bakedbeans' learning journal

[Don_xyZ]

Stayed up late to trade after NFP release instead of getting early, netted 1.2% on ES, one loser and one winner. I could have let that run longer, but pleased that I managed my risk and captured some of the sell off after the initial push higher.

I also traded 10yr futures (main focus) and captured about 6.5 full ticks on that as it bulldozed its way lower, there was at least another 4 full ticks on offer there so I need to practice sitting on my hands.

I need to work out a clean way of getting stats out of Sierra chart and into my pnl tracker for both ES and ZN. I’m flat for the week on ES and up about 4.7% on ZN.

In retrospect a week of lost opportunities due to failing to observe and follow my plan, but I have course corrected and recognise the need to build the positive connections in my brain/heart/stomach whereby I observe, see, act and move on.

Thanks Don for reminding me that if I’m losing more and more then something is very very very wrong. That was a catalyst for me to think hard about what I was doing and why I was doing it.

Always glad to help.

[bb01100100]

Notes to self in preparation for next week:

• consider every small stop-out or exit as being a gift that stops me going 5%+ offside.
• small losses are a gift!

I forget the specific term, but in game theory trading is an infinite/continuous process, so the optimal strategy requires not being knocked out of the game. If I think about my June results, I averaged 0.75% per trading day return, which added up to a good capital buffer of 10%.

Some reminders of things as well…

• Structure -> bias
• “Something” tests -> line in the sand / zline entry with defined if/then logic
• Close against / stop out -> gift! Observe and stay patient. Brain rewiring challenge.
• Trade in profit -> sensible target means sitting on hands. Brain rewiring challenge.

[bb01100100]

Interesting day.. I stayed up late to trade the US treasuries open and then stock market open.. very different price action to the US afternoon session.

I was investigating whether I wanted to shift from US PM to US pre open + open but I don't think I can get enough sleep for that to be viable.

I traded ZN and netted a tick and a half after going offside and then sitting on my hands as price crawled up. Treasuries are fascinating... the inertia and /slow/ momentum are interesting especially when watching on the DOM.. the size that trades on each price without anyone blinking is.. encouraging. I watched 1766 contracts hit the offer yesterday during the Asian session in what looked like a stop-out (236 trades making up the 1766 volume) and it was completely absorbed by the offer - didn't shift a single half tick. Neat. Anyway, net $44 on ZN.

I traded MNQ because I was looking at how it moved around compared to ES, lost fairly heavily on that. Several instances of "oh it's up, nice; oh it's flat; i wonder if... oh, i'm stopped out". I can see how getting to know that instrument well would pay off if you keep the risk limited. Net -$130, mostly due to setting overly wide stops without thinking hard about what that meant for my account if they got hit. Cost of experimentation. Might look at that for Asia session, but not sure. I don't want to get distracted on too many things.

I traded MES and found the price action a little bizarre - it couldn't seem to find follow-through and sat in a 6 pt range, moving in fits and starts. I suspected one of those classic "oh no I can't, oh no I can't" up moves in ES where it does nothing and looks weak then just plows through the highs and stops everyone out, so I was positioned for that, but eventually I realised it was unlikely to happen.

I upped my size and worked the range several times - an exercise in patience and not getting sucked in to movement. Once it moved down out the range it was past midnight my time and I was wary, so I called it a day. Net +$147

While I like the idea of participating in the potentially aggressive market opens, I can't stay up to scalp them.

I needed to grind my way out of the hole a couple of times, but all in I finished $61.30 / 1.44% up.

Reading through the various threads I see a number of traders here lift weights.. The risk gearing / parlay model reminded me of weight progression plans that have a de-load element: increase, increase, increase, de-load, ... repeat.

Interesting that what works in nature (progressive overload) has a parallel in trading. (I'm not a weight lifter).

[bb01100100]

Good US PM session today; bias short, entered short at stall with slightly larger size (4x MES) and scaled out at stall points / zline tests.

Saw price retrace 50%+ of prior 3-hour candle, stall, push a little lower and then move up again, looked like a long opportunity but instead of jumping in I waited to be wicked in.

