Patterns Observation.

[Don_xyZ]

just chart.png (44.05 KiB) Viewed 1771 times

Roughly 22R total.

[Yirbu]

just chart.png
Roughly 22R total.

Nice. I also like the entry.
Simple and very effective

[Yirbu]

This morning I took these trades.
They went quite well.
Trade #1 and #2 bounced on a level but with trade #3 I waited to see if the level would break.
Took partials at a logical place and closed it when I felt price was going up again.

Unfortunately I missed the complete move up and subsequent downmove because I was on the phone.
Probably, I would not have taken the move up because I did not know how to enter (I hope I do now) but I would have been in that move down for sure.
Trade #4 failed so I figured that if price wasn't going up it would reach for the next level so I could also trade it down. #5

The trades I did take gave me about 20R
They are not the nicest or prettiest trades but I am super happy.

221101 - EURUSDM1.png (175.9 KiB) Viewed 1747 times

[Don_xyZ]

After an unusual movement of the price, I suspected something and concluded that there would be a drop sometime tonight. And it did drop. 36R. So it's 58R today. Gotta crash.

just chart 2.png (41.39 KiB) Viewed 1706 times

Don't normally trade til this late but the suspicion is too strong to ignore. Price still have a chance to drop further but it's enough for me for today. After the price moved enough, I BE the positions.

[kiwiarian]

After an unusual movement of the price, I suspected something and concluded that there would be a drop sometime tonight. And it did drop. 36R. So it's 58R today. Gotta crash.

just chart 2.png

Don't normally trade til this late but the suspicion is too strong to ignore. Price still have a chance to drop further but it's enough for me for today. After the price moved enough, I BE the positions.

Good catch. What were the culprits that tipped you off before that move down? I suspect you are going to use the words "had a feeling" in your answer but thought I would ask anyhow

[Don_xyZ]

Yes, gut feeling is real. It's something that can only be forged over the years. It also means a lot of things. The market is easy to read:

WIL to take away:
1. Greed shows. We have a lot of people trying to push price into one direction.
2. Anxiety shows. You will see too many dojis and price can only creep up or down.
3. Fear shows. When liquidity dries off you will see the price moving into a hectic state, price will shoot up or down in a matter of 1 or 2 ticks.
4. As liquidity dries, price will move even faster up and then down and up repeatedly even faster than #3.
5. Uncertainty shows. Spread will widen as price discovery is becoming more intense. Nobody wants to be on the wrong side of whatever is coming!
6. Onlookers won't understand. Yes, if you just look you won't get it. Try to enter a trade, if you can get in easy then it's not yet near. If it's getting harder to get AND get out then you know it's too late or the risk is getting bigger (and so is the potential reward).
7. Time bomb is ticking! The longer and tighter the range is (rectangle or triangle or channel pattern) the stronger the price will fly or drop later on. Tight patterns have explosive nature!
8. You MUST be there to see this before it happens. When looking at dead chart, you won't know all of these things. If you look at bigger tf, you also won't know all of this stuff. See it, feel it, experience it.
9. BAAAAM! There it goes.
10. The only way to make money is to get in early before the move start or get in while the race is on

Clues from bigger tf, H1.
Price was "here" (1st violet box) once before and stalled although not for too long. And then it came back and stalled again but this time it's much longer. When it came back for the 3rd time you can already see the hesitation in the form of too many doji candles. The last two are pinbar with the latest one (16:00 candle) rejected right off the highest high of the London session and the entire day.

Nov. 1, 2022.png (70.87 KiB) Viewed 1638 times

You see how tight the channel is while creeping up? Red box is the critical point. The expectation is for the price to come down but apparently it went up for a bit to take out the buyers off the high of the day.

Nov. 1, 2022 zoomed in.png (64.06 KiB) Viewed 1638 times

All of this is gut feeling. Only difference is, I can explain it better than them
There is a lot more to it but this covers it for now.

[kiwiarian]

Yes, gut feeling is real. It's something that can only be forged over the years. It also means a lot of things. The market is easy to read:

WIL to take away:
1. Greed shows. We have a lot of people trying to push price into one direction.
2. Anxiety shows. You will see too many dojis and price can only creep up or down.
3. Fear shows. When liquidity dries off you will see the price moving into a hectic state, price will shoot up or down in a matter of 1 or 2 ticks.
4. As liquidity dries, price will move even faster up and then down and up repeatedly even faster than #3.
5. Uncertainty shows. Spread will widen as price discovery is becoming more intense. Nobody wants to be on the wrong side of whatever is coming!
6. Onlookers won't understand. Yes, if you just look you won't get it. Try to enter a trade, if you can get in easy then it's not yet near. If it's getting harder to get AND get out then you know it's too late or the risk is getting bigger (and so is the potential reward).
7. Time bomb is ticking! The longer and tighter the range is (rectangle or triangle or channel pattern) the stronger the price will fly or drop later on. Tight patterns have explosive nature!
8. You MUST be there to see this before it happens. When looking at dead chart, you won't know all of these things. If you look at bigger tf, you also won't know all of this stuff. See it, feel it, experience it.
9. BAAAAM! There it goes.
10. The only way to make money is to get in early before the move start or get in while the race is on

