2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Mar 15, 2011 1:42 pm

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"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

========================= ====================

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

=============================================

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY

============================================

WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?

Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.

One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"

Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!

We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?

We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?

We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?

We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?

The list is almost endless.

As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.

Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:37 pm

Image

You can clearly see that price is above the daily low by 20 or more pips.

=============================================

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

=============================================

"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:38 pm

Image

You can clearly see that price is above the daily low by 20 or more pips.

=============================================

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

=============================================

"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Mar 15, 2011 7:44 pm

Image

You can clearly see that price is above the daily low by 20 or more pips.

=============================================

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

=============================================

"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

ewcraigs
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Stop

Postby ewcraigs » Wed Mar 16, 2011 4:09 am

I understand the initial stop loss, but how do you trail? Do you scale out when you hit so many pips & let the others run, the tighten up on that eventually? If so, how much?

Thanks

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Mar 16, 2011 12:51 pm

Exits are done according to my EXIT PLAY BOOK.


================================================================

FOREX EXIT PLAY BOOK

PLAN "A"
+PIPS
20 WAIT
19 WAIT
18 WAIT
17 WAIT
16 SET STOP: ENTRY + 10
15 WAIT
14 WAIT
13 WAIT
12 WAIT
11 WAIT
10 SET STOP: ENTRY + 5
9 WAIT
8 WAIT
7 WAIT
6 WAIT
5 SET STOP: ENTRY + 3
4 WAIT
3 WAIT
2 WAIT
1 WAIT
0 ENTRY: STOP LOSS - 10


USE STOP MARKET


================================================================

You also need PLAN "B" (for scaling out, trailing stops) and possibly PLAN "C" (for other market conditions).

You must develop your own EXIT PLAY BOOK.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Mar 16, 2011 1:07 pm

Image

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.

THINK ABOUT IT!!


<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.

STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)

POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.

2) The "within 20 pips of the daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.

<-------------------------------------------------------------------->

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Mar 16, 2011 1:57 pm

Image


=============================================

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

=============================================

"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."

=============================================

PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

ewcraigs
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Postby ewcraigs » Wed Mar 16, 2011 3:51 pm

RE: Plan B

Plan A looks like it IS using trailing stops, right? Can you give an example of how you might scale out?

Thanks

TheRumpledOne wrote:Exits are done according to my EXIT PLAY BOOK.


================================================================

FOREX EXIT PLAY BOOK

PLAN "A"
+PIPS
20 WAIT
19 WAIT
18 WAIT
17 WAIT
16 SET STOP: ENTRY + 10
15 WAIT
14 WAIT
13 WAIT
12 WAIT
11 WAIT
10 SET STOP: ENTRY + 5
9 WAIT
8 WAIT
7 WAIT
6 WAIT
5 SET STOP: ENTRY + 3
4 WAIT
3 WAIT
2 WAIT
1 WAIT
0 ENTRY: STOP LOSS - 10


USE STOP MARKET


================================================================

You also need PLAN "B" (for scaling out, trailing stops) and possibly PLAN "C" (for other market conditions).

You must develop your own EXIT PLAY BOOK.

ewcraigs
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Commissions

Postby ewcraigs » Wed Mar 16, 2011 4:36 pm

TRO,

I've been paper trading this method. Do you find commissions eat you up sometimes?

Thanks

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