2023-07-12-MES.jpg (115.86 KiB) Viewed 1455 times

My last trade was a 3 tick scalp which lasted about 5 seconds; I had seen that a prior (validated, i think) high on my chart had been breached, so I was working now on the idea of a long bias. My little scalp was all well and good but my focus should have been on zline retest with a long.. I was put off by the 12k+ contracts that traded making a series of dojis.. I thought we'd get a deeper pullback. Plus we were just on 3PM NY which often brings some liquidity which pushes solidly in a direction.

Anyway; good session; Net $93.22 / 2.1%

[bb01100100]

Traded ZN during Asian session for 1.5 ticks and then waited for CPI release in my evening.

I observed as the bonds rallied and set a high then pulled back and back, finally entering where I saw support (large bids coming in and absorbing) but I was too early and had my top hit - essentially closed out at the low, for a 3 tick loss. doh.

Wanted to enter on a retrace as price ground higher, but no such retrace happened until circa 09:15 ET / 23:15 my time. Worked my way back as price ranged before the US open, finishing 2 full ticks up on ZN after commissions.

2023-07-12-ZN.jpg (69.53 KiB) Viewed 1414 times

Net $68.41, 1.55%.

[Don_xyZ]

Don't spread it too thin. Not good for you.

Pick 1 or max 2 trading instruments for trading. If possible, 1 market, 1 trading strategy, 1 time frame, 1 trading session.
Much less headache. Scouring the markets for a trading opportunity is to be avoided if you're trying to become an effective trader.
Will save a lot of mental power (trading will drain you a lot, psychologically speaking).
Will keep your health/ stamina for much longer (you want to be in this game for many, many years).
Do not, never, try to catch everything that moves.
Capital readiness. There will be times when you need more capital to bank on a "sure" move. Of course, there is nothing 100% guaranteed in this game but there are times when the probability is so high they (the market) is begging you to not miss the opportunity.

Just for consideration.

[bb01100100]

That's timely advice, Don - thank you.

I have made a mess of the last two days - in the case of today I didn't believe that USD/JPY would go up (despite clear upward bias that I ignored) and got stubborn, added size, got stubborn... That cost me a lot of money relative to my small account and made me question my mental fitness. I have been feeling pretty raw today, to be honest.

Prior to making this entry (confession) and seeing your comment, I had already decided to revert to ES only, during US afternoon and committing to trading with the bias.

For bias, I look at higher timeframe higher highs & higher lows and see things like "we're going up" and "the prior low is 'confirmed' because the market has closed above the prior high"; and vice versa for downward trending markets. That gives me a bias and a place at which I can recognise a change in bias, if there is one.

Don, do you think if I focus only on the one timeframe (for me it has been using 4500 volume charts on ES) will I still be effective in determining a bias? I was using the 60min chart for that, so am not sure if i'll be whipped about more if using my trading chart instead... Given I scalp for 2-4 pts at a time this probably isn't much of a concern.

I suppose I just need to try it and see how I go.

Thanks for taking time to share your thoughts and wisdom - it's much appreciated.

[Don_xyZ]

That's timely advice, Don - thank you.

I have made a mess of the last two days - in the case of today I didn't believe that USD/JPY would go up (despite clear upward bias that I ignored) and got stubborn, added size, got stubborn... That cost me a lot of money relative to my small account and made me question my mental fitness. I have been feeling pretty raw today, to be honest.

Prior to making this entry (confession) and seeing your comment, I had already decided to revert to ES only, during US afternoon and committing to trading with the bias.

For bias, I look at higher timeframe higher highs & higher lows and see things like "we're going up" and "the prior low is 'confirmed' because the market has closed above the prior high"; and vice versa for downward trending markets. That gives me a bias and a place at which I can recognise a change in bias, if there is one.

Don, do you think if I focus only on the one timeframe (for me it has been using 4500 volume charts on ES) will I still be effective in determining a bias? I was using the 60min chart for that, so am not sure if i'll be whipped about more if using my trading chart instead... Given I scalp for 2-4 pts at a time this probably isn't much of a concern.

I suppose I just need to try it and see how I go.

Thanks for taking time to share your thoughts and wisdom - it's much appreciated.

