Blind Mouse Strategy

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johny
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Postby johny » Wed May 26, 2010 1:27 am

They say If we have the wisdom to learn, Tigers [a family of cat!] teach us tenacity!

Learning loads of it from fat cat :-)

Best Regards,
Johny

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Humble
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Postby Humble » Wed May 26, 2010 2:28 am

You're up late Johny!

I'm thinking that FC S&R (or a ZL) is going to be a good place to look for daily extremes.

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I had not thought of keeping a failed FC on the chart, neither do I seem to get a range to trade to. Not exactly entering on extreme either.

Thanks for posting your chart, enjoy the fish.
Last edited by Humble on Wed May 26, 2010 2:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
Is price closing higher or lower than something? Simple yet powerful question. ..MO

SignalBender
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Postby SignalBender » Wed May 26, 2010 2:34 am

dragon33 wrote:The daily+ extremen is also a strange puzzle for me. How can we know???


Taking precise measurements of the TCD through multiple time-frames is the first step to knowing where the high probability Low or High for the Bar is located. Predicting it as it happens is easier than trying to predict it prior to it happening, but having good, effective High/Low Radar, is not rocket science.

I do it with with uncanny precision on the Daily bar, by using Weekly and Monthly TCD variant indicators. I posted the first set of TCDs calculations in another thread under "SignalBender." Get someone you can trust to do a good job, to code the TCD Extensions (also posted but without reply) and you can learn how to observe where the high probability extremes will be for just about any Bar, with the exception of the tiny intervals, like the M1, M2, M3, M4, etc.

Once you know that, then you can look for synergies in in the 1-2-3 move you've been exposed to here in this forum. If you have the MQL coding experience and knowledge, you can even use the TCDs to front-run the Mouse and eat his cheese before he even knows that cheese is available to eat.

If I had the ability (I'm learning MQL each day - a slow process) to code my WizeCrack Charts (a spoof on the old WizeTrade stuff) on top of an MT4 chart, then seeing the whole the market unfold to its Highest High and Lowest Low, becomes child's play.

Dig into the TCDs a little bit deeper and see if you can't catch a Mouse in the act of stealing cheese. As far as the Mouse Trap is concerned, now that is another thread for another day, LOL! :)

"Bend" the signal to your will!

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bredin
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Postby bredin » Wed May 26, 2010 3:56 am

johny wrote:Yeah, daily+ low is just for the current day.

Daily+ extremes: Daily high/low, weekly high/low, Monthly high/low, Yearly high/low.

Following is a post from Mighty One. Kind of related to daily+ extremes (except entry/exit stuff):

Best Regards,
Johny

-------------------------------------

It is so easy that I am tempted to drink twice as much beer...

Risk 1% of high water mark ( if you have less than $1,000 then $1,000 is your high water mark).

20 pips = 1%

Wait for a daily or greater new high/low

When price retraces 5 or more pips click the button with a 20 pip SL.

If it is just single day new highs N' lows then I'd target 3-5%

If it is multi day new highs N' lows then I'd target 5%+

Weekly new highs N' lows I'd target 12-20%

Monthly new highs N' lows I'd target ~30-40%

Yearly new highs N' lows I'd target ~75-130%

There is only 1 highest and 1 lowest price with a bunch of gyrations in between no matter which time frame candle you are looking at.
As TRO says, price eventually exhausts its self and moves in your direction.
The duration that you hold for is based on the time period you feel like trading.
Eventually you will more than make up your losses if you TRY to hold for 80 pips or more.


"...how do you know when price has hit a new daily high/low? It is easy to see in historical data but not easy to determine real time. If price starts going down starting a midnight and keeps going, technically every new candle is a new daily low."

TRO2009_MPMM_PIPCHANGE_HL

If you missed the yearly highest then you would favor monthly highs over monthly lows.
If you missed the monthly highest then you would favor daily highs over daily lows.
If you missed the daily highest then you would favor 4hr highs over 4hr lows.

If you believe that the lows have reached a technically significant level then you could reverse this bias.

That said...

I pretty much just look at the Daily, Weekly, Monthly, & Yearly chart and say to myself:

1. This is my plan for accomplishing my short term goals
2. This is my plan for accomplishing any longer term goals
3. These are areas that I want to watch and see how price reacts because I may be interested in taking this chart back in the opposite direction.

It is just a lot of guessing mixed with a lot of doing...

-------------------------


It seems to me (ive been wrong before. A lot) that you can look for MZ/ZL as places where you are likely to get a D1+ extreme. On a 5 Pip retracement that gives another 15 pips of "not being the extreme" to play with in the reversal zone.
Sometimes you get the bus, sometimes the bus gets you, but the targets are large enough to offset the likelihood of being wrong.

Missed the EJ low extreme cos I was sleeping and didnt have the balls to place a limit order where I thought it would turn, but still grabbed some pips off a H4 ZL that price retraced to.... and was the d1 extreme so far today, had some other business to attend to and dumped the trade at +17 or so. Still it looks like im getting the hang of this way of trading.

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Wed May 26, 2010 4:33 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:
es/pip wrote:yeah i see that

i thought he was basing the "extreme" off a previous daily candle.

the one thing i am still not sure about on all of this.

how do you know that the daily low is going to be the daily low. It is only the daily low one time.

i know you are going to say, " i don't, and momentum"

i just seem to have an issue when i think it is the low and then it ends up not being the low.

