will say "did you mean _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _?"


It would help you if you asked yourself what I would see and do:

What is the smallest chart MO would be looking at?
:arrow: The 8H daily CC

Oh, so the Wick Doll is the daily+ extreme that MO is talking about.

What if I missed the daily MOMO or daily close over a line?
Looking...looking...errmm...oh, I would trade the daily extreme that is in the direction of loss based on some previous PA (daily close over a line?).

Remember:

Large stops do not help your trading, they simply make recovering from a loss a daunting task.

A large stop with a small position size, say 1/4, is still a small stop if you are going to be adding the other 3/4 later.

Successful trading is not achieved through skillful trading so much as it is achieved through skillful waiting.


Thanks for this response MO. This was very helpful as there are a few nuggets here. I also like the H8 STF candle, H8 CC and D1 CC setup. Anyway, looking forward to more of your posts. It feels like you been MIA for a little bit.
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

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newark18
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Postby newark18 » Tue Jun 15, 2010 8:58 pm

Here are two failed blind mice. The first is GJ. The second one is GU. This one was cutting it a little close (but I took it because I thought it was correlated to GJ at the time of the trade). The line with the red check mark is FC. And the blue triangle is entry. Any criticism is welcome.

Image

Image
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spa
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Postby spa » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:15 pm

newark18 wrote:Here are two failed blind mice. The first is GJ. The second one is GU. This one was cutting it a little close (but I took it because I thought it was correlated to GJ at the time of the trade). The line with the red check mark is FC. And the blue triangle is entry. Any criticism is welcome.

Image

Image

sure got a few lines on there....
from where i stand after the mouse closed under the fat cat line the validation/failure comes when the CC is finished, so you have another 8 hours or so to wait.

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newark18
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Postby newark18 » Tue Jun 15, 2010 9:33 pm

The red H8 CC was finished and provided confirmation of blind mouse. I am using D1 extremes as S&R lines. Daily candle closed above previous daily extreme and H8 CC closed below it to give confirmation of blind mouse.

I'm not sure what you mean in that I need to wait a another few hours for confirmation.
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

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