2009.06.24 WHY 95% OF TRADERS LOSE PART III

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Brookmyre
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Postby Brookmyre » Thu Nov 26, 2009 3:43 am

Hmmmm, so am I right in thinking that the difference between the bees taking a small sample and deciding on a course of action (which is good) and humans taking a small sample and deciding on a course of action (which is bad) is that bees look at a pattern and see what's likely while we look at a pattern to see what's alike? The bee sees the how often a green candle appears while we're looking for the evening star pattern......?

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Nov 26, 2009 4:25 pm

There is no right/wrong or good/bad in trading. There is only profitable/unprofitable.

The bees are not looking at a pattern at all. The bees take the more profitable action.

That's why the bees "outsmart" the humans.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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Postby xiaoyazhi » Fri Nov 27, 2009 5:14 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:Image

Why don't we use charts that look like these?

Maybe we would SEE which way price is moving because we would actually have to LOOK at which way price is moving INSTEAD of relying on the color of the candle. Hmmmmmmm.....

Is that why Jacko tells you to ask a 5 year old which way price is moving?


Just testing this out : how about this? Any comments? Hope I am using it correctly.

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Nov 27, 2009 6:38 pm

Image

Image
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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noushina
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Postby noushina » Sat Nov 28, 2009 2:23 am

Jason Zweig. Good stuff. Thanks Avery.

Much of the book can be found at
www.google.books.com
search: jason zweig

Looks like there are 3-5 pages, and then 2 pages removed. This goes on for the entire book. So 2/3 of entire book is available online for free

Or it sells for pretty cheap used from amazon. Think I'll just buy one.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Nov 28, 2009 2:28 am

I am reading a copy from the library.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Paul
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bumble bees

Postby Paul » Sat Nov 28, 2009 10:31 pm

Animals outperform humans in some other jobs as well. But talking about the bees and their behavior I want to stress that those experiments pertain to
random distribution
. However, the markets are NEVER pure random or pure non-random (chaotic=deterministic). In fact the financial markets are intermittent. Besides those experiments used fixed distributions with a finite variance, whereas the markets do not possess this quality most of the time. The men must have assumed (perhaps on account of their experience) that the hidden problem was far more complex than it really deserved.
It would be interesting to analyze experiments with bees or other animals in conditions nearer the true complex nature of the financial markets.
Animals do not act on greed, they act only if needed and when in need they will take every arising opportunity to act/hunt, whereas it is common for traders to contemplate too long or to not take a trade on an assumption that there is going to be another one later, next time, next day.
To put it more scientifically, animals use the whole sample of promising events, while traders take only some. A lot of trading opportunities goes wasted just because some traders need constant confirmation of their (good) strategy. Animals do not act for pure satisfaction.
Another distinct feature of animals' world is that when they are compelled to act, they will not be distracted by anything else. They exhibit the finest concentration ever, while traders often do five more other things at the same time.
Animals take what nature gives. Traders often seek things markets very seldom give and should they become exceptionally rewarded they will unreservedly formulate a law which in fact does not exist at all.
Animals are known for their predictive power of the weather changes and they well sense natural disasters. They do not use Lorenz differential equations to model the weather nor other modern tools of physics to anticipate an earthquake or a tsunami.

Animals do not have mass media. They act on on what they see and know themselves, not on prompts from anybody who has never grazed grass.

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wy traders lose money?

Postby Paul » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:56 pm

http://clip2net.com/page/m0/2828474
http://clip2net.com/page/m0/2828530
http://clip2net.com/page/m0/2828567
http://clip2net.com/page/m0/2828614

Four (4) trading stations from the same provider (metaquotes) but from four (4) different retail brokers.

ONLY ONE CHART IS CORRECT.

The three incorrect ones couldn't have prompted a profitable trade.
One crucial candle can generate an entirely different trading signal.

This is a common practice and the chart manipulation is a manual work of a special dealer on duty who can halt the stream of quotes for some time and when done, you get a false candle, a false chart and false signals. This kind of a ripple will echo several times if not more n the future.

ONE FALSE CANDLE CAN DISTORT YOUR TRADING SIGNALS NOT JUST ONCE BUT MANY TIMES LATER ON.

THIS IS an example of A WHITE COLLAR FREUD.

P.S. I have not attached my indicator but after the marked candle there is one more lost trading opportunity due to another missing signal.

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Postby noushina » Fri Dec 04, 2009 1:56 am

can get the zweig book as a amazon kindle ebook for 9.95, instant download

http://www.amazon.com/Your-Money-Brain- ... B000SEPIGE


Need to download the free kindle reader for PC to read it.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/kindle/pc/download

May be the most important book I have ever read

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat Dec 12, 2009 4:05 pm

Yes, that book has been added to the MUST READ list.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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