Daily analysis from FXOpen

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Market Analysis: Oil Surges to a New High of the Year



As the chart shows, the day before yesterday, a barrel of WTI cost USD 87.87, but this morning, the price exceeded the level of USD 93. That is, the growth was more than 6% in just 2 days.

The main driver of such growth remains the voluntary reduction in oil production by OPEC+ countries. Added to this was the market's reaction to yesterday's news about the reduction in oil reserves in the United States (expected = -0.7 million barrels, actual = -2.2 million). Inventories are approaching historical lows, according to Reuters. Probably, the US authorities, by releasing oil from storage, are trying to reduce the impact of its high price on inflation, but the graph shows that these efforts are unlikely to give the desired result.



The A->B decline in oil prices observed since September 19 was merely a correction (shown in red) within a longer-term uptrend (shown in blue). Wherein:

-> the price sharply pushed off from the lower border of the blue channel around 87.5 - we wrote about this scenario earlier;
-> after a short respite, it broke through the median line of the red channel at around 90.25;
-> confidently overcame the level of 91.35, where growth clearly slowed down 10 days ago when approaching point A;
-> exceeded the upper limit of the red channel.

Now it is important for the bulls to gain a foothold at the achieved highs around USD 93. But if the upward impulse has not exhausted itself, then we may witness continued growth towards the upper border of the blue channel.

On the other hand: overbought market, the desire to lock in profits from long positions before the weekend, a possible reaction at the level of statements from the US authorities — all these can become factors contributing to the formation of a correction (for example, to the median line of the blue channel).



This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: Gold Price Accelerates Lower, Crude Oil Price Dips



Gold price is moving lower below the $1,885 support. Crude oil price is now correcting gains and trading below the $92.00 support.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• · Gold price failed to clear the 1,915 resistance and moved lower against the US Dollar.
  
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,865 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices are now correcting lower below the $92.00 zone.
  
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $92.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price struggled to settle above the $1,915 resistance. The price started a fresh decline below the $1,900 pivot level.

The price traded below the $1,885 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $1,858 zone. A low is formed near $1,857.71 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is now struggling below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,915 swing high to the $1,857 low.



There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,865. The next major resistance is near $1,870, above which the price could test the 50-hour simple moving average at $1,880.

The next major resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,915 swing high to the $1,857 low at $1,892. An upside break above the $1,892 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,915. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,930 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,858 level. The first major support is near the $1,850 level. If there is a downside break below the $1,850 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,832 support.


This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: Gold Price Accelerates Lower, Crude Oil Price Dips



Gold price is moving lower below the $1,885 support. Crude oil price is now correcting gains and trading below the $92.00 support.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

• · Gold price failed to clear the 1,915 resistance and moved lower against the US Dollar.
  
• A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $1,865 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
  
• Crude oil prices are now correcting lower below the $92.00 zone.
  
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near $92.50 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price struggled to settle above the $1,915 resistance. The price started a fresh decline below the $1,900 pivot level.

The price traded below the $1,885 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. It tested the $1,858 zone. A low is formed near $1,857.71 and the price is now consolidating losses. It is now struggling below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,915 swing high to the $1,857 low.



There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,865. The next major resistance is near $1,870, above which the price could test the 50-hour simple moving average at $1,880.

The next major resistance is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,915 swing high to the $1,857 low at $1,892. An upside break above the $1,892 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,915. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,930 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,858 level. The first major support is near the $1,850 level. If there is a downside break below the $1,850 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,832 support.


This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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XAG/USD Analysis: Silver Price Quickly Drops by Approximately 7.5%


On Friday, silver was trading at USD 23.5 per ounce, but on Monday morning it dropped below USD 21.7 – a difference of 7.5%.

Fundamental influencing factors are not clearly identified, but it can be assumed that the sharp drop was facilitated by:

-> the fact that a shutdown of US government agencies was avoided, since the authorities reached a budget agreement – albeit a temporary one;
-> high yield on bonds;
-> at the end of the Q3, the long-term portfolios of large market participants were rebalanced.

Factors could put pressure on gold (it also shows a negative trend, falling below USD 1,850 per ounce for the first time since March of this year), and more volatile silver rushed after gold.

Technical analysis adds more information about the nature of the fall. In mid-July, we wrote that the price of gold had approached the upper limit of the long-term downward channel (shown in yellow), from which resistance could be expected.

However, the strength of demand was exhausted earlier, around the level of USD 25 per ounce, it turned out to be an unbearable barrier for the bulls, which is noticeable in the price action in July and August.



But what next?

Bearish arguments:

-> a long upper shadow on the Friday candle indicates strong selling pressure;
-> the price has dropped below the median line of the long-term yellow channel – now it can act as resistance (after serving as support in September);
-> resistance may also come from the median line of the red channel, where the psychological level of USD 23 per ounce also passes.