Trading is mostly about timing.
You can have bullish bias on the big and entry tf but can still squeeze some pips/points from the chart.
Yes, you can.
Pro and IgazI has been going on about this for pages and pages with no end.

Questions are:

are you brave enough?
are you skilled enough?
do you have the mental fortitude to pull this stunt?

I got the ss perfect just for you coz some of these trades have only 1 to 2 pips target:

UJ D1.jpg (37.27 KiB) Viewed 1304 times

As you can see, there is really no bullish bias yet on the D1.

UJ H1.jpg (36.72 KiB) Viewed 1304 times

But the H1 is screaming "BUY! BUY! BUY!"

Meaning, there is no clear bias or conformity between the backbone tfs. What would you do?

As for me, I scalp the market like so:

M1 entries.jpg (39.99 KiB) Viewed 1304 times

After a couple of losses, I switched to NO SL mode
And another more up to a couple of minutes before the raging bulls take over:

M1 entries 2.jpg (35.11 KiB) Viewed 1304 times

Some of those trades are pip-based scalp (small target) others are time-based scalp (1 or a few M1 candles).
These things take time to master. But, you WILL get there! Picture yourself where you want to be in the future. Believe that you will be able to take those trades. See yourself taking those trades. These will be your mantra! This is the mental exercise that most tutors don't have the science to teach.

Focusing on 1 pair, 1 tf, 1 session, 1 trading method will gift you the greatest gift of all... the "Intimacy" with that pair, that tf, that session, that trading method. Without even realizing it, you'll be able to "read into the future" up to a certain point of what will the price do when it enter a certain market condition and draw up from your trading muscle the appropriate scenario to deal with it. After you pass this stage, then, only then, you are allowed to expand your WIL to trade more pair, more tf, more sessions, more trading methods.

Bruce Lee said "I'm not afraid of someone who practiced 10,000 kicks once but I'm afraid of someone who practice 1 kick 10,000 times" or something to that effect. But, he himself has many different types of kicks on top of punches and grappling and choking and other devastating forbidden blows.

There are stuff in this post alone that you can add in your WIL. Expand it!

[kiwiarian]

That's timely advice, Don - thank you.

I have made a mess of the last two days - in the case of today I didn't believe that USD/JPY would go up (despite clear upward bias that I ignored) and got stubborn, added size, got stubborn... That cost me a lot of money relative to my small account and made me question my mental fitness. I have been feeling pretty raw today, to be honest.

Prior to making this entry (confession) and seeing your comment, I had already decided to revert to ES only, during US afternoon and committing to trading with the bias.

For bias, I look at higher timeframe higher highs & higher lows and see things like "we're going up" and "the prior low is 'confirmed' because the market has closed above the prior high"; and vice versa for downward trending markets. That gives me a bias and a place at which I can recognise a change in bias, if there is one.

Don, do you think if I focus only on the one timeframe (for me it has been using 4500 volume charts on ES) will I still be effective in determining a bias? I was using the 60min chart for that, so am not sure if i'll be whipped about more if using my trading chart instead... Given I scalp for 2-4 pts at a time this probably isn't much of a concern.

I suppose I just need to try it and see how I go.

Thanks for taking time to share your thoughts and wisdom - it's much appreciated.

Trading is mostly about timing.
You can have bullish bias on the big and entry tf but can still squeeze some pips/points from the chart.
Yes, you can.
Pro and IgazI has been going on about this for pages and pages with no end.

Questions are:

are you brave enough?
are you skilled enough?
do you have the mental fortitude to pull this stunt?

I got the ss perfect just for you coz some of these trades have only 1 to 2 pips target:

UJ D1.jpg
As you can see, there is really no bullish bias yet on the D1.

UJ H1.jpg
But the H1 is screaming "BUY! BUY! BUY!"

Meaning, there is no clear bias or conformity between the backbone tfs. What would you do?

As for me, I scalp the market like so:
M1 entries.jpg

After a couple of losses, I switched to NO SL mode
And another more up to a couple of minutes before the raging bulls take over:
M1 entries 2.jpg

Some of those trades are pip-based scalp (small target) others are time-based scalp (1 or a few M1 candles).
These things take time to master. But, you WILL get there! Picture yourself where you want to be in the future. Believe that you will be able to take those trades. See yourself taking those trades. These will be your mantra! This is the mental exercise that most tutors don't have the science to teach.

