$TRILLION STRATEGY

trading strategies and money management discussion, code, results

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TheRumpledOne
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Re: Need Some Help

Postby TheRumpledOne » Fri Jun 22, 2007 6:32 am

Randolermo wrote:I must be doing something wrong.

I check the candle for currency pairs for the last 24 hours at just before 4PM NY time. If green, I buy and if red, I sell.

My results are now less than 50% wins over 20+ trades. :(

Am I missing something :?:

Rando


I have no idea when you are exiting the trade.

I have no idea what you are trading.

Please post screenshots of your trades.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Shane280us
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ELX ERROR

Postby Shane280us » Sat Jul 14, 2007 12:54 am

TRO,
I changed over from Esignal to Tradestation Forex just this week and I'm having some problems getting $Trillion Strategy to work correctly.

I followed your instructions from the first page installed the ELD, the created a session FOREX_DST then open the workspace but I get the attached error. Do you have any idea of what I'm missing or perhaps a step I've missed.

I've downloaded all the Motherloads since Jan 2007.

Any help appreciated

tks Shane
Attachments
ELX ERROR.JPG
ELX ERROR.JPG (32.44 KiB) Viewed 616 times
TRIL SESSION.JPG
TRIL SESSION.JPG (70.62 KiB) Viewed 616 times
TRIL CHART.JPG
TRIL CHART.JPG (43.98 KiB) Viewed 616 times

Shane280us
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Postby Shane280us » Sat Jul 14, 2007 3:05 am

TRO,

I worked it out I needed to download and install the .ELX Library from Tradestation. It fixed it and now works fine.

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Randolermo
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Keep Us Updated

Postby Randolermo » Sat Jul 14, 2007 3:12 am

Shane, I was not having success with Trillion strategy (demo ony) but it is probably because I was doing something wrong. I'm playing with Milking the Cows right now but would like to hear your results. If you are successful as TRO suggests, I'll get back to this strategy and make corrections as necessary to get it right.

Thanks...Rando

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Postby Shane280us » Sat Jul 14, 2007 3:40 am

Just incase anyone else runs into the same problem I did these are the files I needed to download from Tradestation All Forums > EasyLanguage Library > TradeStation Compatible DLLs

- Elx - 1.3 DLL
- Global Variable DLL 2.1

I have Tradestation 8.3 Forex and I'm not sure if thats what caused me issues, but it works fine now and looks just as presented by TRO on the first page.

Cheers Shane

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Anyone doing this?

Postby waldom » Tue Aug 28, 2007 4:22 am

Hello,

I just started trading on the Forex the past week and what a surprise I have lost money after reading about 6 books and doing tons of research.

In frustration I made a list of rules from now, which is basically a Trillions strategy plus some other criteria with money management.

My first trade worked perfectly and I made my 10 pips if only I hadn't lost 100.

However, I am skeptical that I will continue with such ease as nothing in life is so simple. I am wondering if anyone is actually trading the forex for real using this strategy profitably. No one has been on this thread for over a month, and I have read it about 4 times...

TRO do you actually trade this weekly with consistant profitable results? Or do you just post the potential gains after the day has happened? I don't mean that to sound hostile, I just would love to know if you make money doing this. Obviously I will find out soon enough if it works, but I guess I am just looking for hope after a bad week.

M goal is to build my account up to about 60K so I only have to risk 2.5% to make 1500 a day.

I am planning on using a TP of 10 and a SL of 8 like today.

I am 1 for 1 with real money. I only plan on making 1 trade a day and picking what appears to be the best of the 4 major currency pairs at 3:58.

We'll see how it goes,

Wal

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Postby TheRumpledOne » Tue Aug 28, 2007 1:25 pm

"TRO do you actually trade this weekly with consistant profitable results? Or do you just post the potential gains after the day has happened? I don't mean that to sound hostile, I just would love to know if you make money doing this. Obviously I will find out soon enough if it works, but I guess I am just looking for hope after a bad week. "

You now know firsthand that what I or what anyone else does is not going to increase your account. It's how you trade that counts.

Focus on YOUR TRADES and YOUR ACCOUNT.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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Books and Pips don't add up.

Postby Patch » Wed Aug 29, 2007 2:32 am

Wal

I am curious, what were the several books and perhaps ebooks you read prior to live trading. Did you demo, or paper trade your method first?

I've found that emotions are hugh also.

Patch
In VA

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The "Holy Grail" of Trading

Postby casinoman » Sun Sep 02, 2007 3:35 am

TRO's given everyone the "Holy Grail" of trading!!



Why are their so many doubting Thomases? Why are they so many seeking mathematical exactness like "2+2=4" or perfect symmetry and logical perfection like "A then B then C"? This is picture perfect trading simplicity!

