bakedbeans' learning journal

[bb01100100]

Account updates

Bulenox: Net +0.39%, 1.28% this week (1 down day), 1.9% cumulative, target is 6%
Apex: Net +0.37%, 1.54% this week (0 down days), 3.22% cumulative, target is 6%

The trade copier looks to be working as expected now, so Apex performance is more inline with the main Bulenox account... there were times this week when I switched it off because it wasn't working properly.

Today went well: I worked with the higher timeframe structure I was seeing; and just as importantly, I took profits at sensible levels (no holding out for a home run).

In terms of development:

• I'm becoming more comfortable entering at zline tests, but in retrospect my stops are too far away.. today I could have been stopped out for 1.75pts but got hit at 3.25 pts (the 'swing' extreme price of course!).
• I traded a 1x lot short, working with the bias (this is a point of weakness for me: getting sucked into a higher timeframe retrace and mistaking it for a change of trend and holding for a move that doesn't eventuate)... I fought the urge to get out of the trade at a scratch and let it move for what felt like a long way before closing. It was "only" 3.75 points, but it felt like I'd run it for 5 points..
• Checking my chart fills, if I'd been more systematic in holding the trade - exiting when a prior candle extreme was breached - I'd have netting 5.75 points.
• I need to build my confidence in participating in these moves - both for entering and for exiting.. Once I'm stronger there, I'll move to using more than a 1x lot

Also, on the Corn CFD trade - I took 2/3 of the position off, banking just over 10%. I see it has pulled back 3/4 of the way, so I'm glad I "macro pipped" it.

I'm up, have captured some moves and will end the week there. Double shot espresso #2 is calling for me...

[aliassmith]

Account updates

Bulenox: Net +0.39%, 1.28% this week (1 down day), 1.9% cumulative, target is 6%
Apex: Net +0.37%, 1.54% this week (0 down days), 3.22% cumulative, target is 6%

The trade copier looks to be working as expected now, so Apex performance is more inline with the main Bulenox account... there were times this week when I switched it off because it wasn't working properly.

Today went well: I worked with the higher timeframe structure I was seeing; and just as importantly, I took profits at sensible levels (no holding out for a home run).

In terms of development:

• I'm becoming more comfortable entering at zline tests, but in retrospect my stops are too far away.. today I could have been stopped out for 1.75pts but got hit at 3.25 pts (the 'swing' extreme price of course!).
• I traded a 1x lot short, working with the bias (this is a point of weakness for me: getting sucked into a higher timeframe retrace and mistaking it for a change of trend and holding for a move that doesn't eventuate)... I fought the urge to get out of the trade at a scratch and let it move for what felt like a long way before closing. It was "only" 3.75 points, but it felt like I'd run it for 5 points..
• Checking my chart fills, if I'd been more systematic in holding the trade - exiting when a prior candle extreme was breached - I'd have netting 5.75 points.
• I need to build my confidence in participating in these moves - both for entering and for exiting.. Once I'm stronger there, I'll move to using more than a 1x lot

Also, on the Corn CFD trade - I took 2/3 of the position off, banking just over 10%. I see it has pulled back 3/4 of the way, so I'm glad I "macro pipped" it.

I'm up, have captured some moves and will end the week there. Double shot espresso #2 is calling for me...

Sounds good I like to see your development/progress. I try to tell traders about the process of growth in skill and emotion. This blog is a good example of what I have been through and have seen others need to go through.

[bb01100100]

Sounds good I like to see your development/progress. I try to tell traders about the process of growth in skill and emotion. This blog is a good example of what I have been through and have seen others need to go through.

Thanks, Alias. I've found that blogging my progress and setbacks has been immensely helpful.. the feedback and knowledge shared from everyone in this thread has really made a difference.

The process of writing up a short summary of each session helps to get perspective: I might start out wanting to write about how difficult the session was, but then realise I was simply ignoring the obvious right in front of my eyes!

Re-reading old entries where I'm consistent, consistent, consistent, then wipe out a week's profits has been sobering; as has a theme of being busy with retraces and minor noise, while missing the bigger move...

[bb01100100]

Eval accounts update:

Bulenox: Net +0.07%, 1.975% cumulative, target 6%
Apex: Net +0.45%, 3.686% cumulative, target 6%

I was up circa 0.33% on the main Bulenox account, but wanted to position long for a limit entry on the test of a prior hourly candle low.. I saw wicks and thought we might test those wicks and push higher. I disabled trade copying since this was an unusual trade for me and I was up on the Apex account.

Price exploded through and stopped me out within two seconds. Lesson learned - next time I'll watch and see what happens rather than setting pending orders ahead of time.

I spent the rest of the session buying consolidation and trading retraces long, but this market was not turning around. It wasn't until just before 4pm ET that we got a push higher (towards my magic VWAP line, heh).

Overall a session of two halves for me:
- first half: good trading
- second half: experiment that failed followed by several recovery trades with mixed results.

I need to address my fear of working with the higher timeframe bias as it's messing with my performance. This is similar to my other recent posts: I get busy with retraces but don't get involved with the continuations.

