bakedbeans' learning journal

[Don_xyZ]

Thanks Don; those scalps look well-reasoned and are fearless - inspiration for me.
I'll try some M1 scalps with MES tomorrow in my next session. I'll need to adjust my eyes - I've become quite used to my 4500 volume charts on ES.


Today I took the time to zoom out, and could see a rising channel; so I saw we had an upward bias but were neither at the upper or lower side of that range; so I watched. I had to double check the calendar to make sure there wasn't a US holiday - it was very very quiet and hesitant.

2023-07-18-ES-bigger-picture.jpg

The vertical green line was when I started observing.

After it looked as though we'd rejected the channel high, I got short, looking for a reasonable 3pt scalp to test the prior momentum bar and touch the MA.

2023-07-18-ES.jpg

That worked out well; netted 2.75 pts after it stalled.

I was hesitant to go long since I thought we might get another leg down into the channel, but price was hesitant to go down, so I entered long and had a stop below the prior candle low. I calculated if I was stopped out I'd still have some profit for the day so thought I'd let it run back up to highest yellow line - about 3 pts upward.

Price was very hesitant.. in retrospect I should have been more patient and committed to the possibility of the trade simply not working out.. but after two upper wicks I thought it best to exit for 3 ticks and see what happened next. I didn't want to be on the wrong side at 3pm NY when there is often a burst of volume.. What happened next was a melt up.

After that I thought it best to observe rather than speculate, so I sat on my hands. I managed to bank some profit for the day, avoided over-trading and netted 5.2% with max open loss of 1.17%.

I realise that I'm very /slow/ to see patterns: I marked up the green boxes long after the fact, realising belatedly that yes, there were some very nice shorts available as we pulled back to the MA and started to make lower highs and lower lows.

Edit: I took a 1pt scalp at the start of the Asian session, finishing today at 4.5 points / 6.63%.

Next steps:

• M1 MES scalping
• Practice seeing (the patterns)
• Practice doing (fluid, fearless entries)
• Practice waiting (for exits, for good entries)

Oh, already far better and faster result, no? Great job there!

[bb01100100]

Thanks Don; those scalps look well-reasoned and are fearless - inspiration for me.
I'll try some M1 scalps with MES tomorrow in my next session. I'll need to adjust my eyes - I've become quite used to my 4500 volume charts on ES.


Today I took the time to zoom out, and could see a rising channel; so I saw we had an upward bias but were neither at the upper or lower side of that range; so I watched. I had to double check the calendar to make sure there wasn't a US holiday - it was very very quiet and hesitant.

2023-07-18-ES-bigger-picture.jpg

The vertical green line was when I started observing.

After it looked as though we'd rejected the channel high, I got short, looking for a reasonable 3pt scalp to test the prior momentum bar and touch the MA.

2023-07-18-ES.jpg

That worked out well; netted 2.75 pts after it stalled.

I was hesitant to go long since I thought we might get another leg down into the channel, but price was hesitant to go down, so I entered long and had a stop below the prior candle low. I calculated if I was stopped out I'd still have some profit for the day so thought I'd let it run back up to highest yellow line - about 3 pts upward.

Price was very hesitant.. in retrospect I should have been more patient and committed to the possibility of the trade simply not working out.. but after two upper wicks I thought it best to exit for 3 ticks and see what happened next. I didn't want to be on the wrong side at 3pm NY when there is often a burst of volume.. What happened next was a melt up.

After that I thought it best to observe rather than speculate, so I sat on my hands. I managed to bank some profit for the day, avoided over-trading and netted 5.2% with max open loss of 1.17%.

I realise that I'm very /slow/ to see patterns: I marked up the green boxes long after the fact, realising belatedly that yes, there were some very nice shorts available as we pulled back to the MA and started to make lower highs and lower lows.

Edit: I took a 1pt scalp at the start of the Asian session, finishing today at 4.5 points / 6.63%.

Next steps:

• M1 MES scalping
• Practice seeing (the patterns)
• Practice doing (fluid, fearless entries)
• Practice waiting (for exits, for good entries)

I would be fine with net 4.5 points on ES each day and never be mad. Nice work. $250/contract, pretty sure you can trade 20+ contracts at a time without order fill issues.

In hindsight I see several opportunities per session to net 1.5 to 3 points per trade with reasonable targets. If I can couple that with consistent execution and avoiding (now less frequent) bouts of costly stubbornness, I might have a shot of slowly growing my lot size up to the 20 contract mark. That would be a significant milestone.

But first: eyes open, ego aside, 1-lots.

[bb01100100]

Today I focussed on the 1min chart and found it very challenging... net I am -4.75 points down but I feel I learned a lot and have much to think about.

