Patterns Observation.

If you don't know where to start, start here! Don't be afraid to ask questions.

Moderator: moderators

User avatar
Don_xyZ
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1163
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:15 am
Reputation: 1022
Gender: None specified

Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Don_xyZ » Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:43 am

Yirbu wrote:Managed to get this trade down. First I tried to trade it down in London but I couldn't get in.
When I tried to trade it back up again at the start of NY I got distracted and just got a 10 pips or so.

Finally got the trade I wanted after it took out the high of London.
Price printed a doji in that little congestion at the top.
Went short at the break of the doji with one part
Price created an imbalance.
When price (nearly) touched the imbalance I added a second part.

At 40ish pips and 40ish minutes I took profit
Happy with the result because I was eating up yesterday's profits but after this trade everything is fine again :D

EURUSD-42pips.png


That's good. The anchor trade setup shown is just about right.

The goal of an anchor trade is to take the tops and bottoms of a specific time range and hold the trade for a maximum result. The daily anchor trade uses intraday TP but the regular anchor trade uses multi-day TP. In the case of my previous version, the time range is the trading session's high and low. This could mean Asian's or European's or U.S. extreme high/low point. So your view of the anchor trade is correct in this sense.

However, let me tell you why I have since moved on from that view...

There are times when the price just go directly into one direction without even looking back. Guess what will happen when this kind of scenario appears? You get no anchor trade for the day. Of course you have the choice of using extreme points beyond the previous session(s) but the same question persists "What if the price also already moved beyond the session before the previous session?" Obviously, you will have no anchor trade.

The weakness of my anchor trade SD version.png
The weakness of my anchor trade SD version.png (36.82 KiB) Viewed 2694 times

The above scenario happens a lot during a strong trending market. But man, you don't wanna be left behind during this harvest time, right? I don't know about anyone's preference but I for sure don't want the price to leave me behind when I trade. Some say "don't try to catch a falling knife" and this is true but only for those who don't know how to do it. It's the same as "don't enter MMA ring if you don't know how to fight".

The weakness of my anchor trade FTR version.png
The weakness of my anchor trade FTR version.png (44.62 KiB) Viewed 2694 times

The second scenario happens during a sideways market. But a good trader must be able to make the most out of a bad scenario. It could be losing a little, BE, make money, or make a lot of money even during bad times.

I'm a scalper first and foremost and this is how I operate. edit: If you are the type who only does swing trading then it's fine for you to only go with the top down approach. I'm the type who do both scalping and swing trading but my swing trading comes from a scalping perspective and this is why I start from the smallest TF and then go up and down again.
Zoom in or zoom out.png
Zoom in or zoom out.png (24.26 KiB) Viewed 2694 times


Some of the reasons why I do both are:
1. if you only do swing trading, you must go from a big TF to make it worth it.
2. there are times when you don't get a trade or only get a handful of trade a week depending on which TF you're using.
3. when you don't trade but the market is open you are "wasting time" because you could've made money but you chose not to.
4. I trade only during specific period of time (from 09:00 or 10:00 to 16:00) because I don't want trading to dictate my life. I control when to trade not the trade opportunity dictate my time.
5. Trading (working) at specific time period makes me diligent in finding ways to exploit the market using various POV.


Most traders operate by using some hints from the market but what if you don't get any market hint at all?
With or without market hints.png
With or without market hints.png (13.48 KiB) Viewed 2694 times


Scenario 1 is what most traders are familiar with
Scenario 2 what do you do if the market just fall off after creating a hint?
Scenario 3 what if the price came back but there is no hint or did not touch the hint and then fall?
Scenario 4 what if the market just makes a sharp V or A shape without a market hint?
edit: personally, I want to be able to make a profit no matter what the market condition is as long as there is a good reason for it and also the target profit makes sense.

I don't know if the information from this post will be useful for any of you. Also as I always said before, I don't know how to teach.
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

Image

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
Don_xyZ
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1163
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:15 am
Reputation: 1022
Gender: None specified

Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Don_xyZ » Thu Oct 20, 2022 12:07 pm

Done for the day.
Good hustling today.
Can you guess which one is my daily anchor trade?

Done for the day chart..png
Done for the day chart..png (86.9 KiB) Viewed 2670 times
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

Image

Yirbu
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 632
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am
Reputation: 438
Location: Europe
Gender: Male

Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Yirbu » Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:58 pm

Don_xyZ wrote:
I don't know if the information from this post will be useful for any of you. Also as I always said before, I don't know how to teach.