On a day like today I want to trade the Asian session... I'm attached to that lost PnL and I want to 'get it back'. This is a terrible idea.. so I'm writing it here: I'm coming back tomorrow fresh - no trading until circa 3pm ET tomorrow.

[bb01100100]

Eval accounts update:

Bulenox: Net +0.31%, 2.295% cumulative, target 6%
Apex: Net +0.36%, 4.07% cumulative, target 6%

This was another challenging session.. I saw the market was bid, but there was a wall of sellers / large seller absorbing the bids.. I flip flopped around positioning for a break higher but got stopped out several times..

Reviewing my fills, I realise that after I scaled in long for a break higher, I didn't manage my risk properly - there was an opportunity scale out of the trade as price pushed lower, which would have cut the size of my biggest loser in half.

My other mistake was having a stop where other people were entering.. I got stopped out within 2 ticks of a pullback extreme.. better to have been stopped out 2pts higher and reassess.

What was fascinating was that after 4PM the large seller departed and price exploded up through the highs.. I wasn't part of that push because there was a substantial push lower (towards day session vwap!) before the pop higher.

I did enter and scalp out two small size shorts on the "over extension" which got me flat for the session.

In hindsight I could have been a range trader this session with a long bias and scalped a couple of points here and there, instead of being a position scalper.

However, today I worked with the bias and feel better for doing so.

Given the sound rejection of higher prices after 4pm, I thought Asia might open and continue that probe lower; so I got short on a retrace and rode a lonely 1x lot for 9.25 points. That gave me an opportunity to watch the pullback and then enter short again with 4x lots and a tight stop for a retest of the lows. I scaled out at first stall (2 pts) and am finished for the day.

[bb01100100]

CFD account update:

I was stopped out of my corn trade, but overall my scaling in and out netted me an 11.5% return, which is pretty neat.

I've been reading Elaine Kub's book on "mastering the grain markets" and it has been very insightful: how the farmers, grain elevators, processors etc. will buy and sell, hedge via derivatives (futures, options) and trade huge size without taking on the spectacular volatility that frequently occurs.

This is a very deep subject with a huge amount of real-world, fundamental factors. I learned a little about how basis works and is used as a consistent discount/premium to the "flat price", which illustrated the idea that the actual price is often not the primary concern.

If I were a machine learning guy I'd be working on assembling a very broad range of datasets and looking for relationships that drive price during different "regimes" and seasons...

But before I do any of that, I need to learn how to create a spread chart in SierraChart Small steps.

[bb01100100]

Eval accounts update:

Bulenox: Net +0.355%, 2.665% cumulative, target 6%
Apex: Net +0.31%, cumulative 4.39%, target 6%

Fairly cautious trading for me this session; quite a few 1 lot trades as I was concerned I might be entering too soon.. once things looked solid I'd add another 1 lot.. Average trade distance was about 2 points.. I had one 3pt and one 4.75pt trade which was good to participate in.

Finishing now since I'm wary of losing perspective and eroding the gains.

[aliassmith]

Eval accounts update:

Bulenox: Net +0.355%, 2.665% cumulative, target 6%
Apex: Net +0.31%, cumulative 4.39%, target 6%

Fairly cautious trading for me this session; quite a few 1 lot trades as I was concerned I might be entering too soon.. once things looked solid I'd add another 1 lot.. Average trade distance was about 2 points.. I had one 3pt and one 4.75pt trade which was good to participate in.

Finishing now since I'm wary of losing perspective and eroding the gains.

Keeping it nice and cool. Did you get another account?

[bb01100100]

Eval accounts update:

Bulenox: Net +0.355%, 2.665% cumulative, target 6%
Apex: Net +0.31%, cumulative 4.39%, target 6%

Fairly cautious trading for me this session; quite a few 1 lot trades as I was concerned I might be entering too soon.. once things looked solid I'd add another 1 lot.. Average trade distance was about 2 points.. I had one 3pt and one 4.75pt trade which was good to participate in.

Finishing now since I'm wary of losing perspective and eroding the gains.

Keeping it nice and cool. Did you get another account?

Not yet.. but I'm keen, heh..

[bb01100100]

Eval accounts update:

Bulenox: Net +0.17%, 2.83% cumulative, target 6%
Apex: Net +0.25%, 4.65% cumulative, target 6%

A session of two halves for me: I got short just after 3pm and traded 2 lots for about 5 points / 0.25% gain.. but then got chopped up twice as I positioned for a push up out of consolidation that didn't happen.
There was a big seller who needed to sell and it wasn't until 3:45 that some buying volume came in; I got long 3x, then added 3x and scaled out within 4 points as it started to stall.

I was happy to be up for the session and did not get involved with the close.

My ongoing development task: rewriting my brain to work with the bias, especially when a large player is relentlessly pushing the market one way. I'm never happy selling the lows or buying the highs, but I need to find a way to execute on that when the market conditions call for it. I should probably do some sim replay trading this weekend...

I did get two more 50k Apex accounts on discount, which I'll run in the background. I have mixed feelings on whether I'm getting ahead of myself by doing that; but it's also a strong incentive to trade as well as I can.

I'm interested to see how Asia opens.. we've had two rejections of the 4150 area during the US session, so perhaps an opportunity for some upward movement (back towards my magical VWAP line, lol).