100% winning EAyou can't find any EA better than

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forexbob
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Postby forexbob » Sat Mar 06, 2010 7:35 pm

blubbb wrote:Same here. *g*



nice blubbb ( always wonder what your nick means. my goldfish said blub :-) )

how high can we go :shock: http://traxxon.mt4live.com/

before you know, you are on cloud nine
The highest Forex rebates: http://www.cashbackforex.info

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noone22
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Postby noone22 » Sun Mar 07, 2010 11:49 am

I'll show one example, which still gets me curious about this EA stuff.

Here
http://rapidshare.com/files/352334118/optimize_EA.zip
lies an indicator, lib and EA
password is
thanksToysRus.pdf

You can easily optmize this EA to become profitable
by modifying only these parameters:
ATRPeriod (3 to 9)
Factor (2 to 6)
Trade1VolumeFactor (0 to 1)
Trade2VolumeFactor (0 to 1)
Trade3VolumeFactor (0 to 1)

Practically any pair, any timeframe, any period
(I've found H1 and GBPJPY to be the most sucessfull).

For example, on $10K account this set of parameters
ATRPeriod=3
Factor=5
Trade1VolumeFactor=1
Trade2VolumeFactor=1
Trade3VolumeFactor=1
would make a wooping $9K just from
September till December 2009

(Don't try to trade it in real account, because
it could enter up to 3 trades per 1 signal
with "huge" (in scalping terms)
target-profits and stop-losses of around 100 pips).

Fine, is it Holly Graail?

Not really, just because set of best
performing parameters is different every time.
So, even if you know set of of best (or at least
profitable) parameters for the previous month,
you will be dissapointed next month (or even week)
with these parameters - they lead to complete lose,
while another (unknown yet to you) set of parameters
could exist - but useless, because unknown and not stable,
and not repeating.

I've spent a fortune, trying to understand the reason of the problem
and still don't know why,
but I do know much about EA optimization now.

For any past period you could optmize nearly
every EA (even $99 rubbish one) to become
super-graal. The problem is, that these
parameters won't work (usually) in a future
and nobody will tell you.

To find stable set of repeatevely profitable
parameters - this is the case, which I
cannot fulfil yet for any of EA from my big collection.

So, results of the backtest doesn't mean much.
They only make sense, if set of parameters would
continue to work again and again,
and simple optmization couldn't help much here.
Myabe another method exist, but I'm not aware about it.

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leonyde
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Postby leonyde » Mon Mar 08, 2010 5:10 am

thanks Forexbob - I guess I was a bit lazy :D
Those two links are perfet.


noone22: What about you run a genetic optimization over 5-10 years of data? If you find settings constantly profitable, wouldn't it mean something?

ld40
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Postby ld40 » Mon Mar 08, 2010 5:26 am


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Patch
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Postby Patch » Mon Mar 08, 2010 5:57 am

Id40

I hope you are doing well. I see in the link/post above there are 895 Mismatched charts errors. I've not seen this error before. What does it mean and how significant is it?

Thanks,
Patch
InVA
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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tmanbone
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Postby tmanbone » Mon Mar 08, 2010 6:08 am

This may be a bit off topic but since we're viewing the above link, does anyone know how to decrease the font size at the mql4 site? Is this site hard for you to read or is it just me? Thank you,
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"

T

ld40
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Postby ld40 » Mon Mar 08, 2010 6:19 am

press Ctrl button and press"-" right side of zero button.

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noone22
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Postby noone22 » Mon Mar 08, 2010 11:00 am

leonyde wrote:What about you run a genetic optimization over 5-10 years of data? If you find settings constantly profitable, wouldn't it mean something?


10 years is too much and still useless.
10 years ago there were no EURO at all, for example.
And 1 year ago markets were in huge bearish run,
which is not the case now.

I've run tests for different period of times - from 1 week to several years.

No luck. There are no repeatable stable set of parameters
so far. The trading method itself seems to be
quite artificial without any repeatative pattern,
but my question was more general, irregadless of
particular EA - how to find stable set of profitable parameters.

So far, I'm loosing faith in this particular EA and
will search for another "Graal". In fact, I don't need Graal -
all I need - is some consistence.

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tmanbone
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Postby tmanbone » Mon Mar 08, 2010 3:31 pm

ld40 wrote:press Ctrl button and press"-" right side of zero button.


Was this an answer to my question? If so it doesn't help? Thank you,
"The simplicity of the markets is it's greatest disguise"



T

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TygerKrane
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Postby TygerKrane » Mon Mar 08, 2010 5:23 pm

Tman,
What internet browser do you use? Ctrl+ '-' & Ctrl+'+' change web page font sizes in Firefox.

**Krane catches Tyger** !>I'm here to chew bubble gum and make major pips...and I'm all out of bubble gum.<!

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