2009.09.10 DRAIN THE BANKS - LIKE A RAT

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Apr 13, 2010 1:35 pm

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RESULTS.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Apr 13, 2010 1:38 pm

flinux wrote:1.53988 isn't within 20 pips of the daily low, so buy at that price (in this case) is still correct ?



1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY

GREEN RAT REVERSAL - LONG ENTRY CRITERIA: 1) RED CANDLE CLOSES 2) GREEN CANDLE CLOSES 3) PRICE TOUCHES HIGH OF PREVIOUS GREEN CANDLE - ENTER LONG. STOP LOSS IS ALWAYS 10 PIPS.

For the trade in question, the best entry would have been within 20 pips of the low. The GREEN RAT REVERSAL is "always" a possible entry.
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Apr 13, 2010 1:41 pm

blubbb wrote:
TheRumpledOne wrote:"Think about the stock market, which is a classic example of a "random walk," since the past movement of any particular stock cannot be used to predict its future movement."


I still don't believe the market is a random walk, at least not always. If this was true, everyone's equity curve would be a random walk, too...


I do not believe you can infer or deduce that.
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Postby blubbb » Tue Apr 13, 2010 2:51 pm

Hmmmm. I don't know, but when the market is 100% random walk then it is also a random walk between the time I enter a trade and the time I exit it. Example for a long trade:
equity = equity_before_the_trade + (price_current - price_enter) * lotsize
+ - * are all linear operations, so the way equity moves is proportional to market movement (while in a trade).

(I know I am a Yalie *g*)

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Apr 13, 2010 3:14 pm

You said EQUITY CURVE which is based on entry/exit.
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Postby Humble » Wed Apr 14, 2010 3:48 am

I would have thought if a market was random there would be no areas of support and resistance.
Is price closing higher or lower than something? Simple yet powerful question. ..MO

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Postby blubbb » Wed Apr 14, 2010 10:09 am

Sorry, equity curve was the wrong word. Right. I meant "balance". But that wouldn't make a difference if the market really was totally random. In my opinion.
And I also believe what Humble said about s/r! It wouldn't behave like a rubber band near extremes either. I think all those methods work just because the market is not 100% random.

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Apr 14, 2010 12:37 pm

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Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20) or daily high (HiCl < 20 ) - that is OPPORTUNITY
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Apr 14, 2010 12:56 pm

Image

Image

RESULTS.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Postby bredin » Wed Apr 14, 2010 9:02 pm

Random, but biased.
Like the rat test where the cheese was randomly placed but 60/40 biased.

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