2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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ncase
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Postby ncase » Fri Oct 01, 2010 9:51 pm

The_Snowman wrote:[font=Comic Sans MS]Absolutely, you need to install the Daily Pivot Points and Mid Points, see the charts I posted today, these are TRO modified indicators, they display real good and price will react at those levels due to the amount of traders that use them[/font]


Thank you snowman. I saw that in your screenprint later in the thread. By the way, I wouldn't be mad if you or tmanbone posted the name of the Daily Pivots and Mid points indicator(s) :) . Otherwise I'll just search through my batches for something obvious.

Neville

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skivers
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Postby skivers » Mon Oct 04, 2010 8:32 am

Hi - a new boy here :) :)

I spent the whole weekend reading this thread from the beginning and cutting and pasting anything important into a word file (this file is now my biggest!)

I had a play on Thursday and and lost only when I had not understood the rules.

I had one loss on Friday when I placed my last ever manual entry on this system (market orders from now on).

These are my three trades for this morning

The first looks late - but I was waiting for the hour to change so the market sentiment would also be short.
I did not trade the rat leaving the trap because of the H1 bias being long.

The last trade nearly stopped me out - I made a small error with the market order and got in late (it went to 10! so I missed triggering the SL by a whisker)

I reckon you guys and girls might be able to criticise that particular trade for me. - I feel in my bones something is not right - but I haven't a clue what it is.

I got out real fast on any pauses and grabbed the pips on offer - I'l let you guys have the rest :D

I stopped on the 10 pips so a nice 2% for me today

Skivers




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tmanbone
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Postby tmanbone » Mon Oct 04, 2010 12:17 pm

Delete
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"

T

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The_Snowman
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Thinking of the HOUR candle color

Postby The_Snowman » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:30 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

Price was leaving the daily low + 20 area, no need to wait any longer.


This chart shows exactly why it is so hard for people to trade with the Hour Candle colour.

Clearly, for the last hour, price is going down. Now the CAN indicator is Green only because the new hour has only 2 bars.

This indicates either, a) best to only look for trades every hour, or b) do we really need to put that much importance on the hour candle colour?

Can anyone expand on the reasoning behind that? Thanks, John

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The_Snowman
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Postby The_Snowman » Tue Oct 05, 2010 6:39 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:PONDER THIS...

If you enter a rat reversal trade and your stop has never been threatened, what does that imply?


.... that you are NOT trading the BEAST = EUR - JPY :lol:

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skivers
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Postby skivers » Tue Oct 05, 2010 7:44 am

Today's trades

And sorry for the messy screen with all the cancelled market orders

The first was + 2 - if i could have got my market order in in time when my rat left the trap i would have been finished then!
It was followed by a +1, +4 and finally a +4

so 11 for the day another 2%!!

The second trade was in too early I entered just before the minute change and spent an uncomfortable 7 minutes. Thinking about it the hourly candle wasn't in my favour - i need to put a line on my chart in future

thanks TRO :)

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Oct 05, 2010 1:10 pm

Image


"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.

The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."

P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)

=============================================

"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:

1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)

2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)

They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)

They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden

=============================================

1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

2) Red candle closes

3) Green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.

4) Enter long at the green candle's high price

5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS

6) Take whatever profit you can.

7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Oct 05, 2010 1:40 pm

Image


=============================================

The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.

=============================================

"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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trueblueTEX
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Postby trueblueTEX » Tue Oct 05, 2010 1:45 pm

Dang it, I panicked and only got 2.8 pips!!

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tmanbone
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Postby tmanbone » Tue Oct 05, 2010 2:07 pm

Image

Couldn't get in with limit order.
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"



T

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