2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Sun Oct 18, 2009 5:58 pm

foreman01 wrote:
Patch wrote:Does it make sense to be a Red Rat because the market falls much faster, and farther over a shorter period of time than a market rising?


Might be true for stocks, but forex pairs are relative. If EUR/USD was instead called the USD/EUR pair, then it would go in reverse -- so what does it mean to fall or rise? You buy one EUR you sell the USD at the exact same time - that's what always happens.


As to the idea of only playing one direction. The DTB rat - as I recall - was based a statistical study that said "20 pips from the high, OR LOW" -- both directions were equally valid.

I think on a more generic level one could be a rat by always playing their "system." One often hears pros say "learn one system and stick with it." So in this sense the system could be stated as: be a red rat when 20 pips from the high; and be a green rat when 20 pips from the low.

I feel pretty confident that if this forums experienced traders were to trade both red rats and green rats, that they would still have the same percentage of successes.

LMAO (at myself for this next statement) ON THE OTHER HAND -- it may be that by only playing one direction on one pair that the price action would be different for a red rat than a green rat and thus one would become better at recognizing a successful trade (especially the price action for exiting - because the entrance rules are pretty much ground in stone).


You would only benefit from switching rats if you could tell that price was going to make a strong trending move.

Over one period of time there will be more green than red bars and over another period there will be more red bars than green.

There may even be near equal distribution of red and green bars :shock:

Upon entering into the market you cannot know if price will move 11 or 1,100 pips nor can you tell for sure the beginning of a move from its end.

What you can know are the statistics of individual bars or how the current bar usually interacts with its neighbor(s).

Pick one color and stick to it and maybe later, when you are not subject to an alarm clock, you can attempt to switch just before a strong trending move should you have the experience to do so.

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oldmangeezer
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Weekly Chart Inidcators

Postby oldmangeezer » Sun Oct 18, 2009 7:14 pm

Hi TRO,

What are the names of the indicators you are using on your EUR/JPY chart?

Interesting you price stopped at about 10 pips difference. FXDD has price at 135.34.

Thanks!!

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snscott
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Postby snscott » Sun Oct 18, 2009 7:50 pm

MightyOne wrote:What you can know are the statistics of individual bars or how the current bar usually interacts with its neighbor(s).

Pick one color and stick to it and maybe later, when you are not subject to an alarm clock, you can attempt to switch just before a strong trending move should you have the experience to do so.


MO, I really like these chart examples where you toggled the colors to highlight only A SPECIFIC RAT's colored bars. :smt023

That simple tweak really makes them stand out especially for us feeble, old, near-sighted farts for sure! :D

A relatively simple nuance, but also a Great Idea.

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Postby frang0nve » Sun Oct 18, 2009 8:24 pm

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Maybe A Reason Why

Postby oldmangeezer » Sun Oct 18, 2009 9:48 pm

Maybe a reason why we shouldn't keep our positions open over the weekend??

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Patch
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Postby Patch » Mon Oct 19, 2009 12:30 am

oldmangeezer

One old geezer to another, wondering if you were in the market at the close on Friday. Ever since 2009.09.11 I've decided not to ever be in the market over a weekend close. Also I like the idea of being out of the market while I sleep at night. What was this, about a 70 pip drop, it could be a lot worse. Why take the weekend risk?

If I knew how to code MT4 and was coding an auto trade EA, I could have it close all contracts each evening, and each Friday at the market close. Does this make sense?

Patch
In VA
Trading Forex In the Post 9/11 World
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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Not Me

Postby oldmangeezer » Mon Oct 19, 2009 12:42 am

I would never leave a trade go on over a weekend. Never know what will happen when the market closes from Friday 5 PM New York time to Sunday eve. I see the window closed on the GBP USD.

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Patch
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Postby Patch » Mon Oct 19, 2009 1:02 am

oldmangeezer

So just to tell the end of the story as it occurred over the past three hours, plus or minus, just look at the attached M1 chart below. Tonight the gap was filled in short order. When I saw the gap this afternoon, I asked myself, I wonder if the gap will be filled. If I had been long in the market at the Friday closed, I could have closed my position immediately or stayed in. I watched the market for the first 20-25 minutes and after 7 to 10 minutes decided it would be best to stay in for a while. The risk is that the market could also continue to plummet. The market opened on a long M1 candle, this helped the cause to "stay in".

As a BuyZone kind of guy, I also can't help but notice the short tails and many zero tails on the blue (sorry should be green) candles and the same thing with regards to the wicks on the red rat side. Looks like a lot of MO's momentum around this evening.

Trading is a gutsy business at times, in truth it takes guts to step up to begin with and stick it out.

Patch
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Attachments
2009.10.18-the rest of the story.jpg
2009.10.18-the rest of the story.jpg (171.07 KiB) Viewed 2270 times
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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Postby MightyOne » Mon Oct 19, 2009 4:26 am

What better way to keep you trading in one direction than to not have any short triggers?

I cut the TRO_HL in half and spent some time trying to "Sweet Spot" the indi before I just gave up and used fibo :lol: :lol: :lol:

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Mon Oct 19, 2009 8:10 am

snscott wrote:
MightyOne wrote:What you can know are the statistics of individual bars or how the current bar usually interacts with its neighbor(s).

Pick one color and stick to it and maybe later, when you are not subject to an alarm clock, you can attempt to switch just before a strong trending move should you have the experience to do so.


MO, I really like these chart examples where you toggled the colors to highlight only A SPECIFIC RAT's colored bars. :smt023

That simple tweak really makes them stand out especially for us feeble, old, near-sighted farts for sure! :D

A relatively simple nuance, but also a Great Idea.


Thanks snscott :)

I have nothing to do aside from decorating my charts while I wait for trade :lol:

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