Clues from bigger tf, H1.
Price was "here" (1st violet box) once before and stalled although not for too long. And then it came back and stalled again but this time it's much longer. When it came back for the 3rd time you can already see the hesitation in the form of too many doji candles. The last two are pinbar with the latest one (16:00 candle) rejected right off the highest high of the London session and the entire day.
Nov. 1, 2022.png

You see how tight the channel is while creeping up? Red box is the critical point. The expectation is for the price to come down but apparently it went up for a bit to take out the buyers off the high of the day.
Nov. 1, 2022 zoomed in.png


All of this is gut feeling. Only difference is, I can explain it better than them
There is a lot more to it but this covers it for now.

Cheers for the reply, that's next level analysis, sounds like you are almost zen with the chart. Quite different to the rest of us chumps strategy hopping and currency pair switching.
So when it's close to taking off, for those test orders, would buys and sells be equally as hard to place, or is it one sided depending on which way it might take off?

[Don_xyZ]

Yes, gut feeling is real. It's something that can only be forged over the years. It also means a lot of things. The market is easy to read:

WIL to take away:
1. Greed shows. We have a lot of people trying to push price into one direction.
2. Anxiety shows. You will see too many dojis and price can only creep up or down.
3. Fear shows. When liquidity dries off you will see the price moving into a hectic state, price will shoot up or down in a matter of 1 or 2 ticks.
4. As liquidity dries, price will move even faster up and then down and up repeatedly even faster than #3.
5. Uncertainty shows. Spread will widen as price discovery is becoming more intense. Nobody wants to be on the wrong side of whatever is coming!
6. Onlookers won't understand. Yes, if you just look you won't get it. Try to enter a trade, if you can get in easy then it's not yet near. If it's getting harder to get AND get out then you know it's too late or the risk is getting bigger (and so is the potential reward).
7. Time bomb is ticking! The longer and tighter the range is (rectangle or triangle or channel pattern) the stronger the price will fly or drop later on. Tight patterns have explosive nature!
8. You MUST be there to see this before it happens. When looking at dead chart, you won't know all of these things. If you look at bigger tf, you also won't know all of this stuff. See it, feel it, experience it.
9. BAAAAM! There it goes.
10. The only way to make money is to get in early before the move start or get in while the race is on

Clues from bigger tf, H1.
Price was "here" (1st violet box) once before and stalled although not for too long. And then it came back and stalled again but this time it's much longer. When it came back for the 3rd time you can already see the hesitation in the form of too many doji candles. The last two are pinbar with the latest one (16:00 candle) rejected right off the highest high of the London session and the entire day.
Nov. 1, 2022.png

You see how tight the channel is while creeping up? Red box is the critical point. The expectation is for the price to come down but apparently it went up for a bit to take out the buyers off the high of the day.
Nov. 1, 2022 zoomed in.png


All of this is gut feeling. Only difference is, I can explain it better than them
There is a lot more to it but this covers it for now.

Cheers for the reply, that's next level analysis, sounds like you are almost zen with the chart. Quite different to the rest of us chumps strategy hopping and currency pair switching.
So when it's close to taking off, for those test orders, would buys and sells be equally as hard to place, or is it one sided depending on which way it might take off?

No, lolz

When you go with bigger tf you have the leniency to trade several different currency pair.
You might be able to get in but watch the slippage and depending on your size you might get more headache.
In general though, it's gonna be harder than usual to get in at your price or you get in with slippage due to the speed of price moving up and down. If you put pending order then you might get it or price will just go past your order and no fill. Also, never ignore warnings from your broker. If it's anything huge, the broker will know it in advance.

[Don_xyZ]

Going into my killzone, I saw a potential for a channel creeping up. So I drew a line from point 1 to point 2 and then copy that line and put it on point 3. I drew another object, a fib to mark my TP. Right after the killzone start price went to the line I put on point 3 (marked a on the chart) and this is where it gets interesting because price came back up to b.

everything was perfect but.png (64.41 KiB) Viewed 1524 times

I had in mind that we are in an uptrend channel so I was looking for some kind of a pattern and sure enough there was a potential lower grade double top starting to form. I put my pending order (buy stop) on that tight bearish candle and after price couldn't make a new low it took my order up. Unfortunately, the order got SL-ed. So I opened a new order up as the morphing from DB to IH&S started taking shape. Target was the upper trend line (black box). TP was hit but then, another one started forming. Using the same logic of pattern anticipation, I entered the market but this time I got killed 2x. The first one due to the very tight SL (that the market gave) and then the 2nd is due to the spread. Fortunately, the 3rd position had a smooth sail. Target was the lower channel. However, the target did not get hit and I had to settle it for much less. I closed it when the price came back half way of the box size. This time, I'm not gonna try to catch a running train because:

1. price did not go tap the lower TL.
2. price already touch the top and bottom TL several times so I was anticipating that the price might make a breakout south soon.

