2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Sun Oct 25, 2009 11:28 am

celtics2 wrote:So what is considered a daily goal? If I'm trading trading 20k's?? I know what I'm making but what is a decent goal?


Attached is a conservative goal sheet:
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MO-GOAL SHEET.txt
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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Oct 25, 2009 4:19 pm

pp2 wrote:THERE IS NOTHING TO FIGURE OUT!!

The rules are simple.

DO NOT THINK... EXECUTE!!

If price touches the high (low) of the green (red) candle, you enter long (short).


Is this the RAT scalp and for the daily 20 from the high or low?

If not, then we take every signal given from the tro 2009 rat plot line then #-o


If you WAIT FOR OPPORTUNITY and then start trading the reversals, you should be done trading in 1 - 4 trades on most days.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Patch
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Postby Patch » Sun Oct 25, 2009 4:30 pm

TRO

Wondering about your comment above that just came up before I go out and cut the grass.

"If you WAIT FOR OPPORTUNITY and then start trading the reversals, you should be done trading in 1 - 4 trades on most days."

Does this mean or imply that the statistics or odds of trading Green or Red Rat has a 1:4 or 25% success ratio?

Patch
In VA
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Oct 25, 2009 4:37 pm

NO.

Look at a chart.

Do you should SEE the rat reversal trades?

How many trades did it take to make 2%?

10 pips should be a 2% return on your account with proper position size.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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jackm1
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RAT Plot vs RAT reversal

Postby jackm1 » Sun Oct 25, 2009 4:55 pm

Avery,

Which one has a higher probability to win, RAT plot or RAT Reversal.
Which one do you play the most...........

Thanks.

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Postby Patch » Sun Oct 25, 2009 4:57 pm

TRO

What is the significance of the "1 - 4 trades on most days" based on and what does it tell me?

Thanks

Patch
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Oct 25, 2009 5:00 pm

The RAT PLOT indicator indicates a RAT REVERSAL.

You traders need to spend some time in front of the charts LOOKING AT THEM. YOU MUST LEARN TO SEE.

You are asking YALE STUDENT questions.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby jackm1 » Sun Oct 25, 2009 5:31 pm

LOL......."You are asking YALE STUDENT questions.".....
Ok. I got it. Will do.
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Postby snscott » Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:16 pm

The arrows appear on RAT_PLOT when the PREVIOUS two candles are configured for a RAT REVERSAL. The arrow shows which way the reversal is "statisically" likely to continue heading (for a short time at least).

The arrows you see on bars in the past are simply a "historical record" of those previous rat reversal signals and mean NOTHING in terms of what is going on with the current candle / reversal setup.

So, to try to explain it even more clearly with an example:

With RAT_PLOT, if the candle 2 bars ago was a GREEN candle, and the previous candle was RED, you are now waiting for the RAT REVERSAL SIGNAL to complete by having the price of the current candle move LOWER than the LOW of that previous RED candle. RAT_PLOT, if set to SHOW THE LINE, will highlight the low of that previous red candle, which is the "trigger point" that says: "This looks like a good RED RAT REVERSAL". RAT_PLOT will also draw a RED arrow at the LOW of the current candle indicating that it is a RED RAT REVERSAL that is currently "in play"

Once time moves on and a new candle forms, the RED arrow that formed on the "here is comes" candle will remain there as simply a historical record.

Does that help anyone?

And, obviously, TRO, correct me if I am wrong here.

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Postby snscott » Sun Oct 25, 2009 7:44 pm

You know, the Yale Rat story is interesting, but I think it is important to note that the Rat did not really just choose a random direction to turn.

The setup for the experiments states that the "random" food placement was weighted to put food to the left 60% of the time, so it was not purely a case of "always turning left" made the rat win more than the students in a PURELY RANDOM situation. It was "random", but rigged such that the food was slightly more likely to appear on the left. And it was that small fact that "allowed" the rat to beat the students.

The article even says that the Rat LEARNED that he had a better chance of getting food if he went to the left. So, it was not a case of the rat just willy-nilly deciding he was a "left-turning" rat at birth.

Meanwhile, the HUMANS might have also realized (at some level) that food came up on the left slightly more often - which is why they tried to establish some kind of pattern or rules to follow (like 2 rights are followed by 3 lefts - or whatever).

How is that any different from us humans establishing "rules" to govern how we trade the random market that say, for example, a green candle, followed by a red candle, followed by another red candle that breaks lower than the low of the previous red candle is a "valid signal" that the RED Rats are going to get fed?

Isn't the "Rat Reversal" system (or any system) still exactly the same human-thought-process that made the Yale students "lose" against the rats?

Now, some might say that the "rat reversal" rules are using a candle configuration to establish which direction has that "60% edge" over the other - but in actuality, the market is still RANDOM, so aren't you're still using a YALE Brain when you think that the price action on the previous two candles plus the current candle gives you an "edge"?

Either the market is truly random and therefore no amount of number crunching on statistics will really help, or it isn't random and has some level of order or rationality and therefore "predictability" to it.

You have to decide which you believe, I suppose.

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