Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

User avatar
prochargedmopar
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5545
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 6:07 am
Reputation: 8
Location: Granbury, TX
Gender: Male
Contact:

Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby prochargedmopar » Wed Oct 12, 2016 1:57 am

v8power wrote:
aliassmith wrote:
dchappy wrote:Hi Alias , a couple questions ,if you don't mind ....you have the atr on your charts, how important do you consider it for your entries & exits ?. Also , have you had any difficulty exiting large positions (20 + ) lots with 1 order . For me ,orders that large seem to cover in pieces ,(5 or less ) at a time .(Maybe it's my broker , or that I'm using market orders ? ) Thx


The atr isn't a big deal. Quick glance to make sure price has been moving enough.

All i can say is big orders take more slippage in relationship to market speed and volume. I've had big orders go all at once and others slip a bunch.


This is one of the reasons for the change in my trading and now entering off of multiple trade entries. It allows me to better control my exits by being able to take profits off when I want/need to or at optimal times. Things like what pair, time of day, actual day and other factors can effect it.

I would love to discuss this topic and more with regarding to size. I have to admit for all the talk about the size of the forex market (trillions) the fact that such small order sizes can slip so much amazes me. I would have thought trading 1,0000 lots at a time would be no problem (its only 10,000 a pip which is nothing compared to trillions). Yes I know it does have a lot to do with brokers and all US brokers suck.

Question Aliass. Have you noticed a decline in overall trade execution from when you were big pippin on MBT to now. I would love to be able to scalp with 50 lot sizes, but the potential slippages puts me off. Also who is your current large account with?

I was thinking about opening a very large account with a US broker and see how I get treated. Does it make a difference when your account is lets say 10 million compared to 1 million? I really want to push the size up this year and take it to the next level.


Not 100% sure about this but ICT says its only 1mil, some brokers now require up to 5 mil to trade direct.
There is no margin given but he said he has up to 5 min to tell them if he accepts their fill price or not.
He's like,
Try that with fxcm. lol
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

v8power
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 959
Joined: Fri Oct 17, 2008 8:20 pm
Reputation: 15
Gender: None specified

Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby v8power » Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:41 pm

prochargedmopar wrote:
v8power wrote:
aliassmith wrote:
The atr isn't a big deal. Quick glance to make sure price has been moving enough.

All i can say is big orders take more slippage in relationship to market speed and volume. I've had big orders go all at once and others slip a bunch.


This is one of the reasons for the change in my trading and now entering off of multiple trade entries. It allows me to better control my exits by being able to take profits off when I want/need to or at optimal times. Things like what pair, time of day, actual day and other factors can effect it.

I would love to discuss this topic and more with regarding to size. I have to admit for all the talk about the size of the forex market (trillions) the fact that such small order sizes can slip so much amazes me. I would have thought trading 1,0000 lots at a time would be no problem (its only 10,000 a pip which is nothing compared to trillions). Yes I know it does have a lot to do with brokers and all US brokers suck.

Question Aliass. Have you noticed a decline in overall trade execution from when you were big pippin on MBT to now. I would love to be able to scalp with 50 lot sizes, but the potential slippages puts me off. Also who is your current large account with?

I was thinking about opening a very large account with a US broker and see how I get treated. Does it make a difference when your account is lets say 10 million compared to 1 million? I really want to push the size up this year and take it to the next level.


Not 100% sure about this but ICT says its only 1mil, some brokers now require up to 5 mil to trade direct.
There is no margin given but he said he has up to 5 min to tell them if he accepts their fill price or not.
He's like,
Try that with fxcm. lol


I agree with some of that. Yea it changes when you play with big boy money. I would love to hear Sacrophage's thoughts or expierences on it (just for shits and giggles).

aliassmith
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1667
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:50 pm
Reputation: 21
Gender: Male

Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:14 pm

So messing around with Algos I am introduced to more statistical ideas/concepts. I am not a mathematician so if anyone out there is maybe you can help.

In a market where there is NO market bias and zero costs.

**Place a trade where the reward=risk.
**So I would think there is a 50/50 chance of either outcome.
**When the trade moves half way to the take profit the stop loss is moved to breakeven.
**The new situation has a 50/50 chance of hitting the take profit or breakeven.
**So 50% of the trades lose 1 unit.
**25% of the trades are breakeven.
**25% of the trades are win 1 unit.