From this point onward I was only gonna focus on getting in at the top because my anticipation is price will fall hard seeing how the price behave and yesterday's crash. So I got another opportunity to enter the market and this time it's a DT. Price could not make a new high. I held onto this trade and it got BE because I moved my SL to BE earlier.

everything was perfect but (zoomed in).png (82.25 KiB) Viewed 1524 times

For the next trades I was using fractal because there is no pattern and price is moving faster away from the top TL. It got killed. And then I entered another one using the same logic. Also got killed lolz
The 3rd position is the charm and it was moving down smooth..... until that big a$$ green candle crushed it super lolz I was already sleeping when that happen.

everything was perfect but (zoomed in) 2.png (64.34 KiB) Viewed 1524 times

everything was perfect but (zoomed in) 4.png (48.06 KiB) Viewed 1524 times

everything was perfect but (zoomed in) 3.png (48.13 KiB) Viewed 1524 times

But, as you can see from H1 chart that eventually the market hit my intended TP @0.98103. Things happen in the market. Can't always get what you want

edit:
WIL:
1. if price previously went down and then the channel goes up it means the expectation is it will breakout to the south. This is obvious for those who learn western chart patterns.
2. the most common channel formation is 2 touches to the top TL (if price previously went down) or 2 touches to the bottom TL. I call it the Golden touch to differentiate them from the countertrend touches.
3. the touches could go more if the pattern is extended.
4. this is also called flat or correction.
5. with Golden touch the chance that the price will eventually go down increases.
6. patterns do fail.
7. patterns can morph along the way.
8. 1x morph is common but 2x or 3x times can also happen.
9. check higher tf for possible chart because patterns in pattern happen every day, especially with a M1, H1 and D1 combo.

[Yirbu]

Going into my killzone, I saw a potential for a channel creeping up. So I drew a line from point 1 to point 2 and then copy that line and put it on point 3. I drew another object, a fib to mark my TP. Right after the killzone start price went to the line I put on point 3 (marked a on the chart) and this is where it gets interesting because price came back up to b.
everything was perfect but.png

I had in mind that we are in an uptrend channel so I was looking for some kind of a pattern and sure enough there was a potential lower grade double top starting to form. I put my pending order (buy stop) on that tight bearish candle and after price couldn't make a new low it took my order up. Unfortunately, the order got SL-ed. So I opened a new order up as the morphing from DB to IH&S started taking shape. Target was the upper trend line (black box). TP was hit but then, another one started forming. Using the same logic of pattern anticipation, I entered the market but this time I got killed 2x. The first one due to the very tight SL (that the market gave) and then the 2nd is due to the spread. Fortunately, the 3rd position had a smooth sail. Target was the lower channel. However, the target did not get hit and I had to settle it for much less. I closed it when the price came back half way of the box size. This time, I'm not gonna try to catch a running train because:

1. price did not go tap the lower TL.
2. price already touch the top and bottom TL several times so I was anticipating that the price might make a breakout south soon.

From this point onward I was only gonna focus on getting in at the top because my anticipation is price will fall hard seeing how the price behave and yesterday's crash. So I got another opportunity to enter the market and this time it's a DT. Price could not make a new high. I held onto this trade and it got BE because I moved my SL to BE earlier.
everything was perfect but (zoomed in).png

For the next trades I was using fractal because there is no pattern and price is moving faster away from the top TL. It got killed. And then I entered another one using the same logic. Also got killed lolz
The 3rd position is the charm and it was moving down smooth..... until that big a$$ green candle crushed it super lolz I was already sleeping when that happen.
everything was perfect but (zoomed in) 2.png

everything was perfect but (zoomed in) 4.png

everything was perfect but (zoomed in) 3.png

But, as you can see from H1 chart that eventually the market hit my intended TP @0.98103. Things happen in the market. Can't always get what you want

edit:
WIL:
1. if price previously went down and then the channel goes up it means the expectation is it will breakout to the south. This is obvious for those who learn western chart patterns.
2. the most common channel formation is 2 touches to the top TL (if price previously went down) or 2 touches to the bottom TL. I call it the Golden touch to differentiate them from the countertrend touches.
3. the touches could go more if the pattern is extended.
4. this is also called flat or correction.
5. with Golden touch the chance that the price will eventually go down increases.
6. patterns do fail.
7. patterns can morph along the way.
8. 1x morph is common but 2x or 3x times can also happen.
9. check higher tf for possible chart because patterns in pattern happen every day, especially with a M1, H1 and D1 combo.

This is a very nice post. Thx Don.
There are so many things in here that are interesting for me.
Most important thing so far is that the price swings you look at are a bit bigger (or maybe the appropriate word is flexible) as I see them.
Next to that sometimes I tend to forget that it's ok to have a couple of trades going against me because you'll wipe out the losses later.