My new chaos findings implemented in forex trading

[Paul&Paul]

EURCAD completed 14.208=1.3998.
We do not see a trigger down yet. But it will appear for sure and it will cause a corrective movement.

EURCAD shows serious instability to the upside.

From the downside EURCAD ran away from two UPOs-repellers

1.3737
1.3680.

EURCAD is bound to test those sooner or later.

[Paul&Paul]

CHFPLN reflects the crisis situation very well indeed.

Two massive triggers up, 228 pips and 276 pips expanded 14.208 which means it is a local crash, yet the situation grows worse than that as CHFPLN is trading above those borders.

We have two other triggers up. The first one (354 pips) expanded 4.669 times abd the current stabilizing border, if I may say so, lies at 3.8116.

Problems further down the road mean CHFPLN breaking above 3.8116.
From the downside 3.6114=3.5699 marks the place from where fresh longs took the job.

Do you get the sense of tension? Not really? Just calculate the volatility.
The very graphic picture is not the charts my dear but the streets. Compared to earlier, my impression is that we are not being told the truth about the smoke.

The news media spread the news that it is unrest.

[Paul&Paul]

The most intense experience of CHFPLN honestly elevated eyebrows of many
who earlier had declined to study the chart.
A smile of relief passed through some faces and seemed to linger there. CHFPLN
retreated nicely from 4.1226. Magnificent volatility manifested on seemingly peripheral pair of currencies can be attributed to big names and their big engagement.

There we have over 3000 pips up and 3000 pips down in the course of a few days within one week.

There are four places where some sort of an intervention could be smelled by pigs. And probably there was some action above the area marked by me as
another catastrophic area.

A retreat from one catastrophic area to another castrophic area.
This retracement is fractally a minimum of those huge triggers down, though is this the end of CHF's reign?

[Paul&Paul]

A week ago it looked EURGBP poised to conclude 4.669 and ended with a bullish note and a huge, 72pip trigger up.
On further inspection we see that the first trigger marked 1 expanded to 8873 which is 14.208 of 14 pips.
We will also study the expansion of trigger 2 and 3.
EURGBP performed really finely tuned to trigger1, trigger 2 and trigger3.
8884 is 14.208 of trigger3.
8869 is 4.669 of trigger2.
Semafor3 painted 3 there and on the slide from the top EURGBP marked a UPO@8836 to which the market is bound to return in the future.
Friday ended with a bullish tone.
Note that near the top we do not have a trigger down until quite later and much lower than 8836 which is a UPO-repeller.
It is possible that EURGBP will rise again to form another toppish region before a major slide takes place. So far it found support at 8744 and 8740 and at the same time revisited one of the three UPOs on the way it was going up.
EURGBP is now in the range marked by UPOs seperated by 135 pips. Inside it perfectly clean and quiet trading is going to take place. It has been a week of turbulence on markets. New spending cuts and new taxes announced by Berlusconi. The decision of slashing the spending is in the interest of those whose pockets are being drained right now. Tax dodging is allegedly a favourite pastime there.

[Paul&Paul]

USDJPY softly slid from 14.208=79.89 where it had climbed with the help of BOJ. Levels are less important than what encouraged BOJ to do what they did.
The toppish levels sooner than later proved unsustainable, so what was the game for? Perhaps it was important for some option players, perhaps it was a problem for some commercial banks who had issued some options. There must have been a good reason for an intervention which almost always looks like
a dying flame. But in this particular case we should view the intervention as successful. The trigger expanded beautifully to 14.208. Maybe they wanted just like that.
We see that USDJPY went down to 5.8664 and 9.1299 of two triggers down. And towards the end of the week it traded above those two borders of chaos.
At a glance it looks BOJ might have reiterated intervening. BOJ, even if they get things right, can offer only palliative care so far.
Crucial are
77.00
77.08
77.14.
Friday ended with a clear note up.

[Paul&Paul]

Rows are not the end of the world. After the sound and fury, they can bring concessions.
So far there have been numerous examples of crash-like expansions of triggers by factor 14.208 and the world has not collapsed. In modern markets they are indispensable.
Conventional studies do not show how robust changes occur almost everyday.
Those changes cause local bancruptcies and ungovernable accounts.
Major market players point out that they are to make changes not friends. It is interesting that in the world of seemingly free market there are no concerns about possible legal actions against central banks interventions while cooperatives colluding for the same goal will be traced, prosecuted and jailed in a spectacle of warnings that freedom is erratically understood by the public.
Can central bankers come to the rescue?
Perhaps. To the rescue of who?
Newspapers are digging to understand the root of the problem on both sides of the Atlantic, employing neither farmers nor geologists for the job. There is a moral hazard in central-banking activism. Cynics say it is naive to claim central banks are independent from political leaders. It is politically hard to
encourage criticism while countries are running out of options.
The developed, mature and rich world is in a sorry state. Credits are downgraded, and so are names, and some meanings of important words.
We witness certain institutions attempt to mend the world. Emotionally, like the S&P rating agency, verbally like the FED, practically like BOJ and SNB. The thing is that some are being offered a mere tranquilizer, a placebo pill while some others undergo seemingly not face-lifting but a life-saving surgery.
Meantime I attach EURUSD for consideration and commentary after a break.

