Fundamental Analysis of USD/SEK

discussion on fundamentals influence on rule-based trading

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mrmaster
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Fundamental Analysis of USD/SEK

Postby mrmaster » Thu Apr 19, 2007 10:35 am

Hi,
I have USD/SEK as my main currency pair and would like to share my analysis with you as I think it's a pretty solid bet .
Swedens economy is at it's top . The economy is blooming with unempolyment rates dropping. We have a new right-wing government that has lowered the income tax and completely taken away the annual Real Estate Taxation. Instead they have increased the taxation from 20 to 30 % if you sell property. This will propably force the central bank to increase interest rates with atleast 0,5 % if not 0,75% . Even the government thinks so in their budget( released this week) which caused the SEK to strengten even more this week.
The real estate prices are soring to unreal limits and there is not doubt that the interest rates must be raised. On top of this warning signals are starting to show in USA in the property and real estate . AS USA has ridiculous high foreign trade deficit and other major problems this will not be negative for the USA. I think USA have set their mind to correct the foreign trade deficit , specially with China.
Today the USD/SEK stands at 1/6,78 . Once my account is set up I will take the back on SEK with a goal of 6-6,30 within the next 5 months.

GL!

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Postby mrmaster » Fri Apr 27, 2007 2:23 pm

My theory got more support with US GDP report today and I stick to my goal.
USD/SEK 1/6,69

GL!

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Postby mrmaster » Fri Apr 27, 2007 2:25 pm

And I am actively trading now so not just talking BS.
:D

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Postby Ali Son » Sat Apr 28, 2007 3:51 am

kEEP I IT UP AND KEEP REPORTING YOUR THEORIES/ANALYSIS!

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Postby mrmaster » Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:48 am

Well , after realizing that the fundamentals are less important than trend and that not using the common knowledge from books -
Trade less , ignore the trend , chase recovery from losses etc..,
I have now revaluated my strategy ( blowing my account in the progress).
Funny thing is that all my fundamental analysis said that the dollar should go down while trend says up.

I am going to give it another try but put all my focus to trend/technical analysis.
I'll get back when my account is loaded again with new theories .


NOT:DO NOT trade as I do - it could mean serious financial hazzard to you! :-)

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Postby mrmaster » Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:55 am

The dollar has gained strength against SEK and was 1/7.05 last week at top . Then Swedish central bank raised interest rates and it went down to 1/6.86 but I think it will bounce back up again , at least my technical analysis says so.

26.06.2007 : 1/6.87

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Postby Patch » Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:28 am

MrMaster

I keep telling my wife that we have to take what the market gives us each day. 1, 2 or 3% or nothing, per day is plenty. Take the singles, doubles and triples each day and compounded, your account will grow into your dreams. Skip the big gains and you will be fine. Listen to TRO and do the math your self.

Patch
In VA
ENOUGH being a Yalie for me Back to the Sea. "What i can lose, i can win" "YES YOU CAN" - dragon33 -"Pick one method and one pair and stick with them until you master it. "The choice is yours - success or failure." TRO

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Postby mrmaster » Mon Jun 25, 2007 12:42 pm

Hi Patch,
true - I realize now that trading is 80% discipline if not more and that small gains are the best . I am down but not out ! :-)

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Postby mrmaster » Wed Jun 27, 2007 9:48 am

27.06 Dollar 1/6.91 - Since I don't live in the US I don't know general consensus of market but it is not following fundamentals here. However there it is in a up trend in the technical analysis . Estimation to over 1/7.0 within weeks.

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