2009.03.08 THE DRAINING CONTINUES...

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Nessa Novembian
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Postby Nessa Novembian » Thu May 07, 2009 10:26 am

Fxtraveller,

Thank you for your advice.

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noone22
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Postby noone22 » Thu May 07, 2009 11:19 am

Fxtraveller wrote:if you trade with H1 then the probabilites to get some profit are much much higher


Why on H1 probability will be higher, I wonder?

One defintely have to have higher stop-loss and
(optionaly) target profit there - but it's not
necessearaly he'll have more winners (as compared to M15).

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Postby Fxtraveller » Thu May 07, 2009 1:20 pm

noone22,

My main message is that you dont go against H1. That way you dont even have to switch to M15. If you do like M15, then having a candle color multimeter can be helpful.

a 10 pip trigger from the high made by a H1 candle with a semafor (TRO's Rules) is still going to be the same on M1, M15, M30, H1, as its High- 10 pips / Low +10 pips. And the Profit / Loss is still the same- TP= 10 pips after the 10 pip trigger is hit, and SL= just above newly made high.

So, again, its NOT ON H1 that the probability is higher, but its trading WITH H1. And trading with H1 excludes a lot of trades, some winners, some losers. Its just that I personally find that trading with H1 is more profitable.

ie (trading randomly with AND against H1 could result in
60% win / 40 % lose (a very rough estimate of my recent experience on a demo :) )

whereas trading just WITH H1 gives about 80% win / 20% Lose (again, rough estimate, but I instantly felt the difference). Add money management, ie close half position at TP=10 pips and leave the other half on the table as a "free trade", and you are laughing.


I should also add that I dont trade it anymore, the reason being that now it is statistically profitable, but what might happen when crisis is over and volatility will finally cool down? then you should adjust your trigger to 6-7-8 pips, whatever.... but by the time you find out that you should adjust yourself, you might lose some money.

What I use is an automatic EA that is very profitable and makes me sooo rich at the moment and you can buy it by following this link:

www. .... nah, just messing :)


Im using TRO SR RR, because the entries are based on pivots of candles making new Highs/Lows. so the risk /reward changes all the time. it can be 14-20 pips one day, and it can be just 5-7 another. I find this system absolutely perfect, its always "adapting" to the market volatility.

P.S.
I've put TRO SR RR and Semafor systems on one chart, and the entry triggers are VERY close to each other, 1-4 pips difference, sometimes one earlier than another.

Anyway, im out of breath now. Hopefully I explained myself a bit more clearly about trading the semafor.
Cheers.

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Postby Fxtraveller » Thu May 07, 2009 1:32 pm

Forgot to add that im using TRO SR RR on a REAL account, works just fine. just in case if anybody will feel like saying that demo users shouldnt comment about too much... LOL :)

Trading TRO SR RR with 0.01 (micro?) lots, will get bigger as im used to it, feel like pump in 1 full lot already (2000 euros capital), but had been burned very painfully in january this year when greed kicked in and traded 1 full lot (decided to ride a wave as EURUSD gained huge momentum), lost 400 euros, which eradicated 2 months of carry trading profit and extra -5% loss of initial investment (basically from 2300 to 1900, overnight, didnt sleep very well, but lesson learned forever now :).

by the way, CARRY trading is brillaint stuff as well, going at 5% a month rate, virtually NO risk and 60% a year extra can hurt anybody :) AUD/EUR , NZD/JPY are my favourites.

My apologies if im went completely out of topic, wont happen again :)

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Postby Fxtraveller » Thu May 07, 2009 1:34 pm

60% a year canT hurt*

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu May 07, 2009 2:44 pm

Fxtraveller wrote:Forgot to add that im using TRO SR RR on a REAL account, works just fine. just in case if anybody will feel like saying that demo users shouldnt comment about too much... LOL :)

Trading TRO SR RR with 0.01 (micro?) lots, will get bigger as im used to it, feel like pump in 1 full lot already (2000 euros capital), but had been burned very painfully in january this year when greed kicked in and traded 1 full lot (decided to ride a wave as EURUSD gained huge momentum), lost 400 euros, which eradicated 2 months of carry trading profit and extra -5% loss of initial investment (basically from 2300 to 1900, overnight, didnt sleep very well, but lesson learned forever now :).

by the way, CARRY trading is brillaint stuff as well, going at 5% a month rate, virtually NO risk and 60% a year extra can hurt anybody :) AUD/EUR , NZD/JPY are my favourites.

My apologies if im went completely out of topic, wont happen again :)


Please post a chart or 2.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu May 07, 2009 7:03 pm

Image
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Postby noone22 » Fri May 08, 2009 12:16 am

Fxtraveller wrote:whereas trading just WITH H1 gives about 80% win / 20% Lose


OK, I see now.
Thanx for detailed explanation.
Of course, trader of DTB system must remember H1 rule.

If your profit loss and targets are exactly the same,
should you've switched to M15 chart - then it makes sense.

But probability and statistics, that semafors patters
appearing more frequently and are more reliable on H1 chart,
as compared to M15 chart (and this was the reason of my question)
are not known for sure (in general). From your experience,
you arrived to preference of H1 charts.
I never traded H1 charts and cannot compare on them.

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TRO SR RR

Postby Fxtraveller » Fri May 08, 2009 2:54 pm

EUR/USD. H1. Rally up from 3252. The Original H1 Go Long Trigger was not at 3296 though, but at 3263 because the indy is dynamic and later had made a new high at 3468. But I got in earlier using M15.
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For some very obscure reasons even to myself, I wait for H1 to make new High/LOW, but try and use M15/M30 to jump in earlier. If Candle opens already above the trigger line, then trade the trigger on H1.

I did not trade the move down because the candle a
2.gif (20.26 KiB) Viewed 914 times

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TRO SR RR

Postby Fxtraveller » Fri May 08, 2009 3:04 pm

Here is a trade on a M15 and where you actually can see the proper trigger. You would not enter a trade at 23:15 (first candle to cross the trigger line) as this would be against H1, but you DO enter at 00:00 when price crosses for the 2nd time as this would be with the H1 candle
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3.gif (20.35 KiB) Viewed 909 times

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