[Paul&Paul]

There are good places to attack and no good places at all.
USDCHF bottomed out from levels significant from the point of view of chaotic behavior. This reversal seems well planned, carefully prepared. Hints of several SNB interventions last week support this view.

On August 9 an opportunity arose to trap sellers. Three crucial targets were hit there in the course of one hour and I would boldly claim that SNB itself stood behind that last slump to accelerate changes and change of direction.

They had an army of shorting people against and to see their advancement and potential power I need to attach a chart with RARs. I forgot to mention that SNB based their plans on RARs rather than triggers, and the said targets are derived from the triangular formations.
Nothing was certain, if anything can be certain when reversals are being manufactured, until the first UPO-repeller @ 7344, quite a distance from the recent low. The movement was reinforced by another UPO-repeller @ 7424.

The market ran away from those UPOs and the heat goes on. Shorts have been squeezed and sticky juice glued fingers.

Now, when the reversal is underway, crucial is to crash 7898.
Let us see if there is enough energy to get there.
The first trigger has expanded almost 14.208 already (7795).
The second trigger can expand to 7939 at 14.208 which is more than enough to break 7898. Friday closed above 9.1299 of the second, more important trigger. It worth noting that the retracement is developing with triggers, not a single RAR can be traced out at the moment

[Paul&Paul]

GBPUSD shows three trigger up and a RAR.
There is a cotarget @ 1.6336, 1.6333, 1.6332, 1.6327 which marks a border from the top of the chart. Friday ended with a bullish note.

It is important to look back a little to compare the recent chart with the previous events.

GBPUSD slumped from 14.208 =1.6474 breaking below the marked UPOs.

Now it is poised to return at least to UPO@ 1.6329.

[Paul&Paul]

On July 17 I wrote
GBPJPY is very unstable downwards.

It jerked to almost 131.00 but plummeted from the top and is struggling to recover from lows of 123.00.
GBPJPY is almost where it was after March 11 this year. The yen approaches highs on demand for safety. They write.

There is a cotarget 124.00/123.98/123.93 from the downside from three triggers.

There is a cotarget 125.33/125,32/125.30 from the top from three triggers up.

There is a UPO@ 123.77, a repeller from which GBPJPY runs away now. The market is bound to return to it in the future.

Friday ended with a trigger up and a bullish tone.

[Paul&Paul]

Further studies reveal that central banks' interventions have little to do with blind fury.
From the point of a chaotic system the most important question is whether at the time of intervening they act in a contrarian way - against the dominant tide - or with the current flowing through.

The sensitive method of vector field orientation leaves no doubt, that such interventions take place in locally favourable conditions.

I thought it would be interesting to Readers to see a recent example based on an M5 chart of GBPJPY, what I mean by favourable conditions and what happens immediately after an intervention.

To be able to see inside the system, applied was a big sample which well suits the purpose of drawing the arrows of the vector field orientation.

The presented fragment of the GBPJPY market shown with an M5 chart is in fact the time of the Tokyo session from its very beginning to the early hours of the European session of August 11, 2011.
For clarity, I marked only one fractal projection of trigger1 which in the course of less than three hours expanded by factor of 5.8664 and clearly
the market reacted at the top of 124.52 by retracing a lot of that rise. Important was to observe where exactly it did go then.
GBPJPY returned to the area marked by trigger1 but not below and stayed safely above for a longer time.
This looked like a first test how soft the market was.
Before a sudden jerk (after 10:20 on this chart) the vector field orientation was unreservedly up. You see a large number of arrows pointing to the upside. Ten minutes before the intervention GBPJPY falsely plummeted below the area of trigger1. That was a trap, and I presume, a one prepared by BOJ. The readings of standard indicators suddenly could not cope with the new situation and the bizzare volatility.
Immediately after the jerk, the vector field orientation changed.
Again I presume BOJ was behind the slump as it was behind the soaring a few minutes ago.
Until US opening hours BOJ managed to keep investors in the area clearly pointing south, then suddenly it acted again and this time triggers were bigger and they could fully cooperate with the US banks. They succeeded closing the week at 125.00.

In my view, this intervention has several faces not one, and several well managed attempts. They did something to test, something to show strength, something to fool unaware investors, something to show persistence and cohesion. This example shows that money itself is not everything and money alone cannot win.

We are not certain what goals BOJ wanted to achieve, yet we are sure that some goals they did achieve. and that methods applied were sophisticated, not simple.

GBPJPY expanded 9.1299 of trigger 1 which is 124.87 (136 pips).

The recent picture of GBPJPY shows the border 4.669=125.11.