Focusing on 1 pair, 1 tf, 1 session, 1 trading method will gift you the greatest gift of all... the "Intimacy" with that pair, that tf, that session, that trading method. Without even realizing it, you'll be able to "read into the future" up to a certain point of what will the price do when it enter a certain market condition and draw up from your trading muscle the appropriate scenario to deal with it. After you pass this stage, then, only then, you are allowed to expand your WIL to trade more pair, more tf, more sessions, more trading methods.

Bruce Lee said "I'm not afraid of someone who practiced 10,000 kicks once but I'm afraid of someone who practice 1 kick 10,000 times" or something to that effect. But, he himself has many different types of kicks on top of punches and grappling and choking and other devastating forbidden blows.

There are stuff in this post alone that you can add in your WIL. Expand it!

Another gold post thanks.
Those 1 minute trades are just based off the closes if its higher or lower I am presuming?

[Don_xyZ]

That's timely advice, Don - thank you.

I have made a mess of the last two days - in the case of today I didn't believe that USD/JPY would go up (despite clear upward bias that I ignored) and got stubborn, added size, got stubborn... That cost me a lot of money relative to my small account and made me question my mental fitness. I have been feeling pretty raw today, to be honest.

Prior to making this entry (confession) and seeing your comment, I had already decided to revert to ES only, during US afternoon and committing to trading with the bias.

For bias, I look at higher timeframe higher highs & higher lows and see things like "we're going up" and "the prior low is 'confirmed' because the market has closed above the prior high"; and vice versa for downward trending markets. That gives me a bias and a place at which I can recognise a change in bias, if there is one.

Don, do you think if I focus only on the one timeframe (for me it has been using 4500 volume charts on ES) will I still be effective in determining a bias? I was using the 60min chart for that, so am not sure if i'll be whipped about more if using my trading chart instead... Given I scalp for 2-4 pts at a time this probably isn't much of a concern.

I suppose I just need to try it and see how I go.

Thanks for taking time to share your thoughts and wisdom - it's much appreciated.

Trading is mostly about timing.
You can have bullish bias on the big and entry tf but can still squeeze some pips/points from the chart.
Yes, you can.
Pro and IgazI has been going on about this for pages and pages with no end.

Questions are:

are you brave enough?
are you skilled enough?
do you have the mental fortitude to pull this stunt?

I got the ss perfect just for you coz some of these trades have only 1 to 2 pips target:

UJ D1.jpg
As you can see, there is really no bullish bias yet on the D1.

UJ H1.jpg
But the H1 is screaming "BUY! BUY! BUY!"

Meaning, there is no clear bias or conformity between the backbone tfs. What would you do?

As for me, I scalp the market like so:
M1 entries.jpg

After a couple of losses, I switched to NO SL mode
And another more up to a couple of minutes before the raging bulls take over:
M1 entries 2.jpg

Some of those trades are pip-based scalp (small target) others are time-based scalp (1 or a few M1 candles).
These things take time to master. But, you WILL get there! Picture yourself where you want to be in the future. Believe that you will be able to take those trades. See yourself taking those trades. These will be your mantra! This is the mental exercise that most tutors don't have the science to teach.

Focusing on 1 pair, 1 tf, 1 session, 1 trading method will gift you the greatest gift of all... the "Intimacy" with that pair, that tf, that session, that trading method. Without even realizing it, you'll be able to "read into the future" up to a certain point of what will the price do when it enter a certain market condition and draw up from your trading muscle the appropriate scenario to deal with it. After you pass this stage, then, only then, you are allowed to expand your WIL to trade more pair, more tf, more sessions, more trading methods.

Bruce Lee said "I'm not afraid of someone who practiced 10,000 kicks once but I'm afraid of someone who practice 1 kick 10,000 times" or something to that effect. But, he himself has many different types of kicks on top of punches and grappling and choking and other devastating forbidden blows.

There are stuff in this post alone that you can add in your WIL. Expand it!

Another gold post thanks.
Those 1 minute trades are just based off the closes if its higher or lower I am presuming?

Yes. Dots originally.