MidPoint statistics - surprising results!

[christhlo2]

Thanks Michal and Lawrence !

Chris

[eudamonia]

Michal,

I love your post with price overlap graphs. Great stuff. I use something very similar and hence I'm very impressed to see you grappling with the statistics of it.

Also, I've always believed that more bar options could make trading certain systems more viable and even increase indicator reliability. I'm listening to you and Lawrence very closely on this.

Edward

[zeller4]

Michal:

Thanks.

However, I don't know the answer to the question.

I wanted a simple answer.

I only want to consider the midpoint... not 3 zones.

So, for the EURUSD 60 minute interval, if it closes above the middle, what is the "probability" it will close above the middle again?

Ditto for the 15 minute interval.

Thanks.

TRO or anybody using "STATISTICS"

This is my attempt to use TRO Middle Trades and an Excel Spreadsheet to try to determine moves after a cross of the middle. I'm not sure of the PrevMid settings for optimalization, I've only kept it at 60-min for that setting. Attached are 60, 15, and 5-min for the EUR/USD. These are from a data export in Esignal, not sure how to get additional data.

Please revise and resubmit any and all changes or steer me in the right direction.

Thanks,
zeller4

[Tentops]

There many twists to these studies than can greatly improve the stats. I did this type of research in late 80s. There are many gems which I found back then and they are still valid today. Although I don't use this type of analysis in my trading, I would use it still if I had nothing else!

I think you are missing a real clear methodology for testing these concepts.

[Patch]

Welcome TenTops

You said in your above post, "I think you are missing a real clear methodology for testing these concepts."

My immediate question that comes to mind is what?

Patch the Pirate
In VA

[Tentops]

Hi Patch,

The above tests, are based on a observations and rather subjective in the way they are conducted. Its discovering by experience rather than discovering by a process. A scientific breakdown of each component and their relationship to each other is a good starting point. Lets go back to the most basic components of price action, ohlc, first before you even look at "zones".

How do you know its the zones that giving you the bias? Why pick an arbitrary zone level? Could it be an open to close or a close to high thats causing this bias at its root? You cant leave a stone unturned when it comes to price action research.

Like Michal noted himself, stats can show the truth as well as lies.

[TheRumpledOne]

Q. "How do you know its the zones that giving you the bias? Why pick an arbitrary zone level?"

A. "45. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human
behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future.
Mark that word - Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base
moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what
does happen."



I just "know" there's usually profit to be made entering a trade at the previous middle in the direction of the candle color. Statistics seem to "prove" this.

[tmanbone]

Q. "How do you know its the zones that giving you the bias? Why pick an arbitrary zone level?"

A. "45. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human
behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future.
Mark that word - Nobody! Thus the successful trader does not base
moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what
does happen."



I just "know" there's usually profit to be made entering a trade at the previous middle in the direction of the candle color. Statistics seem to "prove" this.

I like this line of thinking.