bakedbeans' learning journal

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Re: bakedbeans' learning journal

Postby bb01100100 » Fri Jun 30, 2023 8:49 pm

A piece of research I need to do... separately from my scalping here...

Problem statement: given the US session tends to move the greatest number of points during a 24 hour cycle, what mechanical entry and exit techniques would capture some part of that move and provide positive expectancy without significant drawdown?

Things I'm think about:
  • market structure as framework for bias
  • window of time for range breakout (entry)
  • London news, Treasury open, US open
  • Mid afternoon (NY time) press statements / FOMC etc
  • Capturing over-extensions
  • time exits, price exits
  • stall exits

Rationale for thinking about this:
  • Funded trader swing accounts
  • Second engine for delivering returns, ideally non correlated with scalping (but probably not the case due to structure bias)
  • Something I could teach my child

I'm wary of needing to spend six months writing an algo to achieve this, so ideally it's 10-20 mins a day of some basic measuring and calculations followed stop order entry. That would preclude any clever if/then/else reversal logic, but that's ok since we're trading with a bias and we're patient.

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Re: bakedbeans' learning journal

Postby chappy » Sat Jul 01, 2023 8:17 am

Yep,I cant add anything to that .If I were trading on 1min there may have been more entries but 5min is my go to chart. And yes I am trying to take the MACD crosses, divergence is nice but not required . Seems you grew 10% in 13 days ? That beats a yearly money market goal ...great !... :smt023

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Re: bakedbeans' learning journal

Postby chappy » Sat Jul 01, 2023 9:01 am

Screenshot 2023-07-01 2.58.12 AM.png
Screenshot 2023-07-01 2.58.12 AM.png (121.72 KiB) Viewed 1659 times

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Re: bakedbeans' learning journal

Postby Don_xyZ » Sun Jul 02, 2023 12:46 pm

chappy wrote:Screenshot 2023-07-01 2.58.12 AM.png

That HA is so hypnotizing :shock:
I might have to try to put it on my chart again.
Is your MACD on default settings?
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Re: bakedbeans' learning journal

Postby chappy » Sun Jul 02, 2023 9:28 pm

Don_xyZ wrote:
chappy wrote:Screenshot 2023-07-01 2.58.12 AM.png

That HA is so hypnotizing :shock:
I might have to try to put it on my chart again.
Is your MACD on default settings?

Yes Sir ..default

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Re: bakedbeans' learning journal

Postby bb01100100 » Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:29 pm

Down today - had clearly defined bias short since prior significant 1hr low was breached and netted 1.5% on a clear zline test and move lower; but got drawn into the weeds later.

I was also annoyed at a 1lot short I did as price pulled back to the SMA - I had a 2.25pt stop which was zapped but nothing showed on the chart - price didn't get within 2pts of my stop.

Anyway, I shorted the retrace from lows, was wrong; shorted near the high and started a war of attrition as I tried to position myself for another push down. There was a nice 2.5-3pt push down which was completely retraced, so I thought "we're not going lower, we're going to take out the highs" and that's where I got stubborn.

I ended up having a series of loser trades, net results were:

  • PnL: -$107.99, -2.66%
  • Max DD: $-293.98, -7.23%

In retrospect:
  • Although I was 1.5% up, I pushed myself to take another trade as doing so is a mental challenge for me
  • I was unsettled by my stop being taken out with no price action to back it up
  • I got in to "get it back" mode, which was silly.
  • I forgot about the bias and should have looked for a high breach and retest before getting in long - until then I should have been looking short.
  • I also imagined an end-of-session rally into the highs but that was hopium and not trading what I see.

In other news I've been looking at the ZN / 10 year treasury futures contract.. there are some small moves during the Asian session which might allow me to put on a day long trade at a reasonable location. I might trade this separately to my ES scalping.

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Re: bakedbeans' learning journal

Postby Don_xyZ » Thu Jul 06, 2023 5:56 am

bb01100100 wrote:Down today - had clearly defined bias short since prior significant 1hr low was breached and netted 1.5% on a clear zline test and move lower; but got drawn into the weeds later.

I was also annoyed at a 1lot short I did as price pulled back to the SMA - I had a 2.25pt stop which was zapped but nothing showed on the chart - price didn't get within 2pts of my stop.

Anyway, I shorted the retrace from lows, was wrong; shorted near the high and started a war of attrition as I tried to position myself for another push down. There was a nice 2.5-3pt push down which was completely retraced, so I thought "we're not going lower, we're going to take out the highs" and that's where I got stubborn.