:?


You know it IS the daily low NOW, but...

ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!

You have to trade what you see and what you know.

You know the lowest price of the day SO FAR. That IS the daily low unless price makes a new daily low.

Sooner or later the daily low NOW WILL BE THE DAILY LOW after the day ends..



I can only agree with TRO and ask the rest of you to find a different thread...yes, the rest of you as in all of you :lol:

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Postby franck » Wed May 26, 2010 8:39 am

MightyOne wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:
es/pip wrote:yeah i see that

i thought he was basing the "extreme" off a previous daily candle.

the one thing i am still not sure about on all of this.

how do you know that the daily low is going to be the daily low. It is only the daily low one time.

i know you are going to say, " i don't, and momentum"

i just seem to have an issue when i think it is the low and then it ends up not being the low.

:?


You know it IS the daily low NOW, but...

ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!

You have to trade what you see and what you know.

You know the lowest price of the day SO FAR. That IS the daily low unless price makes a new daily low.

Sooner or later the daily low NOW WILL BE THE DAILY LOW after the day ends..



I can only agree with TRO and ask the rest of you to find a different thread...yes, the rest of you as in all of you :lol:



For the simple mind.

Analysis A says probability of D1 low = 50%
Analysis B says probability of D1 low = 70%
Analysis C says probability of D1 low = 90%

Am i going to trade any different? No!
Am i going to hold till D1 close? but it is 90%!!
Does any thinking or any analysis is going to make a big different? Anything with 100%? No!
The next moment, you know the price is making new D1 high!

i ask - what is the price doing NOW? All price starts from M1. Extreme, close below then above -> is very near the beginning and it starts from a timeframe. A closed against the extreme at lower timeframe maybe the only risk to take vs a closed in profit at higher timeframe.

IN ORDER TO WIN AT TRADING, YOU HAVE TO BE PREPARED TO LOSE ! "TRO's new tag!"
* anyOne can be prOfitable tradING ANY line. see it?

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Postby prochargedmopar » Fri May 28, 2010 1:34 pm

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri May 28, 2010 6:35 pm

"I can only agree with TRO and ask the rest of you to find a different thread...yes, the rest of you as in all of you :lol:"- MightyOne

Please respect MightyOne's wishes. He gives a lot and asks for very little in return.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Postby newark18 » Sat May 29, 2010 12:49 am

MO, do you recommend following this method regardless of momo? For instance, there is a bullish momo candle and I see a bearish blind mouse opportunity, should I consider this a scalping opportunity or hold until another blind mouse? I was up 180ish pips on 2Us but it retraced a lot. I exited because I was worried that what I rode was merely a retracement of a bullish momo candle.

Last edited by newark18 on Sat May 29, 2010 3:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby mob » Sat May 29, 2010 1:42 am

This is my first post (real) post here - apologies if I am wordy.....

First of all I would like to thank TRO for his excellent coding and trading insights that got me started to get my feet wet with Forex.... I initially had a lot of problems to understand anything as I started reading his concepts with rat trade rev 9 and then 8..... As I did not get "it" and didn't want to be a Yaley, I spent the last three months to read (and then re-read) all the major threads on this excellent forum..... I copy / pasted all post / charts I found important into (meanwhile) huge word documents which I refer to regularly. It took me a very long time to see (think ?neural adaptation issues) but I am very slowly getting there?..

Next I would like to thank MO for his generous sharing of "next level" concepts... though I realize that I am still months away of understanding the intricacies of his imparted knowledge & experience.... but then again, I am in this for the longer term....

I also would like to thank es/pip, dragon33, prochargemopar and all the others too numerous to mention here that share their knowledge and daily experiences here - this is certainly one of the most generous and genuine places on the internet!

I normally trade Asian Session, UK & US opening, G/J, G/U and E/U (depending on volatility), using either "my" system as per attached image (a dumb-down version of MO's CC layout) or the "no indicator, ZL only" system championed by es/pip and dragon (thanks again for spoon feeding me!). I normally manage 100+ pips a day (demo!!) but managed to blow out one demo account (swore to myself that this wouldn't happen again). Main issue for time being for me is to recognize / handle fast breakouts against any present holding (and those are very frequent in the last 3-4 weeks)....... Anyways:

MO:
Based on yesterday's action on G/J I finally decided to leave my lurker corner and ask for your guidance on two questions:

1. First Sem3 came about yesterday 02:30 EST. Despite sitting in front of the screen, I am never able to immediately enter when Sem appears. For sake of argument, let's say I entered within 20 pips below that Sem3 (abt 133.210). Next Sem3 appeared 04:45 at 133.220.

I can not get a handle on S/L (I either have to set huge S/Ls (I usually work with less than 15 pips) or get stopped out 3-4 times with a total drawdown up to 60 pips) How do you suggest I (we) handle the drawdown, which is significant in this scenario?

I did end up riding it down for 150+ pips though ? so roughly 90 net

2. How to you decide starting point of custom candle? I usually place start at 2nd last Sem3 with 3 periods on M15. Does it matter where start of CC is placed as long as it is placed significantly away in tf used?

Again, thanks to all of you for sharing!

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