I found that I would net a couple of points, then be wrong several times, then get another couple of points with a winner, but overall I was only 35% profitable. My stats tell me I netted 2.74 points on average for winners and lost 1.68 points on average for losers.

Largest winner 3.82 points, largest loser 2.34 points - so I wasn't being stubborn.

Here' the summary of the fill chart attached:

• We essentially had an up market and I lost consistently on long trades (10 out of 17 trades were long)
• I felt I misread the price action several times - #1 on the chart is where I saw price stall, so exited my long; then price retraced which I interpreted as weakness so went short; then got stopped out. A common theme is that my stops are probably too far away for this chart..
• I was long when that big pin bar happened (stops firing I believe) but it retraced very quickly - sadly my limit exit order was at the exact high (4pts from entry); would have been mere luck if hit, anyway.
• I would set a stop entry short, get stopped in (#2 on the chart), but this was merely a retrace on an up move. Perhaps I should have respected the prior area of consolidation and not expected a retest.
• The market did retest that consolidation area at #1 on the chart - I profited on the way down, but got stopped out by 1 tick on my long. Got back in and traded up to zline, so was about 3 points up at this stage.
• I trailed a stop entry long down a little as the market pulled back again (#3 on the chart) but lost my nerve as price went one-way up (not fast, but deliberately). Interestingly the trade I was looking for was a measured move of 6 pts - the size of the prior swing. Instead I saw weakness and got short, then stopped out. Sucked in to the noise!
• I got churned a few more times near the highs, maybe 2-3 points down; then caught a nice short down and was sitting 1.25 points up.
• I observed for a while and was keen to short at #4 but lost my nerve.. which is a shame since there was a solid 2 point trade there and the possibility of another 2 points as it breached prior swing low.
• I made several attempts at buying the low but was wrong as we headed into the close, so stopped myself for the day.

Fills - green triangles are longs; red triangles are shorts (apologies if it's hard to read).

2023-07-19-ES-m1-fills.jpg (166.69 KiB) Viewed 1206 times

What have I learned:

• Almost every large wick (3 ticks or larger) candle was a profitable entry point with a 1:1 RR when trading away from the wick... I count about 11 winners and 4 losers in this session with a net of about 5-6 points. That's old news on this site, but I find it interesting to see first hand.
• Getting wicked in to trades as a zline is tested looks far more profitable - at least a point better per trade in terms of entry price. It also looks to allow for tighter stops.
• A fearless soul might combine these things.. entry on wick with small stop + second entry on prior candle open price... interesting. Ideal case is that you're wrong on half the size and when you're right you have size on.

I don't feel at this point that I've got the perception to see the wick entries, but clearly the evidence shows the power of this approach. This needs to be part of my development.

Here is a chart showing what I'm referring to - yellow line is entry after candle with a 3+ tick wick. Choice of entry price is determined by prior candle colour and trade direction (e.g. enter at prior candle close or open).

2023-07-19-ES-m1-wick-in-direction-of-loss.jpg (92.42 KiB) Viewed 1206 times

Next steps:

• Get involved again tomorrow - watch out for those wicks, shoot for 1:1
• Try some wick entries with tighter stops, e.g. 3 ticks.
• Don't over think it.

[kiwiarian]

Today I focussed on the 1min chart and found it very challenging... net I am -4.75 points down but I feel I learned a lot and have much to think about.

I found that I would net a couple of points, then be wrong several times, then get another couple of points with a winner, but overall I was only 35% profitable. My stats tell me I netted 2.74 points on average for winners and lost 1.68 points on average for losers.

Largest winner 3.82 points, largest loser 2.34 points - so I wasn't being stubborn.

Here' the summary of the fill chart attached:

• We essentially had an up market and I lost consistently on long trades (10 out of 17 trades were long)
• I felt I misread the price action several times - #1 on the chart is where I saw price stall, so exited my long; then price retraced which I interpreted as weakness so went short; then got stopped out. A common theme is that my stops are probably too far away for this chart..
• I was long when that big pin bar happened (stops firing I believe) but it retraced very quickly - sadly my limit exit order was at the exact high (4pts from entry); would have been mere luck if hit, anyway.
• I would set a stop entry short, get stopped in (#2 on the chart), but this was merely a retrace on an up move. Perhaps I should have respected the prior area of consolidation and not expected a retest.
• The market did retest that consolidation area at #1 on the chart - I profited on the way down, but got stopped out by 1 tick on my long. Got back in and traded up to zline, so was about 3 points up at this stage.
• I trailed a stop entry long down a little as the market pulled back again (#3 on the chart) but lost my nerve as price went one-way up (not fast, but deliberately). Interestingly the trade I was looking for was a measured move of 6 pts - the size of the prior swing. Instead I saw weakness and got short, then stopped out. Sucked in to the noise!
• I got churned a few more times near the highs, maybe 2-3 points down; then caught a nice short down and was sitting 1.25 points up.
• I observed for a while and was keen to short at #4 but lost my nerve.. which is a shame since there was a solid 2 point trade there and the possibility of another 2 points as it breached prior swing low.
• I made several attempts at buying the low but was wrong as we headed into the close, so stopped myself for the day.

