Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Thu Dec 31, 2020 5:44 pm

IgazI wrote:I was going over the pros and cons of a 1 + 2 + 1 combination and I think it might actually be usable after all:

The biggest con is that the 2 lot is going to increase the risk by 50% as we would move our stop no closer than the 1/2 ret;
it's still slightly less risk than starting with a 1.5 lot trade.

To double your space, and keep the risk the same, you would need to reduce from 3 to 1 or from 4 to 2.


The obvious advantages are:

1. smaller risk-box on the first add:
if a 12 pip RB becomes 4 then every pip above the ret is a 25% risk reduction.
2. 3/4 ret on the second add:
we want to pull the trigger a 3rd time but we also want to protect our space.
3. 33.3% more risk-space as you move from 4 lots to a 2 + 4 + 2 progression:
2/3 of the 4 lot RB will fund a 4 + 8 + 4 so starting over with 2 lots is a 4/3 RB.


As long as your timing on the first add is not horrible then I think you can get away with it most of the time.


1+1+2
1+2+1
1+1+1
2+1+1

They seem to all have pro/con based on situation. I believe it comes down to your market and what you are trained to execute well.
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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:02 pm

I was posting in Procharge's thread about how institutions mostly trade algorithms these days.
I don't believe there is and Overlord Algo that controls everything like ICT talks about.
I do believe that there are millions of algos out there programmed by humans and many are based on the process of trigged in to the trade and (ratio or triggered) out.

What I mean by that; a trade is entered at a level based on criteria and profit is took at various approximate mathematical ratios. I say approximate because of various spreads and slippage being a factor.

I previously posted a modified Fib tool on the MT4 platform. It shows Reward:Risk ratios. I primarily study the 1R, 1.5R, 2R, and 3R.
I take that tool and measure various hypothetical entries and stop-loss levels and see how far price moves. From this one can see where algos enter and exit trades. In the end you will find that algos will enter on breaks, fib levels, support/resistance, and liquidity pools among other ways. You will also see common move sizes such as .5R, 1R, 1.5R, 2R, etc.

Over the next few posts I will show some measures I just did as examples. I'm not suggesting this is a trading method. I am suggesting that you can gain an understanding of how the market actually moves and there is Rhyme and Reason.
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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:08 pm

Breakout of first M5 candle in US session went to 1.5R
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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:10 pm

Breakout of pre US session M5 candle for 1R
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:12 pm

Another single candle breakout for 2R plus
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:15 pm

another single candle breakout 1R to 1.5R the measure might be off a bit. Look left to see how it matches up with possible previous entry points algos may have took, such as single candle breakouts and opens.
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Thu Dec 31, 2020 7:48 pm

a single candle breakout short. Notice how .5R, 1R, 1.5R, and 2R are used as minor support/resistance levels.
Measuring the "triggers" and ratios then comparing it to previous opposite "triggers" spots is interesting.

Where are algos "triggering" entries?
What profit targets are they looking to achieve?
What other confluences match up with these points and why?
Are algos adding/liquidating at various point in a position for longer moves?
How can you not compete against the predominate algo and work with it?
Are your entries a waste, Could you have waited for a better price or cost averaged into it?

Over time you will be able to see how/why certain candle patterns workout.
You will also see how many of them are all the same idea in disguise.

Looking at the market in ratios will also include the various volatility levels.
Try it on blank charts and try it on methods you use, it is "eye opening".
In the end math is still math and you can't make money over time without certain variables lining up.
Money Management along with average win rate, average profit, average loss, profit factor, win streaks, and losing streaks.
Knowing that our math has to work out, we assume that the algos have to have their math work out. Their math has to work out over thousands/millions of trials. They can't hide what they are doing because it is on the chart. (unless there is some criminal activity of course)

This is my late Christmas present to the Kreslik community. Hopefully it gives you insight and wisdom for years to come.
I'm sure I'll post more random charts in the near future.
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:59 pm

Happy New Year
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby LeMercenaire » Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:01 am

aliassmith wrote:Happy New Year


And to you.

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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby forexjpn » Sat Jan 02, 2021 12:24 pm

Happy New Year guys!

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