I hope that TRO will forgive my taking liberties in defining some of the theoritical aspects:

1. The actual trading instrument is not important. It can be stocks, bonds, options, futures, commodities or forex.

2. The quantification of the actual instrument traded is not important. The fundamentals or news are non-considerations as they are already factored into the instrument's price. The technicals are acted upon at differing time intervals with one overlapping and effecting another interval.

3. The actual starting point selected is not really important. It can be any point, it just doesn't matter. It is just an arbitrary point of reference.

4. It is important to set the long or short entry points wide enough to absorb and minimize "noise and whipsaw" relative to the time period of trading. One just has to use some common sense based on observations and experience. The closer the entry points to the exit line the shorter period of time and visa versa. Five minutes is different than 15 and hourly is different than daily.

5. When the trade moves in the desired direction, you ride that pony until you just can't stand it any more. Whereas, if the moves against you, you have a defined loss amount. In other words, you know exactly what you can lose (risk) and it is finite but the amount you can gain (win) is infinite (well not really but you understand the point).

6. It is no more than a simple gambling proposition (I just can't resist punching in metaphors from my career). Basically it's a 50-50 chance of an instrument going up or going down and no one knows with any degree of certainty which way it will go. Technicians, fundamentalists and news wary people will attempt to predict what is going to happen in the future. They're kinda like a seer predicting that a 7 will roll on the craps table and they'll be right 1/6th of the time and wrong 5/6ths of the time. There are absolute, undeniable facts, if the price IS moving up then be long and if the price IS moving down you better be short! What TRO's Holy Grail does is to give a person the opportunity to move directionally with the price with an undefined upside and a defined downside relative to the time frame the person chooses to participate in relative to their "betting" limits.

7. Understanding the "gambling" math behind the concept is essential. In order to win you must either win more times than you lose (percentage wise) or you must win more money when you win than money lost when you lose. Either of these events create a positive expectation. The flip side is a negative expectation (read that casino gambling games).

8. Even with a positive expectation you can lose all your marbles! You have to have enough "bets" to carry you through the standard deviations which occur. If you have a 99% positive expectation of winning a bet and you bet all your marbles on one shot, there is a 1% chance that you'll lose that specific time. Does that mean that you'll win the next time - nope! What happened in the previous decision has no bearing on the odds of the event - the odds of 99-1 remain unchanged. You could lose ten consecutive decisions and win the next 990 in a row - but the odds are still 99-1.

There is a mathematical formula created by a fellow named Kelly and called the Kelly Criterian which is a formula to maximize your "bets" relative to your bankroll and your probability of winning. Essentially if it is followed it is virtually impossible to get busted. The essence of the formula is to bet no more percentage than your positive expectation of your bankroll.

For example, you have bought a stock (or stocks) ten different times. You were willing to accept a loss of $100 each time on each transaction. At the end of the last transaction you had "won" a total of $100. You risked $1,000 to get back $1,100. Your advantage at this point would be 10% (1,100 divided by 1,000 less 1). So Kelly Criterian would indicate that your bankroll would have to be $1,000 ($100 max loss divided by .10 advantage) in order to substain a the $100 bet size.
"Technicians never die - they just chart away"
Trade like a Lemming but don't jump off the cliff like the others

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Postby dgbones » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:30 pm

Yes Casinoman, I can agree with all of the points you made in this post AND I know managers that run their retail desks on some very similar principals. Obviously I would prefer to identify high probability entries, but the exits and the trading discipline are, in my opinion, quite a bit more important.

A trading desk does not always get to choose entry. Their responsibility is to make a market and provide liquidity. When a customer wants to buy the desk can: 1) pass the order through to the NBBO. 2) fill the order to close a position or 3) fill the order to take a position. When customer orders are all on the same side the skill of the trader gets a test.

One potential difference between trading and gambling is that some traders attempt to "read" price action or whatever to give themselves an edge. Unlike the red/black proposition the gain decline proposition of a specific security could leave clues to the continuing direction of the price of that security.

Red 32 times and everyone around the table has lost all their money betting on Black! Why? There is no trend because the events are unrelated...where a stock that is moving up it continues to do so untill sellers outpace buyers. In securities trading there are other forces acting on price movement where the red/black/green proposition is 18:18:2. 47.4% chance red, 47.4% chance black and 5.2% green...bastards have that "edge" provided by the two green numbers.

So, from a money mgmt perspective (which includes trade exits as the item that realizes a result) I think a trader is totally fine applying a strategy based on what you have expressed. I do feel that exits and the ability to stay on methodology are more important than trade entries.

However, I still do everything I can to find the best entries. I want the highest probability trades with the greatest expectancy. I want to be right on entry, let the winner run and be right on the exit as well. That is not asking to much is it?

Just thought I'd add this. What percentage of the time are markets in an uptrend, a downtrend, or no trend? If you carried that answer over to the 47/47/5 ....how would you trade that?

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