Nice thread and good trading west. You already have a good base from which you can build upon, plus with you consistently executing your trading plan you will build up your confidence.
Here is a chart of how I played a 123 setup this year
- usdjpy-w1-tallinex-limited-3.png (59.07 KiB) Viewed 3651 times
Its kind of cluttered but I wanted to show you 99% of what I was looking at.
The blue box repesnts a 1,500 pip range for the uptrend from a swing low to swing high. Then you have price break past the 50% retrace line and you can see if it acts like a support/resistance line. It does act as Res, so then you can take another 1,500 pip box. Put the top of it at the 50 line and use the bottom as a target (which was exactly at a support level). Price then made a triple bottom at that level, along with a descending tri (we played the failure). You then had a big weeklymomo bar 7/10 followed by another smaller one 8/21, there was my 1st position. You then had the the break of the tri and the break of the neckline for the triple bottom, added another position. Then the breakout of the #2, third position.
Now the easy stuff, targets. Notice how when I extended the fib retrace lines (blue broken lines) how they would make great zlines! Then those lines also line up perfectly when I threw some fib extensions on it. Its not magic or luck. Its just how simple and easy the markets are to map (when you have confluence of different idea's your golden). Also with a descending tri you can always target the depth from the high to the neckline (which is super easy to do when one fails).
Price has already hit the first 2 targets. Which means I can take off a position at every next target if I want. Its a potential 2,500 pip move total. Depending on where a trader got in/exits/sl size/risk it has the potential of 10-50% gain risking 2% or less with a properly sized sl for trading a weekly chart. That's if we don't add anymore positions to it. I know the idea of OPM is popular here so you could easily hit 100%.
But keep up the good trading man.