2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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tfg
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Re: How do you know when the daily high or low has been reac

Postby tfg » Fri Feb 11, 2011 2:31 pm

...because the RAT stats (on which the RAT edge is based) was calculated using the historical daily high/low (ie. after the trading day is complete.), not the current daily high/low at a time.

If the current high/low (within the 20 pips )on which you entered a RAT trade at a time subsequently turns out to be the daily high/low after the trading day close, obviously the RAT edge exists and supported by the RAT stats.

However, if the current high/low (within the 20 pips )on which you entered a RAT trade at a time subsequently is superseded by a new daily high/low, clearly the trade was not entered (within 20 pips) of the true daily high/low on which RAT stats/edge was calculated. Therefore, by definition, there is no RAT edge or not yet proven an edge.

Although a trade may always have a chance not to turn out as a loser in the absence of an edge, this is not a RAT trade to the definition that I understand?

Avery, I am just trying to clarify my own mind. I don't understand why the RAT trade also work for me on the current high/low that don't become the daily/low despite RAT stats was not calculated on the currently high/low at a time. for me. Am I missing something?




TheRumpledOne wrote:
tfg wrote:....

If after taking the trades within the current high/low, the price then makes a new high/low. This immediately put your trades out of the RAT edges identified by the stats and the trade will statistically likely (not always if you are lucky) become a loser.


What makes you think this puts the trade out of the RAT edges?

The trade does not have to become a loser.

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tradervic1963
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Postby tradervic1963 » Fri Feb 11, 2011 2:47 pm

So really, since we do not know what the real high or low will be (or was) until the end of the day, all we can do is take the current high or low, assume that this will be the actual high or low for the day, wait for price to reverse, and then jump into the trade with a ten pip stop loss. Its that easy, but statistically speaking will beat the Yale student in the long run?

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Postby tradervic1963 » Fri Feb 11, 2011 4:13 pm

Thanks Tokyo Drifter! and thank you TRO, I think I get it now. Let the forward testing begin...

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TheRumpledOne
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Re: How do you know when the daily high or low has been reac

Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Feb 11, 2011 6:52 pm

tfg wrote:...because the RAT stats (on which the RAT edge is based) was calculated using the historical daily high/low (ie. after the trading day is complete.), not the current daily high/low at a time.

If the current high/low (within the 20 pips )on which you entered a RAT trade at a time subsequently turns out to be the daily high/low after the trading day close, obviously the RAT edge exists and supported by the RAT stats.

However, if the current high/low (within the 20 pips )on which you entered a RAT trade at a time subsequently is superseded by a new daily high/low, clearly the trade was not entered (within 20 pips) of the true daily high/low on which RAT stats/edge was calculated. Therefore, by definition, there is no RAT edge or not yet proven an edge.

Although a trade may always have a chance not to turn out as a loser in the absence of an edge, this is not a RAT trade to the definition that I understand?

Avery, I am just trying to clarify my own mind. I don't understand why the RAT trade also work for me on the current high/low that don't become the daily/low despite RAT stats was not calculated on the currently high/low at a time. for me. Am I missing something?




TheRumpledOne wrote:
tfg wrote:....

If after taking the trades within the current high/low, the price then makes a new high/low. This immediately put your trades out of the RAT edges identified by the stats and the trade will statistically likely (not always if you are lucky) become a loser.


What makes you think this puts the trade out of the RAT edges?

The trade does not have to become a loser.



You are OVER THINKING THIS... Perhaps, you are YALE MATERIAL!

http://admissions.yale.edu/freshman-application-process
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

tfg
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Re: How do you know when the daily high or low has been reac

Postby tfg » Fri Feb 11, 2011 8:11 pm

I rest my case and will not bring this up again.

It seems the point that I made here is of no existing RAT traders' concern and the answer to my question is simply "over-thinking" as far as RAT trading goes.

Thanks.

TheRumpledOne wrote:
tfg wrote:...because the RAT stats (on which the RAT edge is based) was calculated using the historical daily high/low (ie. after the trading day is complete.), not the current daily high/low at a time.

If the current high/low (within the 20 pips )on which you entered a RAT trade at a time subsequently turns out to be the daily high/low after the trading day close, obviously the RAT edge exists and supported by the RAT stats.

However, if the current high/low (within the 20 pips )on which you entered a RAT trade at a time subsequently is superseded by a new daily high/low, clearly the trade was not entered (within 20 pips) of the true daily high/low on which RAT stats/edge was calculated. Therefore, by definition, there is no RAT edge or not yet proven an edge.

Although a trade may always have a chance not to turn out as a loser in the absence of an edge, this is not a RAT trade to the definition that I understand?

Avery, I am just trying to clarify my own mind. I don't understand why the RAT trade also work for me on the current high/low that don't become the daily/low despite RAT stats was not calculated on the currently high/low at a time. for me. Am I missing something?




TheRumpledOne wrote:
tfg wrote:....

If after taking the trades within the current high/low, the price then makes a new high/low. This immediately put your trades out of the RAT edges identified by the stats and the trade will statistically likely (not always if you are lucky) become a loser.


What makes you think this puts the trade out of the RAT edges?

The trade does not have to become a loser.



You are OVER THINKING THIS... Perhaps, you are YALE MATERIAL!

http://admissions.yale.edu/freshman-application-process

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Postby tmanbone » Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:41 pm

Image

Beware the zone moves. Don't forget your exit playbook.
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"

T

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Feb 13, 2011 7:39 am

tmanbone:

Nice trading!

Perhaps you can share your exit play book so others may learn.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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tmanbone
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TRO's Exit Playbook

Postby tmanbone » Sun Feb 13, 2011 2:31 pm

TRO's Exit Playbook

AT +5 pips, I will be ready to bail at +3 if price pulls back. (Incorporating this one rule will turn your trading around.)

At +10 pips, I will enter a trailing stop of 4 or 5 pips.

At +15, I will cancel the trailing stop and enter a hard stop at +10.

Then I will move the hard stop up if price moves up.

At +25, I may move the hard stop up to +25 or to a price ending in 0 or 9.

Sometimes, I may exit 1/2 of my position at +20 to lock in a 1% gain.


I stole it, but I'm willing to share. LOL
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"



T

oktar
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Postby oktar » Sun Feb 13, 2011 5:45 pm

Hi,
I've been attracted by this method - the rules are very simple so it was easy to code it on mt4 and check if it is really working. I spent few hours and made an EA. The rules are:

- from 0:00am gmt start to capture High and Low bid price values for current day
- from 7:00am gmt start to trade
- trade within 20 pips of last captured high/low depending which side you choose
- sl 10 pips, TRO candles pattern for a reverse etc. (simple TRO's rules from this thread)
- stop to trade at 6:00pm gmt
- wait for a next day, at 0:00am gmt reset High/Low and start to capture for a new day

I've tested it on reliable live data 2010 on eurusd, 5m. I've tried many different TP's (5-50pip), hours of trading etc. It's far away from 60% hitrate. On risk:reward 1:1 (10p:10p) it has actually about 35% hitrate. It is loosing money in every damn combination. So I'm sceptical about this system and I have a conclusion but first I'd like to know what is your exit blueprint TRO?

tradervic1963
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Postby tradervic1963 » Mon Feb 14, 2011 12:38 am

Oktar, will you post the EA so we can all backtest as well?

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