Bullish arguments:

-> the psychological level of USD 21 can provide support;
-> also in this area there is the lower border of the red channel;
-> after a sharp drop, the market looks oversold, and if sellers want to take profits, this should bring positivity to the price action.

The level of 21.30, which dates back to March, also looks strong. The emergence of fundamental factors could add more weight to it.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Top 5 Stocks to Watch in October: Bank on the Backfoot, No Thirst for Coca-Cola, Tech Giant Takes Dip and Electric Vehicle Volatility


October is here, and as the markets enter a new month, we take a closer look at five stocks that could be of significant interest to investors.

1) Bank of America

Bank of America stock has taken a dive over the past weeks and entered October on a low point. Down from the high of $29 on September 14 to the mid $26 range at the close of business on the first trading day of October, it is now at its lowest point in six months. Yesterday, Bank of America stated that capitulation is a likely event when discussing the possibility of big drawdowns in October, and the sentiment of investors is reflected in these reduced share values. The company's CEO has said this week that he believes there will not be a recession, therefore giving rise to some investor confidence across the US markets.

2) Baidu Inc.

The Hong Kong-listed division of China's giant internet company has also been on the back foot over the past month. Its shares have decreased over the month between the beginning of September and today by just over 10%. A small spike occurred at the end of September in which they began to regain some lost ground, but this was short-lived, and today, Baidu stock is trading at 129.70 HKD per share compared with 134 per share yesterday. Overall, Baidu is a stalwart; therefore, it is an evergreen stock worth watching.

3) Harley-Davidson

It may be coming toward the end of the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, but Harley Davidson, the world's oldest continually operating motorcycle manufacturer, has been maintaining ground. The company sells a range of high-end motorcycles, along with branded merchandise, as its name is more of a household name, which people, not all of whom are necessarily motorcyclists, like to be associated with. Hence, its product range is saleable all year round. Harley-Davidson stock has been volatile recently, beginning modestly at the beginning of last month and spiking twice in September, once on September 6 and then again on September 14, before resting at just over $32 per share at the end of September. Harley-Davidson has made a name for itself as a pioneer of electric motorcycles in recent years, so it has the EV trend covered, as well as a long and faithful following in general.

4) Lucid Group

Remaining on the electric vehicle theme, but this time with four wheels, Lucid Group, a producer of luxury electric cars, has been growing in value over the past week. At the end of September, Lucid Group shares began rising from $5.17 on September 26 to $5.54 at the close of the New York session on October 2. That is a rise of 7.16% in five days. Lucid has managed to carve out a niche for itself in its domestic market, along with some following in Canada, but has no presence at all in Europe, whose roads are full of Tesla models and European electric and hybrid luxury cars. Lucid made a slow start but is now growing its market share, and its volatile stock movements are a case in point.

5) Coca Cola

Perhaps the most recognised brand name in any sector in the entire world, Coca-Cola is an evergreen corporate giant in all nations globally. An interesting movement has occurred with its stock, however. Coca-Cola stock has been decreasing in value for many months, and at the end of September, moving into the beginning of this month, it took a very sharp drop to $55.48, placing it at its lowest value in six months and second lowest in an entire year. The summer months have been warm, and people like cold soft drinks; however, competition is very high these days.

Conclusion

Although no predictions have indicated an imminent recession, even venerable and long-established brands like Bank of America, Harley-Davidson, and Coca-Cola, each boasting a history of over a century, have recently seen a decline in their stock performance.

The start of October is an interesting one. Will it be a minor downward blip, or will these giants begin to recover ground?

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Tumbles While USD/JPY Seems Unstoppable


EUR/USD remained in a bearish zone and declined below 1.0530. USD/JPY is again rising and might climb toward the 150.00 level.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today

• The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0530 support zone.
  
• There is a short-term bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.0475 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/JPY climbed higher above the 148.00 and 148.75 levels.
  
• There was a rejection noticed near a bearish trend line at 150.15 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair remained in a bearish zone below the 1.0650 level, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The Euro declined below the 1.0530 support zone against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below the 1.0500 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low is formed near 1.0448 and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, the pair is now facing resistance near a short-term bearish trend line at 1.0475.



The next key resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0617 swing high to the 1.0448 low at 1.0485.

A clear move above the 1.0485 level could send the pair toward the 1.0530 resistance. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.0617 swing high to the 1.0448 low. An upside break above 1.0530 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.0615.

If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.0450. The next key support is at 1.0420. If there is a downside break below 1.0420, the pair could drop toward 1.0380. The next support is near 1.0335, below which the pair could start a major decline.



This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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WTI Oil Analysis: Price Falls 10% in Less Than a Week


In our article “Oil Analysis: Finally, A Bearish Reversal?” on September 21, we drew attention to emerging signs that the initiative was shifting to the bears. This was noticeable in the changes in the dynamics of impulses and corrections, as well as in the analysis of the interaction between trading volumes and prices.

Since then, the bulls were able to update the high of the year on September 28, but the price did not stay there for long, falling sharply in the following days. Three bearish candles formed on the chart, which confirmed the problems of the bulls, and the double top pattern (A-B) also became relevant.

