2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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jlpk007
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Postby jlpk007 » Sun Nov 21, 2010 5:34 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:
jlpk007 wrote:Hi TRO,

I understand you always mentioned 10 pips stop loss. does that apply to all time frame?
Be it M15,M30 H1 , h4 etc?

I have been trading EUR/USD M15..sometime i freak out and take a 3-4 pips profit...then my next trade blew it with a 10 pips loss...

Thank You



PRICE IS THE SAME ON ALL TIME FRAMES!!!


When are traders going to learn this?

The only true chart is the 1-tick chart.

ALL THE REST ARE DATA COMPRESSION!!

10 pip is the stop loss.


Got it :lol: will continue to practise..thank you TRO

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Nov 21, 2010 4:21 pm

maddman wrote:Tro, is there anything to be watchful for or that may indicate a RAT REVERSAL was about to or could take place? If so what would that be? And based upon what information? Eg: MA, Momentum etc..




1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

2) red candle closes

3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.


You really want to go to Yale, don't you?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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maddman
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Postby maddman » Sun Nov 21, 2010 6:52 pm

Tro, Question: when you say:
"3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle." when do I take the trade upon the open of the new candle? And off what time frame? Also suppose the new candle is red, is that a no-go?

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sun Nov 21, 2010 8:20 pm

3) I use the M5 chart.

The trigger line stays in effect until a new trigger line is established.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby MAXiMUS_ » Sun Nov 21, 2010 9:41 pm

Hiya TRO,

My only question for you is :
( because we all already know when should we enter the trade) You said that we should take whatever we can and close the trade...

Your entries have very big potential sometimes for 10-20pips, but as I trade "RAT reverse" from maybe more than 6 months, I can see that many many times price is just doing 3 pips in direction od profit and then suddenly is going against you more than 10pips you have in stop loss.
sometimes only touching your stop and going back in direction of profit.

My question is: if price is going in direction of profit how do you determine to stay in trade or to keep position even if price stopped for a while or moved a bit back ?
Can we just focus on exits for a while please? I think that most of us who trade real money with ECN already know entries...

Thank You TRO

Best regards
"It is stupid to fight a battle that you cannot win, and you cannot win unless you have properly planned for it". - Sun Tzu, The Art of War

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Postby ajaymein » Sun Nov 21, 2010 11:12 pm

If you can take 3 pip every time, isn't that more than enough? Maybe, try setting your sl to break even at 3 pips then exiting when a 1m or 30sec chart makes a higher high or lower low in the opposite direction.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Nov 22, 2010 1:37 am

I have mentioned and posted my EXIT PLAY BOOK.

You need to develop your own EXIT PLAY BOOK.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby KrystalSkull » Mon Nov 22, 2010 12:05 pm

Thanks TRO for the wonderful indicators ..... love ya work, awesome job!

Questions:

If we are looking only to make maximum 5 trades per day and the first 3 trades are losers,

do we still make the next 2 trades on the same currency in order to try and catch the reversal,

or do you look for another pair of interest?

Also have you or anyone noticed if the odds are higher in sticking to one currency pair (per day)

even if the H1 bias turns against you, or again find a new pair that has the H1 bias in your favor?

at the same time trying to find a pair that is also above the daily and weekly open (if you are a green rat)?

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Postby Naynay » Mon Nov 22, 2010 12:39 pm

I don't know, but wouldn't you wait for the correct candle formation to appear on the M15 before you enter the trade?

You'd let the new high consolidate for a few candles to confirm that it's the high, and then take the break of opposite coloured candles in the other direction? Otherwise you'd be jumping in too early and risking a loss I would imagine.

I think TRO should have the final word on that though.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon Nov 22, 2010 1:15 pm

Image



"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

=============================================

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

=============================================

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

2) Red candle closes

3) Green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

4) Enter long at the green candle's high price

5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

6) Take whatever profit you can.

7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.

=============================================
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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