I believe this ends up being a Profit Factor of less than 1, so moving the stoploss to breakeven works negatively. Then you consider costs and it is even worse.

If the stats are correct, I believe it proves MO's idea of not moving your SL.
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

aliassmith
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1667
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:50 pm
Reputation: 21
Gender: Male

Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Sun Nov 13, 2016 4:34 pm

Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

User avatar
MightyOne
rank: 5000+ posts
rank: 5000+ posts
Posts: 5250
Joined: Wed Dec 10, 2008 6:33 pm
Reputation: 46
Gender: Male

Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby MightyOne » Sun Nov 13, 2016 7:00 pm

aliassmith wrote:...
If the stats are correct, I believe it proves MO's idea of not moving your SL.


One should never move a stop without first adding or subtracting units.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

aliassmith
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1667
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:50 pm
Reputation: 21
Gender: Male

Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Tue Nov 15, 2016 1:32 am

MightyOne wrote:
aliassmith wrote:...
If the stats are correct, I believe it proves MO's idea of not moving your SL.


One should never move a stop without first adding or subtracting units.


My stats may be wrong. It could be:
33% win 1
33% win 0
33% loss 1

Moving your stop loss looks like it has more cost involved. It takes 3 trades to be even. If you don't move your stop loss it takes 2 trades to be even, so less cost with similar break even result.
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

Sacrophage
rank: 150+ posts
rank: 150+ posts
Posts: 150
Joined: Tue May 17, 2016 8:16 pm
Reputation: 10
Gender: None specified

Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby Sacrophage » Tue Nov 15, 2016 5:09 pm

Moving your SL is equivalent to taking a different trade. In order to move your SL intelligently, you need to know about the trade you're in, as well as the trade you're about to enter. Move your stop if and only if the resultant expected return is positive. This gets tricky the further out you go - the more times you move your stop - the more the resultant expected return is altered. However, there is hidden value there - how many people have run the numbers for price movement of +a-b+c-d+e...etc. TP10SL10 is 50:50 W:L over longer term, but given xyz leadup, it isn't 50:50.

**edit - exp return is without figuring spread - with normal spread on EUR (around 1.1 pts), TP10SL10 is 42%Win.

aliassmith
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1667
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:50 pm
Reputation: 21
Gender: Male

Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Thu Nov 17, 2016 8:55 pm

My algo cluster made 2% and I manually traded using my alerts EA and made 8% this week. I'll take off friday and give the algo cluster a chance. :D

I still believe that being able to automate as much of your idea as possible helps efficiency as a trader (return/your time). Even if I get an algo cluster to get about 10% a month using 2 hours of my time it would be 5%/hour. My manual trading is probably closer to 1% /hour.

Automation can also help with psychological issues, like taking a random trade because you have been watching the market for hours.

Using Automation is great!
If I want to trade H4 pinbars, I could make an EA alert that notifies me when one occures on the 20 charts that are being monitored. Maybe I am lookng for a pinbar that is on a x.xx00 level. Just about anything can be setup like that. Now I go about my business until I get a notification.

In the end the EA scans for the "right" conditions then the human brain analyses the situation and the trade if it looks good.

**** end of rambling
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

Sacrophage
rank: 150+ posts
rank: 150+ posts
Posts: 150
Joined: Tue May 17, 2016 8:16 pm
Reputation: 10
Gender: None specified

Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby Sacrophage » Fri Nov 18, 2016 4:12 pm

Hear! Hear!

aliassmith
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1667
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2009 9:50 pm
Reputation: 21
Gender: Male

Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Wed Nov 23, 2016 3:17 pm

aliassmith wrote:My algo cluster made 2% and I manually traded using my alerts EA and made 8% this week. I'll take off friday and give the algo cluster a chance.


Made a little miscalculation and traded more also. Ended up with 23% last week and 19% this week. It could of easily been 5% and I would of been fine with that.

Manual trading is killing algo trading so far, 5% for 2 months running. Minimum target of 150% a year for the algo. I still have faith it can be done.
Trade Your Way as Long as It Makes Money!

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “TheRumpledOne”