2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

free & uncensored discussion arena for TheRumpledOne

Moderator: moderators

cosmoe1
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 118
Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:22 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male

Postby cosmoe1 » Wed Jan 05, 2011 4:37 pm



lost my first trade of the day. made up for it on my second.

cos

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

cosmoe1
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 118
Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:22 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male

Postby cosmoe1 » Thu Jan 06, 2011 5:28 am

GeorgeCh wrote:So, I just took the system on a two-day backtest with a twist.

I manually scrolled bar-by-bar on 5M TF through EUR/USD on Dec 30 and Dec 31 (and yes, I realize this is not an exhaustive sample size by any stretch of imagination).

The idea was simple - by scrolling through the charts and making decisions on the basis of the information available to me at the time - rather than retroactively eyeballing through the available data - I could put myself in the shoes of a trader using the system with the element of uncertainty thrown it.

I used the following rules:

1. Wait for the price to make a new high.
2. On 5M TF, wait for a red candle to close.
3. On 5M TF, enter on the next candle as soon as the price reaches the previous candle's low.
4. SL: 10 pips; TP: fixed 5 pips (to eliminate the discretionary decision-making element).

System performance (1 is win, 0 is loss):


1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

In short, the system produced 12 wins and 2 losses over the two-day period.

Depending on how aggressive you were with risk management, you would make at least 4.05% return over the two-day period - assuming that your SL is equal to 1% of account, and your TP is equal to 0.5% of account.

Should those values be increased to the recommended 2% SL and 1% TP, the return would be 8.22%.

And, just to throw it out there, were you crazy enough to do 5%/2.5%, you'd end up with a whooping 21.37% gain.

Now, obviously, this sample size cannot be representative of the population; more to the point, the winning streak probably skews the results somewhat.

On the other hand, it should be noticed that one of the losers could have been turned a winner by exiting at 5 pip profit, and that at least two winners could have been turned into even greater winners by following the subsequent downtrend.

Before I take this system for a live spin, I'll run more such tests and revert back to you.


Hey George thanks for the "light bulb moment" on risk management. So many people have tried to explain risk management with so many different formulas to me. I do not know why I could not grasp it, but when I read it the way you wrote it, the light bulb came on. Thank you.

Cosmoe1

eaforex
rank: <50 posts
rank: <50 posts
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 7:25 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby eaforex » Thu Jan 06, 2011 10:14 am

:-)

cosmoe1
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 118
Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:22 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male

Postby cosmoe1 » Thu Jan 06, 2011 6:22 pm



First trade loss -10. second trade I thought I would do something a little different. I would let it run to +20 or get stopped out at -10. well it took awhile but I made the +20. Gotta love working off the daily lows.

Cos

User avatar
tmanbone
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 723
Joined: Sun Nov 15, 2009 3:52 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male

Postby tmanbone » Wed Jan 12, 2011 2:26 pm

TRO, was this a Quasimodo on E/U? Thanks for sharing.
http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2009/06/ ... ttern.html

Image
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"

T

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
TheRumpledOne
rank: 10000+ posts
rank: 10000+ posts
Posts: 12772
Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
Reputation: 1253
Location: Oregon
Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
Gender: None specified
Contact:

Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Jan 12, 2011 3:09 pm

Quasimodo ??
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

User avatar
trueblueTEX
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 532
Joined: Mon Apr 12, 2010 4:38 pm
Reputation: 1
Gender: None specified

Postby trueblueTEX » Wed Jan 12, 2011 5:07 pm

Yeah, that's like a modo but not quite.

User avatar
tmanbone
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 723
Joined: Sun Nov 15, 2009 3:52 am
Reputation: 0
Gender: Male

Postby tmanbone » Wed Jan 12, 2011 9:32 pm

The quasimodo over under pattern from no brainer trades, the link is in my post. I got it from from one of TRO's post I believe in this thread a while back. My thoughts were it would help some of us from jumping the gun on our rat trades. It may just have well been a rounded bottom. There was a discussion a while back on V and rounded reversals too.
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"



T

Humble
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 576
Joined: Fri Mar 20, 2009 10:29 am
Reputation: 2
Gender: Male

Postby Humble » Thu Jan 13, 2011 12:39 am

Nothing like a well rounded bottom and a V top. [-X
Is price closing higher or lower than something? Simple yet powerful question. ..MO

User avatar
genlogins
rank: 150+ posts
rank: 150+ posts
Posts: 153
Joined: Wed Jun 23, 2010 3:39 pm
Reputation: 0
Gender: None specified

Postby genlogins » Thu Jan 13, 2011 10:16 pm

I prefer the double top, with a rounded smooth bottom. :lol:
================================================

The Way To Money Is Using Simplicity And Take Small Loses

================================================

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “TheRumpledOne”