Another principle of technical analysis that emphasized the dominance of supply over demand is that each upward move was approximately 2 times weaker than the downward move. This can be seen in the consistent structure characteristic of a bearish trend:

-> the C->D move is approximately 50% of the B->C bearish momentum;

-> the rebound from the median line of the ascending channel E->F is approximately 50% of the bearish impulse D->E;

-> the bounce from the (now former) support line 87.50 G->H is approximately 50% of the bearish momentum F->G.




Yesterday, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that supplies of finished motor gasoline, reflecting demand, fell to about 8 million barrels per day, the lowest since the beginning of this year. The news contributed to the formation of a new bearish impulse, which broke through the ascending channel (shown in blue).

It is possible that another I->J rollback will follow. If so, then the formation of top J may be facilitated by resistance from the level of 87.50, the lower border of the ascending channel and the 50% Fibo level.


This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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USD/JPY Analysis: Psychological Level Changes the Price Sharply


On Tuesday, the US dollar rose above the psychological level of 150 for the first time since October 2022 before falling sharply to a low of 147.30 as the yen rose.

The media are discussing whether this movement confirms the fact of intervention on the part of the Japanese authorities.

On the one hand, there are opinions that the yen's movement on Tuesday was much smaller (about 1.7%) than when the authorities intervened last year (the change was about 4%) to support the yen.

On the other hand, there are no clear explanations about the reasons for the sharp movement - except as a manifestation of the authorities’ interest in preventing excessive weakening of the national currency. Perhaps only about the influence of psychology when reaching and short-term exceeding the round figure - an effect that, by the way, is characteristic of the cryptocurrency market.



What are the possible scenarios for further development in the USD/JPY market?

Bullish arguments:

-> The price is within the uptrend (shown by the blue channel). Tuesday's move expanded it on a parallel channel basis. A sharp rebound from the lower boundary indicates the strength of demand.
-> After a sharp impulse, the price found support at the former resistance level of 148.4.

Bearish arguments:
-> When approaching the level of 150 yen per US dollar, psychological factors may again come into play. The memory of Tuesday's sharp momentum, reinforced by the broader momentum of last year, will keep market participants from expecting prices to rise above the round level.
-> It is acceptable to assume that the median line of the channel will now pose an obstacle if the price rises to it.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: GBP/USD Starts Recovery While USD/CAD Corrects Lower


GBP/USD started a recovery wave from the 1.2040 zone. USD/CAD is correcting gains and trading below the 1.3700 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound is eyeing a fresh increase above the 1.2270 resistance.
  
• There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2180 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CAD rallied toward the 1.3800 level before it started a downside correction.
  
• A declining channel is forming with resistance near 1.3700 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair accelerated lower below the 1.2200 zone. The British Pound even traded below the 1.2120 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2040 zone. The pair is now attempting a recovery wave above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2120. There was a spike toward the 1.2270 resistance. A high has formed near 1.2261 and the pair is now consolidating gains.



There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2105 swing low to the 1.2261 high. The RSI moved below the 50 level on the GBP/USD chart and the pair is now approaching a major support at 1.2180.

There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2180. The trend line coincides with the 50-hour simple moving average and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2105 swing low to the 1.2261 high.

The next major support is 1.2120. If there is a break below 1.2120, the pair could extend the decline. The next key support is near the 1.2040 level. Any more losses might call for a test of the 1.2000 support.

On the upside, the pair might face resistance near 1.2200. The next resistance is near 1.2270. An upside break above the 1.2270 zone could send the pair toward 1.2350. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.2420.



This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: Bitcoin Price Cannot Stay above $28k


The first day of October coincided with the first attempt of the bulls to overcome the resistance level of USD 28,000 per coin, but on the 2nd of October, the sellers showed their presence. Since that time, the price has repeatedly exceeded the level of 28k, but each time not for long, after which a decline followed.

Yesterday, there was another such decline. As the BTC/USD chart shows today, the rate is around 27,600. And it seems that the bulls may no longer have the strength to make a new attempt.

Analyzing the bitcoin market on September 8, we pointed out a list of bearish arguments that give reason to doubt the positive prospects for bitcoin. The described price action of about 28k is another bearish argument in this list.


Moreover:

-> the growth of B->C is approximately 50% Fibo of the decline of A->B;
-> the top of early October provides more support for building a downward channel (shown in red). It is possible that the price may now move from its upper border to its lower border.

In the short term, longs can expect the rising trendline structure (shown in blue lines) to help push the price above the psychological USD 30k level. But, let’s say, if this does not happen, then the market will again fall to the key support zone of USD 25-25.5k. Will it be able to support bullish momentum for the third time (as it did in September and June)?

99-year-old Charlie Munger gives the hint. At October's Zoomtopia conference, he again railed against investing in digital assets, saying it was the "stupidest investment” because “most of those investments are going to zero.”


This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.