What an extensive post. Thanks Don!
I am sure this post will help.
I'll need some time to digest it and think about al these points.

So far I have only been studying the reversal at the top/bottom of a session.
I'm hoping to master that one first. If price rallies on. That's fine. If I focus on everything in one go...my head will explode...(best case scenario)
This approach together with a deadhorse together with other stuff will prepare me for the markets better.

It's like you said (or something like this) if you go into an MMA ring with just one skill (yellow belt judo)...you just don't stand a chance.

Yirbu
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 632
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am
Reputation: 438
Location: Europe
Gender: Male

Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Yirbu » Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:10 pm

Don_xyZ wrote:Done for the day.
Good hustling today.
Can you guess which one is my daily anchor trade?

Done for the day chart..png


I would guess trade #5 and #6 for starters.
Hoping to wipe out the asian session

But #10; the last trade is the trade in between London en NY.
It seems that fractals forming just before or after NY open (or London) often turn out quite good.

Now what I would like to know is were you only trading long at that time or not and if so why did you choose the long side?
Did it have something to do with that FVG on the H1? Or what did you see/know that I don't?

Yirbu
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 632
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am
Reputation: 438
Location: Europe
Gender: Male

Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Yirbu » Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:29 am

This morning I tried a gold trade. Everything was going fine, bit of a deep retracement but price seemed to repsect my trendline.
Time to get some coffee. Guess 2 minutes is too long.... :shock:

XAUsmokedforgetting cofee.jpg
XAUsmokedforgetting cofee.jpg (219.14 KiB) Viewed 2585 times

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

User avatar
Don_xyZ
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1163
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:15 am
Reputation: 1022
Gender: None specified

Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Don_xyZ » Fri Oct 21, 2022 10:21 am

Fractals.

There are clear V, A shapes but then there are also the crooked versions. Fractals are not created equal.

When the crooked meets the normal.
Fractals.png
Fractals.png (53.94 KiB) Viewed 2554 times


But these are all patterns.

Done for the day. The first daily anchor trade (from the bottom left) did not yield that much as it failed to breach the struggle area on the way up so it had to be cut short. The bearish daily anchor survived and pulled in a lot of profit.

Daily anchor trades.png
Daily anchor trades.png (58.77 KiB) Viewed 2554 times


Enjoy your weekend, folks!
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

Image

Yirbu
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 632
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am
Reputation: 438
Location: Europe
Gender: Male

Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Yirbu » Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:19 pm

Don_xyZ wrote:Fractals.

There are clear V, A shapes but then there are also the crooked versions. Fractals are not created equal.

When the crooked meets the normal.
Fractals.png

But these are all patterns.

Done for the day. The first daily anchor trade (from the bottom left) did not yield that much as it failed to breach the struggle area on the way up so it had to be cut short. The bearish daily anchor survived and pulled in a lot of profit.

Daily anchor trades.png

Enjoy your weekend, folks!



That's a very interesting picture and something nice for me to study in the weekend. Thank you, you are very kind.
The trade all the way down was very nice. I also took that one.

Later I was trying to figure out how the entries would fit me and just when the day was ending I took these 2 trades.

221021 - EURUSDM1.png
221021 - EURUSDM1.png (149.73 KiB) Viewed 2513 times

221021 - XAUUSDM1.png
221021 - XAUUSDM1.png (174.6 KiB) Viewed 2513 times


As I was having a red week they were very welcome

Because price went straight up they were easy but with other trades there comes a moment you have to decide if you make it an anchor trade or not. Next week I'll have to try a couple more to see how that can be solved.
Now I also see what you were trying to tell me. There is much more flexibility this way instead of only trying to catch the reversal.

All have a nice weekend.

User avatar
Don_xyZ
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1163
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:15 am
Reputation: 1022
Gender: None specified

Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Don_xyZ » Sat Oct 22, 2022 2:40 am

Yirbu wrote:
Don_xyZ wrote:
I don't know if the information from this post will be useful for any of you. Also as I always said before, I don't know how to teach.


What an extensive post. Thanks Don!
I am sure this post will help.
I'll need some time to digest it and think about al these points.

So far I have only been studying the reversal at the top/bottom of a session.
I'm hoping to master that one first. If price rallies on. That's fine. If I focus on everything in one go...my head will explode...(best case scenario)
This approach together with a deadhorse together with other stuff will prepare me for the markets better.

It's like you said (or something like this) if you go into an MMA ring with just one skill (yellow belt judo)...you just don't stand a chance.


