2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:55 pm

In my email today:

And how do we know when it's time to buy?

It's called HOLP. That is, a break above the High of the Low Period on a weekly chart. As the momentum continues lower and the stock edges lower each week, each week it makes a new "low bar." At some point, the blood bath will stop, the sellers will be exhausted, and there will be room for buyers to step in and move this stock higher. The signal that this has started to occur is a break above the high of that low weekly bar. For example, the currently weekly bar low is 75.79, and the high of this bar is 88.10. Therefore, I'm not interested in buying this stock until it can close above 88.10.

Sounds like a RAT REVERSAL to me!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Nov 21, 2011 3:09 pm

Image


"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

========================= ====================

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

=============================================
GREEN RAT REVERSAL TRADE

1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

2) red candle closes

3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

4) enter long at the green candle's high price

5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

6) Take whatever profit you can.

7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.


"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."

============================================

WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

The list is almost endless.

As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:31 pm

Image

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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paupau
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Postby paupau » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:22 am

nickohorny wrote:earlier trades, this time to go with both H1 and W1 bias only



then the dreaded stopout! Grrr damn you SL! :x



Come on rat pick up that delicious cheese for once!


Hi Nick, what is that indicator name where it can show the H1 candle in the background?

pawelklos
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Postby pawelklos » Tue Nov 22, 2011 11:23 am

paupau wrote:
nickohorny wrote:earlier trades, this time to go with both H1 and W1 bias only



then the dreaded stopout! Grrr damn you SL! :x



Come on rat pick up that delicious cheese for once!


Hi Nick, what is that indicator name where it can show the H1 candle in the background?



Indicator name: Custom Candle

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Nov 22, 2011 3:18 pm

Image

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

THINK ABOUT IT!!


<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

2) The "within 20 pips of the daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Nov 22, 2011 10:34 pm

Image

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Nov 23, 2011 1:24 pm

Image

=============================================

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Nov 23, 2011 10:08 pm

Image

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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paupau
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Postby paupau » Thu Nov 24, 2011 6:13 am

pawelklos wrote:
paupau wrote:
nickohorny wrote:earlier trades, this time to go with both H1 and W1 bias only



then the dreaded stopout! Grrr damn you SL! :x



Come on rat pick up that delicious cheese for once!


Hi Nick, what is that indicator name where it can show the H1 candle in the background?



Indicator name: Custom Candle


Thanks pawelklos

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