I ended up having a series of loser trades, net results were:

  • PnL: -$107.99, -2.66%
  • Max DD: $-293.98, -7.23%

In retrospect:
  • Although I was 1.5% up, I pushed myself to take another trade as doing so is a mental challenge for me
  • I was unsettled by my stop being taken out with no price action to back it up
  • I got in to "get it back" mode, which was silly.
  • I forgot about the bias and should have looked for a high breach and retest before getting in long - until then I should have been looking short.
  • I also imagined an end-of-session rally into the highs but that was hopium and not trading what I see.

In other news I've been looking at the ZN / 10 year treasury futures contract.. there are some small moves during the Asian session which might allow me to put on a day long trade at a reasonable location. I might trade this separately to my ES scalping.


Making money feels great.
Losing money when you did everything correctly sometimes can't be avoided.
Losing money due to doing something wrong, especially "revenge trading"... go back to Psychology 101.

Losing trade happens even to cream-of-the-crop trader. Numb yourself.
But if you're losing too much, then there is something really, really, really wrong about your trading.
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Re: bakedbeans' learning journal

Postby bb01100100 » Thu Jul 06, 2023 11:36 am

Yes, I need to trade what is in front of me instead of what I imagine is there / project is going to happen.

I’ve been mulling over why I fail to perform consistently, even with a solid method that I like, believe in and want to use.

Part of the problem is jumping the gun and part is some kind of issue with being distracted by the price action noise.

Jumping the gun:
- first trade today was a textbook zline test entry - I waited for a deep retrace and got an excellent position in a market moving down, netted circa 8 points
- second trade I hit sell because price retraced back up to the SMA, no turn or pusher lower. No patience and it cost me about 0.25%

Distracted by the noise:
- being short, then being long but forgetting the directional bias I had (which played out later in the session)
- no longer trading any of the setups I should have been waiting for

I need to get up tomorrow morning and make sensible trading choices.
- Only trade with my bias
- Only take entries that are valid setups (zlines and momentum breaks)

I can say these things but I’ve got to find a way to /do/ these things.

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Re: bakedbeans' learning journal

Postby bb01100100 » Thu Jul 06, 2023 8:54 pm

Ok a better day today. I made an attempt to observe and wait more, looking for good entries and avoiding getting sucked into the noise.

I was gun shy with MES today and it showed in me pulling trades very quickly. However the quality of my entries was significantly better.

Early on I dithered with a zline retest in line with the SMA and missed a very good trade, but at least I identified the good opportunity. I kept watching for another half hour and reminded myself when price stalled near the highs that, no, that wasn't a short opportunity.
After price came off and tested the zline high I made a small 3 tick short, which got me under way for the day and gave me a small cushion of profit. With more confidence that would have been 9-12 ticks.

Later price pushed down below the up-trending SMA, tested a prior (up-swing) momentum bar zline, then made a pin-bar, so I went long after the pinbar low was tested (with a 4 tick stop) but lost my nerve again, exiting early and missing a sensible 2.5pt/10 tick trade. Again, at least it was validation that patience sets up quality trades.

I was up a little, so dropped down to trading 1 lots and made a couple of nice scalps (2 pts) along with a 3pt loser.

Results for MES:
  • PnL $37.06 / 0.94%
  • Max DD -$15.26, max open loss -$25
  • Pct winners 81%

I'm also trading 1-2 ZN contracts in the Asian / early UK session but I'll keep those stats out of here for the time being since I predominantly use the DOM for that.

Lessons learned: observe more and when the opportunity arises enter the trade with confidence and let it work out either way.

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Re: bakedbeans' learning journal

Postby bb01100100 » Fri Jul 07, 2023 9:18 pm

Stayed up late to trade after NFP release instead of getting early, netted 1.2% on ES, one loser and one winner. I could have let that run longer, but pleased that I managed my risk and captured some of the sell off after the initial push higher.

I also traded 10yr futures (main focus) and captured about 6.5 full ticks on that as it bulldozed its way lower, there was at least another 4 full ticks on offer there so I need to practice sitting on my hands.

I need to work out a clean way of getting stats out of Sierra chart and into my pnl tracker for both ES and ZN. I’m flat for the week on ES and up about 4.7% on ZN.

In retrospect a week of lost opportunities due to failing to observe and follow my plan, but I have course corrected and recognise the need to build the positive connections in my brain/heart/stomach whereby I observe, see, act and move on.

Thanks Don for reminding me that if I’m losing more and more then something is very very very wrong. That was a catalyst for me to think hard about what I was doing and why I was doing it.

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