Yes, you must have other skills to be able to capture that small window of chance to knock your opponent out. In forex or trading in general, we have a lot of opponent in 1 trading session. Each and every pattern you observe is your opponent. Will you win the match or will you lose? If you lose, how bad is your injury? If you win, by what? KO (anchor trade)? Point (scalp)? What kind of anchor trade? Fractal? Sam S/D? IF FTR? Ghost entry? Western chart pattern? EW? CSR100? What kind of scalp? BO? IB? Momo? Hatsu? Jiro? Mambo?

Bruce Lee once said... "I'm not afraid afraid of someone who can do 10,000 kicks. I'm afraid of someone who trained 1 kick 10,000 times." This is true, but the market is full of people who have 1,000,000 kicks and train each of them 1,000,000 times :lol: My opinion is if you only master 1 trading tactic then you are too lazy. Why? Because the market provides a lot of pips per trading session and you can't take even 10% of those moves. The market is hyperactive and if you have kids at home, you know what it is and what you have to do... PLAY WITH THEM until you or the kids are exhausted :lol: :lol: :lol: and then you will have the best sleep in centuries! :D



Yirbu wrote:
Don_xyZ wrote:Done for the day.
Good hustling today.
Can you guess which one is my daily anchor trade?

Done for the day chart..png


I would guess trade #5 and #6 for starters.
Hoping to wipe out the asian session

But #10; the last trade is the trade in between London en NY.
It seems that fractals forming just before or after NY open (or London) often turn out quite good.

Now what I would like to know is were you only trading long at that time or not and if so why did you choose the long side?
Did it have something to do with that FVG on the H1? Or what did you see/know that I don't?


My motto is "ultimate top, ultimate bottom, and anything in between" so obviously I took bullish and bearish trades. The "ultimate top and bottom" part refers to anchor trades the "anything in between" is the scalp trades. As for FVG I don't use it, if some of my trades seem to coincide with FVG then it's only coincidence and other times I already entered before FVG appear and sometimes after the FVG.



Yirbu wrote:This morning I tried a gold trade. Everything was going fine, bit of a deep retracement but price seemed to repsect my trendline.
Time to get some coffee. Guess 2 minutes is too long.... :shock:

XAUsmokedforgetting cofee.jpg


ORIGIN OF MOVE - SD type D1.png
ORIGIN OF MOVE - SD type D1.png (66.21 KiB) Viewed 2481 times


ORIGIN OF MOVE - SD type H1.png
ORIGIN OF MOVE - SD type H1.png (83.74 KiB) Viewed 2481 times


earliest move.png
earliest move.png (62 KiB) Viewed 2481 times


The 3rd chart above is the earliest entries I see and it certainly has the potential to become an anchor trade. The first is the anchor bearer, the second is the scalp.

If you have the information from the first 2 charts above (D1, H1) will you hold this earliest trade or not? Obviously this is way more hindsight but even before. The D1 chart showed that the price is already at the lowest of the month and there is a S/D zone from the previous month. And there were signs of trouble on H1 that translates into the red boxes on the chart below.

Hindsight.png
Hindsight.png (79.76 KiB) Viewed 2481 times


After the pattern on H1, the price stalled 2 times and then the low is revisited 2 more times. The 2nd revisit is a chance for you to find and/or improve your odds at making more R and actually there is one trade there worth finding.

Revisited 2 more times.png
Revisited 2 more times.png (65.01 KiB) Viewed 2481 times




Yirbu wrote:
Don_xyZ wrote:Fractals.

There are clear V, A shapes but then there are also the crooked versions. Fractals are not created equal.

When the crooked meets the normal.
Fractals.png

But these are all patterns.

Done for the day. The first daily anchor trade (from the bottom left) did not yield that much as it failed to breach the struggle area on the way up so it had to be cut short. The bearish daily anchor survived and pulled in a lot of profit.

Daily anchor trades.png

Enjoy your weekend, folks!



That's a very interesting picture and something nice for me to study in the weekend. Thank you, you are very kind.
The trade all the way down was very nice. I also took that one.

Later I was trying to figure out how the entries would fit me and just when the day was ending I took these 2 trades.

221021 - EURUSDM1.png
221021 - XAUUSDM1.png

As I was having a red week they were very welcome

Because price went straight up they were easy but with other trades there comes a moment you have to decide if you make it an anchor trade or not. Next week I'll have to try a couple more to see how that can be solved.
Now I also see what you were trying to tell me. There is much more flexibility this way instead of only trying to catch the reversal.

All have a nice weekend.


Good play there.

