2009.11.05 DRAIN THE BANKS - REV 9

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Nov 08, 2009 7:41 pm

It's not the range that this exploits, it's the wick size.

If you look at the frequency distribution, you'll see the wicks are larger than 20 pips over 66% of the time. Yes, you would want to run the frequency distribution for each pair that you trade to find the "cut off" number of pips.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Postby tortexal » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:34 pm

jonisonvespa wrote:
is that 20 pip the same with all pairs?? surley that 20 pip would be constantly changing and different for all pairs??


the 66% will fluctuate depending on the pair you are trading. tro's work indicated 66% on GBP, getting >=20 is a higher percentage on the euro and on crude. you probably should run your own stats on whatever you are trading to figure out the stats. ie, if i screw up an entry and come in at 20 ticks off the h/l what are my chances of a 40 tick total move etc

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Postby jonisonvespa » Sun Nov 08, 2009 8:48 pm

thanks tro

i wll have to understand first how tro is exploring the wick figure first, i will be some time
yes will be interesting to work out each pair, my gut feeling all around 20 pip.

thanks for the challange

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:19 pm

You only need to trade ONE PAIR.

If you make 20 pips a day, with proper position sizing, that's a 4% return on your portfolio.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby jonisonvespa » Sun Nov 08, 2009 9:58 pm

hi tro

do you calculate the average candal size bottom/top wick and body, say over 25 days?

the extreems are the wicks?, most of the time price is within the body?

d1 top wick count usd/chf

10-19 pips 31%
20-29 pips 19.2
30-39 pips 19%
40-49 pips 15%

so top wick was 84% of the time 10 to 49 pips.

ive hit a brick wall, please help my brain cell cant cope

yes i trade eu, thanks tro

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Postby loup » Mon Nov 09, 2009 9:11 am

Hello,

What do the arrows with label BREAK and StopVol dots signify?

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Postby gangsta1 » Mon Nov 09, 2009 11:17 am

TRO, is there an alert indicator to let us know when price is within 20 pips of the daily high/low of selected pairs? So we only need one pair open.

Also what is your opinion on this strategy for DTB like a RAT:

Enter 20pips from daily high/low: If you get stopped for -10
Enter 20pips again from daily high/low: If you get stopped for -10 again
Enter 20pips again from daily high/low: Target +40pips to make up for loses and gain 20 extra pips.

From my observations thus far, the m15 chart seems to filter out some bad trades that would be triggered on the m5.

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Nov 09, 2009 2:29 pm

jonisonvespa wrote:hi tro

do you calculate the average candal size bottom/top wick and body, say over 25 days?

the extreems are the wicks?, most of the time price is within the body?

d1 top wick count usd/chf

10-19 pips 31%
20-29 pips 19.2
30-39 pips 19%
40-49 pips 15%

so top wick was 84% of the time 10 to 49 pips.

ive hit a brick wall, please help my brain cell cant cope

yes i trade eu, thanks tro


I think the examples used 100 days.

Wick is High - Candle Top

Tail (bottom wick) is Candle Bottom - Low

Yes, if you add those up, you get 84%
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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jonisonvespa
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Postby jonisonvespa » Mon Nov 09, 2009 6:43 pm

hi tro
i just cant get my head round....the wicks are larger than 20 pips over 66% of the time.
how is this figure exploited? how does this relate to the rat?

thanks for taking the time

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Postby Footrot » Mon Nov 09, 2009 9:22 pm

Hi Tro,
Thanks for all your efforts to help us trade well. I've been fascinated to read up on VSA. Could you help us understand your "Better Volume" indicator : what does the climax high, neutral, low, high,climax low, climax churn indicate to us?
Thanks again
Footrot

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