bakedbeans' learning journal

[aliassmith]

I keep looking at Apex, but will stick with a single large Bulenox account for the time being. When I pass, I might use that to fund something at Apex.. in the meantime my monthly fee for Bulenox is low (I got a 90% discount during one of their previous sales).

I would consider how you would trade an Apex and a Bulenox. Would you trade them separately? Will you want to copy trade them. If you want to copy trade consider the software/hardware that you will need.

I tried QuanTower and after I added over 5 accounts it started to not place orders. (Similar happened to two other people) If you want multiples of only 1 firm you can do that with ninjatrader and replikanto add on. I think I've seen you use Sierra charts, Im not familiar with their copying.

At this stage the idea of a “live” prop firm account that could fund my own larger futures account is what interests me the most.. I’m not aware of any futures prop firms that support multi-day swing trading… I would like the option to utilise different holding periods. CFD firms have swap rates that are very very expensive for weekly holds, as far as I can see.

I don’t intend to do copy trading, unless that is for some sort of family office setup, but that’s getting a little ahead of myself..

As someone who trades far more size than me and also does copy trading, do you think copy trading is a psychological crutch for avoiding coming to grips with the actual size being risked/won/lost? On the one hand I think it’s very innovative, but on the other I wonder if it makes us less robust…

I suppose this is an IF/ELSE list for running a business in the markets: IF prop gets regulated out of existence THEN I’ll trade that futures account I’ve been building up…. IF copy trading software unavailable or not allowed THEN I have the ability to trade a single large account…. IF leverage is slashed, THEN I’ll shift to options…

Hmmm… options… maybe I should think about options as a another vehicle for swing trading… then again theta has a somewhat similar effect as CFD swap on a going sideways trade… I’m going to stop here before I have any more ideas…

MightyOne liked 6 month options, should control some time loss.

Trading size can mess with the mind. Right now I trade Apex $25k account linked to my others. All I think about is that 1 account.

Trading size can also be a blessing and a curse depending how your mind thinks about money. If you are trading 10 contracts and looking at $500 DD some people might freak and make poor decisions. Depends on your own personal relationship with money.

[aliassmith]

Bulenox eval account update:

+0.30% for the day, 1.63% cumulative, target 6%.

I saw the market post a new low, twice, which had me down for the day, but I entered and added getting slightly green a price pushed upward back towards the hourly open.

Price congested near the top of a prior swing high, so I positioned myself for a short, exiting on a spike down as we approached 4pm. Glad I didn't push for more as price then moved up, broke the swing high and finished 8 points higher.

Thats nice and steady. 0.33% a day, or about 7% a month. Sounds good to me.

[IgazI]

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/cour ... rview.html

[aliassmith]

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/understanding-futures-spreads/futures-spread-overview.html

You must be MightyOne alter ego.

[bb01100100]

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/understanding-futures-spreads/futures-spread-overview.html

That’s very timely, thank you. I’ve been interested in spreads for quite a while, but don’t feel I have a solid macro grasp to express a view on.

Last night I happened to come across a discussion on another futures trading discord server where the copper/gold ratio was said to be used by metals traders as a leading indicator of interest rates, and wondered if you use similar ratios/relationships.

I thought the idea was quite neat since copper demand appears to be strongly correlated with real world economic activity (building/making stuff). I live in Australia, so copper and iron ore exports is part of the economic news reporting.

Here is a link to a talk by Adam Robinson, and starting at 1hr 34m he talks about that ratio:

https://youtu.be/SUPSBDcMGTE?si=YWbi_Q12jUAs-6d4

I haven’t heard of this person before so don’t know if he’s solid or not, but he ranks five groups of traders in terms of which is a more effective leading indicator for predicting interest rates: metals traders, bond traders, equity traders, oil traders and currency traders.

Initially I was surprised that currency traders would be a poor leading indicator for rates, since the rate is strongly a function of risk free rate, but until such time as a rate change happens, actual on-the-ground currency exchange still needs to occur. I find this kind of structural information interesting, although it has no bearing on how I make money at this stage.

[bb01100100]

Bulenox eval account update:

Net for the day: -0.22%, cumulative: 1.4%, target 6%.

I was long and wrong as price pulled steadily back, back, back from the high.
There was a double bottom formed in the last couple of minutes of the session but I wanted to avoid being runover in a last minute spike, so sat it out.

Was this good trading? It was mixed - I didn't chase price when it broke out to the upside; but when I got long on a retrace and congestion I used fairly wide stops and didn't tighten them up.
Still - I've taken a modest loss instead of a big loss and I'll be back tomorrow.

[bb01100100]

EUR/JPY swing trade update:

Solid push lower to just below 157, so I've exited 2/3 of my position. Stops tightened to breakeven above momentum bar and target for remaining position brought closer in case we get another push down this week.

IF retrace to 157.50 I'll add a half unit
IF retrace to 157.80 I'll add another half unit
IF push down to 156.15 I'll exit the position and await further pattern formation.

2023-09-15-EURJPY.jpg (80.61 KiB) Viewed 1157 times

Was this dumb luck? Maybe. I lost confidence but stayed in the trade based on what wasn't happening: price wasn't closing above the congestion zone (upper red line where my stop is now) and price wasn't closing above the high of that momentum bar to the left (the one that opens just above the upper green entry price line).

Excluding the open position, net banked profit is 7.3%.
Financing over the holding period represent a cost of 7.188%
So my gross return of 14.48% had financing costs of 7.188% leaving me with a net closed profit of 7.3%.

Swing trading with a CFD broker / Oanda (at least the way I've done it) simply doesn't make economic sense. When I exit the entire position that will conclude swing trading with this broker - I'll look to do something similar on my small futures account.

[Dillinger]

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/understanding-futures-spreads/futures-spread-overview.html

You must be MightyOne alter ego.

yep and if he starts talking about legging into them...

[IgazI]

https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/understanding-futures-spreads/futures-spread-overview.html

You must be MightyOne alter ego.

This doesn't make any sense. . .
did he invent spreads? is he the only one allowed to use them?

And are you guys so completely unaware that you don't know that legging into spreads is how professionals trade them.

[bb01100100]

Bulenox eval account update:

Net +0.49% for the day, 1.9% cumulative, 6% target.

Traded the post 3pm range; got in at range lows once I'd seen some congestion forming and traded to near recent swing high areas. Using the hourly bars as reference points and M1 for execution and targets, etc.

I'm away for the next couple of weeks - see you again in early October.