2009.06.24 WHY 95% OF TRADERS LOSE PART III

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noone22
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Postby noone22 » Thu Aug 06, 2009 12:19 pm

jacal1 wrote:it always amazes me how we as humans try to make things more difficult than it really is. K I S S


Yeh yeh,
It's very good advice to keep things simple.
However, for the guy, always striving for perfection -
it's nearly impossible.

I wonder, how rat could know, that 60% is greater than 40% -
it doesn't seem to know sign >= (greater or equal),
not even speaking about integral equation.

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Postby Cyrillic » Thu Aug 06, 2009 1:18 pm

The thing is rats don't over analyze, they don't strive for perfection they just do it, one thing that most traders have in common is that they all have 1000 excuses why their loosing position would go their way and they over-analyze themselves into a perfect loss and than complain that they can't make money :)
Yup there is no algorithm or right or wrong, its either you profit or you don't that is all that matters.

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blubbb
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Postby blubbb » Thu Aug 06, 2009 1:25 pm

The problem is that you still cannot hook a rat to a buy/sell button as it will most probably overtrade. :-)

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Postby Cyrillic » Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:49 pm

well actually if you put the cheese in whatever direction the price goes according to h 1, you could probably get rat to make consistent profits (call it rat zone), but it would probably cost a whole lot of money to make a live rat maze indicator. It would still predict better than some of the a"mazing" analysts out there.lol :)

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:50 pm

You don't even need a rat.

Use the Buy Zone on the H1 chart but only trade in one direction, long or short until you make money. Price will go your way sooner or later.

If your losses are always 10 pips then your wins will more than make up the losses. One big run in your favor puts you over the top.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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razorboy
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Law of Large Numbers

Postby razorboy » Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:30 pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

Understand this and you might understand trading..............
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Postby razorboy » Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:52 pm

create a binary event.......

would it not make more mathematical sense to set your SL to something based on the average size of the lower wick of bullish candles


TheRumpledOne wrote:You don't even need a rat.

Use the Buy Zone on the H1 chart but only trade in one direction, long or short until you make money. Price will go your way sooner or later.

If your losses are always 10 pips then your wins will more than make up the losses. One big run in your favor puts you over the top.
Ya, I manufacture clear shoe boxes.....http://www.clear-shoe-boxes.com.............who would have thunk!



http://thejoshkerbelproject.com/

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Postby Humble » Fri Aug 07, 2009 2:48 am

Or the ATR.

Might have got rid of the rat, but I still need the cheese.
Is price closing higher or lower than something? Simple yet powerful question. ..MO

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Help, what should I do?

Postby cosmoe1 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 6:28 am

I had a sell trade going my way. My T/P was 1.43406, the 15m candle at 2009.08.7.07:45 says it's low was 1.43402 my trade did not close out. Any thoughts on what I should do. Or just hope it goes to my T/P again and not get stopped out.
I trade on Alpari U.S.
Tim

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Postby Humble » Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:10 am

Have you allowed for the spread, ie the difference between the bid and ask price?
Tro has an indi which will show both on your chart, I think it's called Tro spread dots or something similar.
Is price closing higher or lower than something? Simple yet powerful question. ..MO

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