Fills - green triangles are longs; red triangles are shorts (apologies if it's hard to read).

2023-07-19-ES-m1-fills.jpg

What have I learned:

• Almost every large wick (3 ticks or larger) candle was a profitable entry point with a 1:1 RR when trading away from the wick... I count about 11 winners and 4 losers in this session with a net of about 5-6 points. That's old news on this site, but I find it interesting to see first hand.
• Getting wicked in to trades as a zline is tested looks far more profitable - at least a point better per trade in terms of entry price. It also looks to allow for tighter stops.
• A fearless soul might combine these things.. entry on wick with small stop + second entry on prior candle open price... interesting. Ideal case is that you're wrong on half the size and when you're right you have size on.

I don't feel at this point that I've got the perception to see the wick entries, but clearly the evidence shows the power of this approach. This needs to be part of my development.

Here is a chart showing what I'm referring to - yellow line is entry after candle with a 3+ tick wick. Choice of entry price is determined by prior candle colour and trade direction (e.g. enter at prior candle close or open).

2023-07-19-ES-m1-wick-in-direction-of-loss.jpg


Next steps:

• Get involved again tomorrow - watch out for those wicks, shoot for 1:1
• Try some wick entries with tighter stops, e.g. 3 ticks.
• Don't over think it.

It took me a while to find out some examples of what it meant by bodies show the ways, this pic helped me .
images_cache/i39.tinypic.com__33bflf9.gif
I like your examples, very clear examples thanks.

[IgazI]

It took me a while to find out some examples of what it meant by bodies show the ways, this pic helped me .
images_cache/i39.tinypic.com__33bflf9.gif
I like your examples, very clear examples thanks.

Can you plot candles, moving in an up-trend, without bodies closing higher?

Bodies show the way. . .

price cannot rise (trend) on wicks.

[kiwiarian]

It took me a while to find out some examples of what it meant by bodies show the ways, this pic helped me .
images_cache/i39.tinypic.com__33bflf9.gif
I like your examples, very clear examples thanks.

Can you plot candles, moving in an up-trend, without bodies closing higher?

Bodies show the way. . .

price cannot rise (trend) on wicks.

100% agree, closes show the way

[bb01100100]

Asian update.. traded 6J (USD/JPY) on 1 minute, applying some of my learnings from this morning..

1. Take profits
2. Keep stops close by
3. Wait it out until price action says otherwise

Do this netted me the equivalent of 2 points in the ES, bringing my loss down to circa 2.75 points.

Need more practice, but calling it a day - back for the next US PM session.

(I'm late sending this update - I thought I hit send an hour ago, but must have clicked 'preview' instead. There has been a nice breach of the lows in the hour or so - not traded by me unfortunately.)

[bb01100100]

It took me a while to find out some examples of what it meant by bodies show the ways, this pic helped me .
images_cache/i39.tinypic.com__33bflf9.gif
I like your examples, very clear examples thanks.

Can you plot candles, moving in an up-trend, without bodies closing higher?

Bodies show the way. . .

price cannot rise (trend) on wicks.

100% agree, closes show the way

Thanks Kiwiarian & Igazi.

I was struggling with this on the M1 charts... there was a nice spike down (but not closing below prior consolidation).. followed by solid buying.. not fast, but deliberate.

In hindsight - body in direction of profit; wick in direction of loss.. but pulling the trigger in real time was another thing altogether.

2023-07-19-6J-m1-buy-the-darn-thing.jpg (110.49 KiB) Viewed 1130 times

First ellipsis I was thinking "that looks solid.. wonder whether it will pull back or not?"
Second ellipsis I was thinking "buy it!" & "what if it retraces?"

I paid for my fear by sitting out of a solid 1:1 RR 5 tick trade.

In the Asian session when I watch USD/JPY sometimes, it does like to breach a previous extreme then reverse.

Igazi - I just adjusted that top line to be 15' and price just touched it at the swing high - the magic prevails!

[kiwiarian]

forcefield1.JPG (23.97 KiB) Viewed 1098 times

You talked about momentum bars earlier, Oliver had a nice way of showing how the power bars provide a forcefield of resistance or support. In the first few mins of his video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnMFiZpX6Jo&t=45s

[kiwiarian]

Oliver showcasing 5min EU 20MA and 200MA and highlighting the wicks as propulsion.

oliver-eu.JPG (37.04 KiB) Viewed 1094 times