Fractal play can be used for anchor trade or scalping. The anchor trade fractals target bigger formation, the scalping fractal target nano, micro or mini formations. When you are overly confident, you can have only 1 anchor trade running for the whole session. This confidence will come after you build up your stats and experience. Most of my time, I run 2 types of trade, anchor trade and scalping. This is one of the reasons why I can trade everyday and every market condition coz when the trend is good, I make a killing with my anchor trade with the scalp trades on the side and when the market is sideways I make a killing through scalping. This is ultimate flexibility. If you can do this, I have no doubt your result will improve by at least 10-fold.
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

Image

User avatar
Don_xyZ
rank: 1000+ posts
rank: 1000+ posts
Posts: 1163
Joined: Tue Dec 14, 2010 9:15 am
Reputation: 1022
Gender: None specified

Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Don_xyZ » Sat Oct 22, 2022 3:55 am

How many candles can you use in each box to make money?

boxes.png
boxes.png (55.16 KiB) Viewed 2463 times


10% of the candles? 15%? 20%? 50%? More? The market is giving you so many opportunities and you still don't take them? Scalping is good. You can scalp like normally, you can scalp using parlay, you can go all in, you can go with stacking, you can also combine it with your swing trading or you can turn it into a swing trade.
My threads

Patterns Observation
post148989#p148989

BONZ
post151670#p151670

MENTAL FORTIFICATION
post168148#p168148

Image

Yirbu
rank: 500+ posts
rank: 500+ posts
Posts: 632
Joined: Mon Jun 27, 2022 9:04 am
Reputation: 438
Location: Europe
Gender: Male

Re: Patterns Observation.

Postby Yirbu » Sun Oct 23, 2022 12:47 pm

Don_xyZ wrote:
Yirbu wrote:
Don_xyZ wrote:
I don't know if the information from this post will be useful for any of you. Also as I always said before, I don't know how to teach.


What an extensive post. Thanks Don!
I am sure this post will help.
I'll need some time to digest it and think about al these points.

So far I have only been studying the reversal at the top/bottom of a session.
I'm hoping to master that one first. If price rallies on. That's fine. If I focus on everything in one go...my head will explode...(best case scenario)
This approach together with a deadhorse together with other stuff will prepare me for the markets better.

It's like you said (or something like this) if you go into an MMA ring with just one skill (yellow belt judo)...you just don't stand a chance.


Yes, you must have other skills to be able to capture that small window of chance to knock your opponent out. In forex or trading in general, we have a lot of opponent in 1 trading session. Each and every pattern you observe is your opponent. Will you win the match or will you lose? If you lose, how bad is your injury? If you win, by what? KO (anchor trade)? Point (scalp)? What kind of anchor trade? Fractal? Sam S/D? IF FTR? Ghost entry? Western chart pattern? EW? CSR100? What kind of scalp? BO? IB? Momo? Hatsu? Jiro? Mambo?

Bruce Lee once said... "I'm not afraid afraid of someone who can do 10,000 kicks. I'm afraid of someone who trained 1 kick 10,000 times." This is true, but the market is full of people who have 1,000,000 kicks and train each of them 1,000,000 times :lol: My opinion is if you only master 1 trading tactic then you are too lazy. Why? Because the market provides a lot of pips per trading session and you can't take even 10% of those moves. The market is hyperactive and if you have kids at home, you know what it is and what you have to do... PLAY WITH THEM until you or the kids are exhausted :lol: :lol: :lol: and then you will have the best sleep in centuries! :D


Good play there.

Fractal play can be used for anchor trade or scalping. The anchor trade fractals target bigger formation, the scalping fractal target nano, micro or mini formations. When you are overly confident, you can have only 1 anchor trade running for the whole session. This confidence will come after you build up your stats and experience. Most of my time, I run 2 types of trade, anchor trade and scalping. This is one of the reasons why I can trade everyday and every market condition coz when the trend is good, I make a killing with my anchor trade with the scalp trades on the side and when the market is sideways I make a killing through scalping. This is ultimate flexibility. If you can do this, I have no doubt your result will improve by at least 10-fold.



Nice posts. I have read them and reread the whole thread once more (happy to be "home alone" this weekend :D ). Was backtesting today and yesterday and I thought I would have a 1000 questions. I don't.
Some things became much clearer and I will try to use them in the markets tomorrow and have an idea how I'll do that.
For starters I will stick with the S/D levels and make notes on how to use the fractals later.
Also EU is reaching some very interesting levels next week so let's see what it will bring.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “beginners forum”